2014年2月4日 星期二

新興市場爆資金外逃 歐洲央行謀利率下調 by 陶冬

  上周美國聯儲繼續減少購債,中國採購經理指數跌破50大關,但是資金聚焦於新興市場。新興市場股票遭遇拋售,印度、土耳其和南非央行被迫倉促加息,觸發更大的資金外逃。新興市場浴血,推高了風險指數VIX,資金尋求避險天堂,美元、日元走強,美國十年期國債利率降至2.6%,德國十年期降至1.66%,債券出人意料地受到熱捧。美國的極端氣候推高石油價格,柴油價格飛漲。黃金卻沒有在避險資金上受益,金價出現獲利回吐。Risk off成為市場的主旋律,全球股市走出2011年來最差的一月份表現。

 

  上月總共有122億美元的資金流出新興市場,觸發了那裡的一場股災,拉美市場和土耳其、南非尤其慘烈。一如筆者所言,新興市場本來就是一場等待發生的災難,現在只是開局。過去幾年發達國家在去槓桿,同時央行大量發行貨幣,新興市場則迅速增高債務,增槓桿,出現了一批依賴海外熱錢支撐貿易赤字和財政赤字的國家。當流動性充沛、資金走向配合的時候,這些國家經濟有聲有色,但是三大要素將潛在風險變成現實。首先美國聯儲開始試圖收縮銀根,資金流向逆轉。再者中國經濟進入調整,需求萎縮。另外美元走強,拖累商品價格。三大要素出現共振,令部分新興國家的基本面迅速惡化,資金出走,匯率貶值,通脹壓力加深,央行被迫加息,刺激進一步的資金外逃,債務違約風險驟增,股市、債市一起下挫,集資困難,金融系統性風險乍現。筆者看來,聯儲、中國、美元三大要素一時均難轉勢,新興市場唯有靠央行的外匯儲備硬撐,但是時間拖得愈久,形勢愈不利。新興市場中體弱的經濟率先崩潰,可能只是時間的問題。

 

  美歐央行在貨幣政策上,分歧日漸明顯。美國聯儲沒有理會新興市場的困局,照計劃再減每月100億的債券購買,向退出QE再進一步。耶倫接過伯南克的班,在政策上估計不會有大的改變,不過她駕馭公開市場委員會的能力尚有待觀察。歐洲央行情況則相反。德拉吉對歐洲央行的控制頗為得心應手,但是歐洲經濟卻仍面臨通縮的陰影。筆者認為歐洲央行出手再次降息的機會正在增加,3-5月期間利率下降10-15點的局面逐步成熟,而且不排除歐洲出爐富有創意的新的QE手段。美中英央行進入taper程序,而歐日則再祭QE招數,全球匯市風起雲湧。

 

  本周焦點:新興市場危機和美國非農業就業數據。美國1月非農就業預計增加195K,失業率維持在6.7%。1月非農如不出現大幅反彈,則市場可能將其與12月的超弱數據聯繫在一起,重新審視美國增長前景,不過筆者看好1月的數字。美國ISM料回軟,全球PMI均在回調。貿易逆差可能大幅縮減。歐元區,意大利和西班牙的PMI進一步改善,德國和英國的工業生產應該不錯。歐洲央行例會,估計沒有政策上的改變,不過低通脹、弱貨幣數據加上新興市場動盪之下,德拉吉的言論更值得關注。日本就業市場的現金收入應該有改善,反映花紅上升,但是工資增長依然乏力。在中國,關於新年消費的觀察陸續出籠,對增長走勢的判斷有幫助。

 

  (本欄主要內容每周一9:30am會在央視2台交易時間中出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法,並非任何投資勸誘或建議)



Source: http://lifestyle.etnet.com.hk/column/index.php/wealth/taodong/22761

「你」是U,不是YOU by 嚴浩

我的姪女在大學讀書,雖然我們的基因有關聯,但我懷疑她的DNA已經發生了突變,變成了一種完全新人類:她在講電話的時候可以同時上網同時Facebook同時聽Lady GaGa的最新單曲《Do What U Want》,她告訴我歌名的時候很認真地強調:「是U,不是Y、O、U。」


