Readers Respond on the State of the Middle Class - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-07-31

The next major step in our story on the plight of the American economy - part of The Times's Agenda series - is to examine the causes. As I noted in the initial post, median family income in this country is lower today than 12 years ago, a stretch unlike any other since the 1930s.

On the most basic level, the causes are a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in income inequality: the pie is growing more slowly, and a large share of the gains is going to a small portion of the population. But that statement is as much an accounting statement as anything else. It doesn't explain the forces driving the changes.

More than 700 comments have been posted on that post, and many of these addressed underlying causes. Below, we are excerpting a selection of those comments, because we assume that most readers did not have time to read hundreds of them.

I am also using the responses to help me write a survey I'm sending to a range of economists asking them to discuss what they see as the most important causes. Some may rank causes or put them in different buckets of importance. Others may use the survey as inspiration to write a few paragraphs laying out their views.

In coming days and weeks, we'll be posting the survey itself and then the economists' responses. Other Times writers will also be posting items on these issues. And we welcome continued reader feedback at every step.

Here is a sampling of those reader comments:

"Most of the income gains seen in my lifetime have been created by families going on afterburners -- sending the other adult out to work. Now, we are seeing families going backwards, but that may be a good thing. But we will need to learn to get by on less, especially if competition by foreign workers accelerates." -- jstewart58

"Interesting that this appears on the same page as the article about Caterpillar. Is it really necessary for them to freeze wages when they are making record profits? You can bet that the upper echelon of company officers will not have frozen wages. There are many hard issues that contribute to the problem, global wage competition, automation, poor education, but these are exacerbated by actions taken by companies like Caterpillar." -- Oh Please

"Population growth in the USA as well as in Europe has slowed considerably. One of the options is to liberalize immigration, which will attract talented people as well as wealthy people from other countries. This will result in economic growth by the new immigrants spending money by opening new businesses and improving employment prospects for locals." -- VGM

"I have a theory the middle class aren't making more because the Government is taking more. Publish that chart and prove me wrong." -- Richard

"People working in manufacturing industries that lacked strong unions were always poorly compensated. It's just that now there are very few industries that are unionized and the pressure to compensate employees has declined across the board." -- Ross Williams

"Shouldn't you use an income number that captures the value of benefits received by Households? With health care costs increasing at a much faster rate than inflation, health care (and health insurance), is eating up wage/income gains ... Employees need to understand that money spent on them -- whether wages or benefits -- is fungible from the standpoint of the employer. Ignoring these in-kind benefits overstates the share of income that goes to the top and understates the amount that goes to everyone else." -- Joel Pond

"Since WWII, the idea that one is solely responsible for their own success has widely taken root and the generations since have increasingly failed to acknowledge that success is the product of both individual initiative/hard work AND opportunity. The first generation that had the privilege of combining hard work with unprecedented levels of opportunity was the baby boomers and, speaking very generally, they seemed to forget the opportunity component as they rose through the professional ranks of business and government. This explains policies that reward the haves while eroding the opportunity (education, health care, higher minimum wages, pensions) that allows have-nots to use their individual initiative to pull themselves out of the lower classes." -- Dan

"I would like to know what happened in the Clinton years (and before) that led to the rise in income as well as the surplus at the federal level in those years, and why that is, or isn't, possible now."-- mennenster

"The uncomfortable truth is that America's economy has progressed beyond blue collar jobs and is now a service economy. Our biggest export is knowledge (in the form of technology, patents, business, etc), and is no longer 'stuff.' So it is slightly misguided to blame manufacturing companies that don't pay workers higher wages, because these companies are no longer in industries where their workers can demand a premium."-- Austin

"Tax cuts for the rich have turbocharged inequality, beginning with Reagan and culminating with Bush II. To afford these tax cuts, we've cut everything else that helps the middle class, especially really great public schools."-- Carol

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Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/readers-respond-on-the-state-of-the-middle-class/?pagewanted=print

展望倫敦奧運的中國成績 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

26 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　2012年的倫敦奧運，中國代表團能拿下多少面金牌，這是許多人關注的焦點。

 

　　中國代表團於1984年洛杉磯奧運會才開始參加奧運賽事，當屆賽事首面金牌由中國射擊選手許海峰憑男子50米手槍60發奪得；體操選手李寧以驚人表現，一人獨得男子體操共3面金牌。總結該屆奧運，中國代表團一共取得15面金牌。

 

　　到1988年漢城奧運，中國未能發揮水準，只得5面金牌，當中2面來自新加入成為奧運項目的乒乓球，另外3面分別在跳水及體操項目奪得。1992年巴塞隆納奧運，中國共取得16面金牌，其中有「5朵金花」之稱的王曉紅、楊文意、莊泳、錢紅與林莉在游泳項目大放異彩；另外，年僅14歲的跳水選手