我只可以在一個時候處理一件事,連講電話的時候旁邊有人多嘴我也無法招架;本來,我以為像我姪女那樣的新人類是人類未來的人辦,然而最近讀到的一份科研報告讓我重新有了自信──美國史丹佛大學挑選了一批特別擅長一心百用的學生進行研究,發現這些新人類的效率並不如想像中高,相反,他們的大腦表現竟然一鍋粥:無法清晰接受信息、無法有效組織資訊、無法過濾不相關的信息、注意力相當分散、無法在需要專心的時候專心。隨之而來的還有更多的警告:過分追求資訊刺激會傷害創造力、會令思考和閱讀的深度受到阻礙……


諸多的負面報告促使研究小組對一心多用者提出警告,並建議每一個人分配時間讓自己沈思靜想,「這如同身體需要睡眠一樣重要」。


我洋洋得意地告訴姪女她已經成為一個高危年齡組別,她衝我聳聳肩:「Well,你很難改變這個時代。」然後埋頭查看手機上的信息。頓時我覺得自己蒼老無助:我連姪女都改變不了呢!

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18613854&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20140204

七 天 天 氣 預 報@香 港 天 文 台 於 2014 年 02 月 04 日 04 時 45 分 發 出 之 天 氣 報 告 by HKO

七 天 天 氣 預 報

天 氣 概 況 :
一 股 清 勁 至 強 風 程 度 的 東 北 季 候 風 會 在 未 來 一 兩 日 
影 響 廣 東 沿 岸 。 預 料 一 股 季 候 風 的 補 充 會 在 週 末 及 
下 週 初 為 華 南 帶 來 寒 冷 及 有 雨 的 天 氣 。 

二 月 四 日 ( 星 期 二 )
風   : 東 風 4 至 5 級 , 間 中 6 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 及 能 見 度 較 低 , 稍 後 有 一 兩 陣 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 17 至 21 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

二 月 五 日 ( 星 期 三 )
風   : 東 風 5 級 , 初 時 間 中 6 級 。 
天 氣 : 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 16 至 19 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 80 至 95 。

二 月 六 日 ( 星 期 四 )
風   : 東 風 4 至 5 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 , 初 時 有 幾 陣 雨 。 早 晚 有 幾 陣 薄 霧 。 
氣 溫 : 17 至 21 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 80 至 95 。

二 月 七 日 ( 星 期 五 )
風   : 東 至 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 , 日 間 短 暫 時 間 有 陽 光 。 早 晚 有 薄 霧 。 
氣 溫 : 18 至 23 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 70 至 95 。

二 月 八 日 ( 星 期 六 )
風   : 東 北 風 4 至 5 級 。 
天 氣 : 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 雨 。 天 氣 轉 涼 。 
氣 溫 : 16 至 19 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

二 月 九 日 ( 星 期 日 )
風   : 東 至 東 北 風 4 至 5 級 , 離 岸 間 中 6 級 。 
天 氣 : 多 雲 有 雨 。 天 氣 相 當 清 涼 。 
氣 溫 : 13 至 16 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 80 至 95 。

二 月 十 日 ( 星 期 一 )
風   : 北 至 東 北 風 4 至 5 級 , 初 時 離 岸 間 中 6 級 。 
天 氣 : 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 雨 。 早 上 天 氣 寒 冷 。 
氣 溫 : 12 至 15 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 80 至 95 。

2 月 3 日 下 午 二 時 北 角  錄 得 之 海 水 溫 度 為 17 度 。
2 月 3 日 上 午 七 時 天 文 台  錄 得 之 土 壤 溫 度 為 :
0.5 米 20.1 度 ;
1.0 米 20.4 度 。

七 天 天 氣 預 報 插 圖
第 一 天 插 圖 編 號 60 - 多 雲 
第 二 天 插 圖 編 號 62 - 微 雨 
第 三 天 插 圖 編 號 60 - 多 雲 
第 四 天 插 圖 編 號 52 - 短 暫 陽 光 
第 五 天 插 圖 編 號 62 - 微 雨 
第 六 天 插 圖 編 號 63 - 雨 
第 七 天 插 圖 編 號 93 - 冷 

天氣報告@香 港 天 文 台 於 2014 年 02 月 04 日 7 時 02 分 發 出 之 天 氣 報 告 by HKO

上 午 7 時 天 文 台 錄 得:
氣 溫 : 18 度
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 85 
天 氣 插 圖: 編 號 60 - 多 雲 

  
本 港 其 他 地 區 的 氣 溫 :

京 士 柏              17 度 ,
黃 竹 坑              18 度 ,
打 鼓 嶺              18 度 ,
流 浮 山              17 度 ,
大 埔                 18 度 ,
沙 田                 18 度 ,
屯 門                 18 度 ,
將 軍 澳              17 度 ,
西 貢                 18 度 ,
長 洲                 18 度 ,
赤 鱲 角              19 度 ,
青 衣                 18 度 ,
石 崗                 18 度 ,
荃 灣 可 觀           17 度 ,
荃 灣 城 門 谷        18 度 ,
香 港 公 園           18 度 ,
筲 箕 灣              17 度 ,
九 龍 城              17 度 ,
跑 馬 地              18 度 ,
黃 大 仙              18 度 ,
赤 柱                 17 度 ,
觀 塘                 17 度 ,
深 水 埗              18 度 。


After Typhoon’s Devastation, a Philippine Town Is Losing Those Who Could Rebuild It - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

TACLOBAN, the Philippines — As Jesse Siozon waited for his grandfather’s funeral to begin, beneath the orange and blue tarps that serve as the roof for the storm-damaged Santo Niño Church, he spoke of a double loss.

His grandfather may well have been the last person in this bedraggled city to succumb to injuries and illnesses brought on by Typhoon Haiyan. And now Mr. Siozon, a 30-year-old nurse, is being forced to leave Tacloban, his family’s hometown for four generations, because efforts to rebuild have stalled and jobs have disappeared for skilled workers like him.

“I wish I could have worked here,” he said, as sunlight streamed through the hole in a stained-glass window donated by his grandfather. “I don’t even have a place to live here.”

Nearly three months after the some of the strongest sustained winds ever recorded drove ashore a wall of water up to 25 feet high, this once-thriving university town and provincial capital shows relatively few signs of economic recovery despite an international rescue effort. At night, it is mainly plunged into darkness, and the few temporary houses completed by the government have been declared too cramped for human habitation.

The city is caught in a spiral of deprivation that will be hard to break, especially given the scope of a catastrophe that killed at least 6,000 people and was the deadliest natural disaster in the world last year.

Without power and other basics, businesses are finding it difficult to recover. And without commerce, the city will continue to lose money — and talent.

The continuing confusion has left this city, which once envisioned becoming a new economic hub, struggling to hold onto young and talented residents. Like Mr. Siozon, they are leaving for work elsewhere in the Philippines’ growing economy.

“The young professionals whom I know have left, because of the quality of life here,” said Jerry T. Yaokasin, the deputy mayor of Tacloban. “When I look around, it is as if it happened yesterday — there is still so much devastation.”

Sitting in a modest second-floor office, in a municipal building where the first floor was gutted by the storm, Mr. Yaokasin checked off the list of people he knows who have left. His cousin, a lawyer, now works for a large company in Manila. The secretary at his church took a job at a call center in Cebu, on another island 100 miles away.

Even students have left. More than a third of the 1,370 students at the University of the Philippines campus here have transferred to other campuses. Another 130 dropped out, some because they could no longer afford to attend. Enrollment has dropped by a third at the 1,900-student ACLC College, which teaches mainly computer skills but has been reduced to classroom lectures because its computers were destroyed in the storm.

The flight of those most able to find opportunities elsewhere is leaving behind a city of the poor, including those left destitute by the typhoon.

Almil Rama is a 35-year-old kindergarten teacher who lost her husband and house in the storm and now lives with her three children in a room rented from a friend.

The storm killed 22 of the kindergartners at her school, San Jose Elementary, and another 94 students soon moved away with their families and have not come back. The school still has 137 kindergartners, but it lost its books and its ceiling fan in the storm. Even if the fan is replaced, there is no power to run it.

“We need electricity,” said Ms. Rama, who lights her rented room with candles.

Some aspects of life in Tacloban have improved since the storm hit on Nov. 8. Relief food and drinking water are available — though Ms. Rama said the cost of drinking water jugs had increased sixfold, absorbing a tenth of her salary. Residents say crime is low, despite the lifting of a curfew imposed in the desperate first days of lawlessness after the storm.

But other problems appear intractable, including the lack of decent housing. The storm destroyed or severely damaged the homes of more than four million people — more than twice as many as in the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, which killed more than 200,000 people but did not steal as many homes from the living.

Many people here are living in tents. The temporary homes rejected by United Nations experts — little more than rows of plywood stalls under a high roof, with shared bathrooms nearby — are being renovated. But widening the living areas will mean fewer families can move in.

And the lack of electricity is a constant worry for those trying to breathe life into the city’s mostly moribund economy and forestall a further exodus.

Running gasoline or diesel generators is prohibitively expensive for many businesses, in some cases costing six times as much as grid electricity. So they operate at less than full capacity, if at all.

That can have a compounding effect. I. P. Car Tech, the biggest truck and car repair shop in the region, can operate only one of its 18 vehicle lifts at a time with its diesel generator. That means many of the thousands of typhoon-damaged cars, trucks and even ambulances needed for commerce and daily life remain unusable.

Energy Secretary C. Jericho Petilla initially promised a restoration of electric service by Christmas Eve, then pushed the target to the end of March. But with fewer than a quarter of the buildings reconnected to the grid at all, even that goal appears elusive.

Complicating matters is the extensive pillaging that took place in the first two weeks after the storm. Roughly 1,100 convicts escaped from three prisons and joined residents in ransacking large areas, sometimes for necessities, sometimes not.

Up to a third of Tacloban’s transformers were torn apart for their copper cores that could be sold for scrap at $220 apiece on the black market. The transformers cost $1,600 apiece to replace, plus labor. Sections of downed power lines were also snipped and stolen for the copper inside, making it impossible to simply send out trucks to lift the lines back onto poles.

In any case, a lack of spare parts means that two of the local utility’s six boom trucks are unusable. So line workers are sent out in vans every day to bundle up downed lines before they, too, can be stolen.

Morale is low: the utility is demanding 4 to 6 hours a day of unpaid overtime from its workers, plus a full unpaid day on Saturdays, though it says it hopes to reimburse them later.

Vendors of crucial supplies like concrete poles have begun demanding cash on delivery from the struggling cooperative.

“I would not be surprised if 12 months from now, there are customers still not connected to the grid,” said Adam Victor, chief executive of the New York-based TransGas Development Systems, which recently completed a detailed assessment.

It was the lack of electricity that helped drive Jesse Siozon, the nurse, away from his beloved hometown, and his calling.

The wiring in the 95-year-old Bethany Hospital, where he worked, was so badly damaged that much of the hospital cannot be reconnected to the grid, even though power to its area has been restored.

The hospital plans to partially reopen in early summer as a small outpatient clinic, and will have scant need for post-surgery nurses like Mr. Siozon.

His new job: working at an Aetna call center in the capital, fielding health insurance questions from Americans.



Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/04/world/asia/after-typhoons-devastation-a-philippine-town-is-losing-those-who-could-rebuild-it.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

Two Families Battered by a Typhoon - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

TACLOBAN, the Philippines — Shortly before dawn, as Typhoon Haiyan thundered ashore, a man took his wife, son and very pregnant daughter on a motorcycle with a sidecar through rising winds to the hospital.

As the pregnant woman, Jay-Anne Pica, struggled through labor, the whipped-up ocean began spilling across the city of Tacloban, slamming like a tsunami, filling homes up to a mile inland with water. One of those homes belonged to Jesus Siozon Sr., a 93-year-old retired furniture maker and store owner who would later become possibly the last person in the city to die from the effects of the typhoon.

The stories of the child born into poverty and the affluent old man who contracted a fatal infection from the floodwaters unfolded separately but in parallel. Their stories illustrate how the typhoon is transforming this city along class lines, perhaps permanently.

When Ms. Pica, 23, who has two other children, arrived at the Eastern Visayas Regional Medical Center just before dawn on Nov. 8, obstetricians quickly determined that the baby was in the wrong position and ordered a cesarean section. Then the electricity failed as the wind and rain brought down power lines and knocked out the hospital’s generator, making surgery impossible.

Perspiring doctors and nurses massaged Ms. Pica’s abdomen in near darkness as they tried to maneuver the baby’s head down for delivery. What they did not know, until floodwaters began pouring across the delivery room floor, was that a storm surge was coursing through the coastal neighborhood around the hospital, drowning many.

Ms. Pica’s father, a fisherman with arms grown strong from years of operating his own 60-foot outrigger canoe, picked up the chair in which his daughter was sitting. Tilting it so she did not fall out, he carried her upstairs to the hospital chapel. The baby, a boy, was successfully delivered soon after, at 8:20 a.m.

But the family’s troubles were just beginning. The baby was not breathing, turning blue instead. So as the wind shrieked and the sea killed thousands of people in the city outside, Ms. Pica and her father, mother and brother began taking turns pumping air by hand into the baby’s lungs.

A half-dozen tiny corpses accumulated in the chapel as other mothers, terrified by the storm and in some cases forced to swim through its waves, gave birth to very premature babies for whom no incubators were available. Hour after hour, the Pica family kept pumping air, willing the baby to live. They gave him a name, Kent Niño Pica, but nicknamed him Baby Yolando, a masculine form of the typhoon’s Philippine name, Yolanda.

They kept pumping tiny puffs of air for two full days. “We had no water, no food, we were so exhausted as we hadn’t slept, but we had to keep pumping,” said Jaraldina Pica, Ms. Pica’s mother.

Finally, slowly, Yolando began to breathe on his own. The family was briefly famous; a television station filmed the baby as air was being pumped into his lungs.

But the family, oblivious to the attention the birth had received because virtually all communications and electricity had been cut off in Tacloban, took the baby home three days later — and disappeared.

Like tens of thousands of other residents, they went to the city airport in hopes of catching a relief flight out. The crew of a United States Air Force C-130 relief plane saw the newborn and immediately gave the family a free flight to Manila, where they moved into a single room in a relative’s house. Not even the baby’s father, a 22-year-old who is in high school, knew where they were.

For the Siozon family, the storm would prove deadly despite their affluence and access to an easier rescue.

When waves began crashing into the family’s three-story house, Mr. Siozon, who used a wheelchair, was stuck on the ground floor in murky water that quickly rose to his neck. Family members carried him upstairs, then began rescuing strangers who managed to crawl out of the water onto the roof of the family’s garage and then in through a window.

Almost as soon as the storm ended, relatives in Manila chartered an 8-seat light plane and flew to rescue Mr. Siozon, the family’s patriarch, and other members, said Jesse Siozon, a grandson. The relatives walked across the city to find them, then pushed the elder Mr. Siozon back to the airport in his wheelchair, carefully negotiating the debris along the way, and flew him and others to Manila.

But Mr. Siozon suffered an infection from the muddy waters that had nearly drowned him. The infection spread, overwhelming his frail body and he died on Jan. 13. National records show no subsequent typhoon-related deaths. Municipal leaders in Tacloban, Palo and Tanauan — the three cities that together accounted for three-quarters of the typhoon-related fatalities — said they were not aware of any later deaths connected to the storm.

The family brought Mr. Siozon’s body home to Tacloban for burial. Three Knights of Columbus in full regalia stood with drawn swords around his coffin during a recent funeral service at the Santo Niño Church. After the service, his grandson Jesse Siozon and other family members headed to the airport for the next flight to Manila.

Like many of the city’s wealthier and better educated residents, they are leaving, at least for now, for work. There are few skilled jobs left in this once-thriving city, which has so far shown few signs of economic recovery. With little electricity, and few undamaged buildings, the city’s businesses are struggling to restart.

The Picas, by contrast, have returned to Tacloban for good. They have rebuilt an unpainted plywood house with a corrugated steel roof and a United Nations refugee tent next door. It is on a site owned by a relative where they had previously lived in a wood house that was flattened by the typhoon. The elder Mr. Pica lost his boat and nets in the storm, and no one in the clan has a job. They are able to survive on the relief food that is still being distributed, but that may stop as soon as March.

As Baby Yolando approaches his three-month birthday on Saturday, he is alert and healthy, and regularly breast-fed by his mother. But his grandmother, Jaraldina Pica, worries about the future, saying that, “I don’t know what we’ll do when the aid stops.”



Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/04/world/asia/two-families-battered-by-a-typhoon.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

頭條日報 頭條網 - It is a load of bunk by Michael Chugani

I am of two minds about feng shui. Sometimes I believe in it, especially when feng shui experts tell me I will have good fortune. But sometimes I think it is a load of bunk, especially when feng shui experts say I will have bad luck. Last week I interviewed feng shui expert Chiang Hong-man on my TV show. I asked him if Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, who was born in the Year of the Horse, will have good fortune in this Year of the Wooden Horse. He told me C.Y. Leung will have bad luck.

        H e said all those born in a horse year will have bad luck during horse years. It is the same for all animal signs except the dragon. Those born in a dragon year will have good luck during dragon years. Is it true, or a load of bunk? I am of two minds. If you are of two minds, it means you are unable to decide. In British English, the expression is “in two minds”. I am unable to decide (in two minds) whether to believe in feng shui. The slang expression “a load of bunk” means nonsense. It is the same as “a load of rubbish”. Some people refer to feng shui as “geomancy”.

        Chiang Hong-man said the Year of the Horse will bring fires, revolutions, and other troubles around the world but Hong Kong will enjoy good luck because of a southern star. He said the world situation would improve towards the end of the year. Even though this will be a troublesome year, those born in the Years of the Tiger, Sheep, and Ox should take heart. To “take heart” means to be hopeful or encouraged. Chiang Hong-man said they should take heart because it will be a lucky year for them. But it will be a bad year for those born in the Year of the Rat. I advise C.Y. Leung and those born in the Years of the Horse and Rat to take heart anyway. They can tell themselves it is a load of bunk. I wish you all a prosperous and healthy Year of the Horse.

        * * *

        我拿不定主意(of two minds),不知該信不信風水(feng shui)是好。有時我會深信不疑,尤其是當風水師傅說我會有好運時;可有時我覺得那只是一派胡言(a load of bunk),尤其是當風水(feng shui)師說我會有厄運時。上星期我在電視節目上訪問了風水(feng shui)師蔣匡文。我問他,馬年出生的特首梁振英,在這個馬年會有好運嗎?他跟我說,梁振英將會很倒楣。

        他說,所有在馬年出世的在馬年都是運氣平平。所有生肖也是,惟獨龍年除外。龍年出生的人,在龍年都會有好運。這是真的嗎?抑或只是胡說八道(a load of bunk)?我很猶豫不決(of two minds)。要是你of two minds,那即是你舉棋不定、三心兩意。英式英語的習語則是in two minds。我很猶豫(in two minds),不知是否該相信風水(feng shui)。俗語a load of bunk解作胡說八道,跟a load of rubbish的意思一樣。也有人將風水的英文feng shui稱為geomancy。

        蔣匡文說,馬年將會為世界各地帶來戰火、革命和其他騷亂,但香港仍然行好運,因為有顆南方之星照耀着。雖然這會是多事之年,但虎、羊、牛年出世的朋友則可以振作(take heart)了。To take heart解作充滿希望或很受鼓舞。蔣匡文說他們可以大得鼓舞,因為這一年將會是他們的好運之年,但鼠年出世的今年就沒甚麼好運了。我會建議梁振英,與在馬年和鼠年出世的也振作起來(take heart),跟自己說那通通都是一派胡言(a load of bunk)。謹祝你們每個都有富裕和健康的馬年!

        mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

Source: http://news.stheadline.com/dailynews/headline_news_detail_columnist.asp?id=272887§ion_name=wtt&kw=126

「你」是U,不是YOU by 嚴浩

我的姪女在大學讀書,雖然我們的基因有關聯,但我懷疑她的DNA已經發生了突變,變成了一種完全新人類:她在講電話的時候可以同時上網同時Facebook同時聽Lady GaGa的最新單曲《Do What U Want》,她告訴我歌名的時候很認真地強調:「是U,不是Y、O、U。」


我只可以在一個時候處理一件事,連講電話的時候旁邊有人多嘴我也無法招架;本來,我以為像我姪女那樣的新人類是人類未來的人辦,然而最近讀到的一份科研報告讓我重新有了自信──美國史丹佛大學挑選了一批特別擅長一心百用的學生進行研究,發現這些新人類的效率並不如想像中高,相反,他們的大腦表現竟然一鍋粥:無法清晰接受信息、無法有效組織資訊、無法過濾不相關的信息、注意力相當分散、無法在需要專心的時候專心。隨之而來的還有更多的警告:過分追求資訊刺激會傷害創造力、會令思考和閱讀的深度受到阻礙……


諸多的負面報告促使研究小組對一心多用者提出警告,並建議每一個人分配時間讓自己沈思靜想,「這如同身體需要睡眠一樣重要」。


我洋洋得意地告訴姪女她已經成為一個高危年齡組別,她衝我聳聳肩:「Well,你很難改變這個時代。」然後埋頭查看手機上的信息。頓時我覺得自己蒼老無助:我連姪女都改變不了呢!

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18613854&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20140204

鮮肉鄉愁 by 李碧華

泡溫泉有一條龍式服務(當然每項收費),如美容、護膚、擦澡、按摩……擦澡是全身去死皮,每回做過特別舒適、輕快,而服務員很多來自中國大陸和南韓。


有一位做得很好,大陸人,四十多歲。她告知已來大阪十多年了,再嫁給日本人,把兒子帶此定居,在唸大學。沒提到二婚是否如意,不過她認為自食其力也很快樂,會一直做下去。平日沒娛樂,只愛煮些好吃的。提到熬雞湯豬肉湯大骨湯,她道:「十多年來都吃不到新鮮的還會晃動的肉。」


我說:「香港人也二十一天沒活雞吃,因為佛山順德一個雞場驗出致命H7N9病毒,所以香港殺了兩萬活雞還下禁令。」


「宰隻雞好過年這習俗,我都快忘了,只能到上海新天地和韓國人市場買,但全是凍肉,沒肉味,不香,將就着吃。」


「附近不是有黑門市場嗎?魚介和水果倒是十分新鮮。」


「你們來為了刺身,我們渴望吃新鮮豬肉,因為過年了想着媽媽的菜。我媽病了我回不去。只想熬鍋肉湯和她一起吃。」


說着,她動作慢了一點……

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18613848&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20140204

滅粵難 by 陶傑

香港特區教育局長吳克儉下令「普通話教學」,以實現全面取締粵語。


中國仇恨粵語,有強烈的政治理由。史上粵人以叛逆作反稱著,顛覆大清中國的逆賊孫中山、汪精衛、洪秀全,皆是廣東人。清末一干遺民有四處籌組「義軍」,企圖反清復明者,還有一個屈大均,也是廣東人。屈大均不愛大清國,但熱愛廣東,曾遊歷粵省,將廣東有什麼好玩的山水,何等奇趣的習俗,什麼好吃的東西,寫成一冊筆記「廣東新語」。


蔣中正是浙江人,用人一向不喜粵籍,連同廣西與雲南,國軍的粵系桂系,像薛岳、張發奎、李漢魂、白崇禧、李宗仁,蔣氏一向視同異類。兩廣與雲南一樣,有山嶺屏障的天險,雲南的龍雲和盧漢,亦與蔣有暗隙。蔣介石不喜南方人,在心理上,還有汪精衛和廖仲愷這兩個廣東人,一度是廣東人孫中山的嫡系門生。廣東人是中華民國之母,江浙人繼承了政權,大概有幾分心虛,汪兆銘想做主席,多少也有幾分為廣東人復辟的意思。


毛澤東更厭惡廣東人,手下將軍除了一個梅縣客家葉劍英,無一是粵籍。廣東人葉劍英果然反骨,「文革」期間帶着一伙將領「大鬧懷仁堂」,是為「二月逆流」。毛澤東對葉劍英只解除兵權,因為葉劍英本來在張國燾名下,張國燾出走時,葉劍英密報毛澤東,救了毛澤東一命,毛澤東留下葉劍英這條命,事實證明,犯下大錯,死後就是這個廣東人慫恿華國鋒,活捉了江青,廢掉了毛主席的接班大計。


有此歷史因由,粵人既是心腹大患,中國絕不可能容許粵語及其文化流傳,不滅粵,必為粵滅。這一點絕不是什麼「平機會」處理得了的。


不過吳克儉想廢廣東話,在香港也很困難。首先,「基本法」規定香港生活方式五十年不變,粵語就是最基本的生活方式。此外提倡講「普通話」,特府梁班子應該帶頭:梁振英讀「施政報告」,曾財爺讀預算案,今年起應改以「普通話」讀出,然後立法會再由民建聯帶頭,以普通話和應,工商界的議員跟隨,將堅持說粵語的泛民孤立起來。不如此,所謂普通話,不可能推廣,但一這樣做,必演變成一場戰爭,不過梁班子最好鬥,與人鬥爭,其樂無窮,全面開戰,也很好。

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18613846&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20140204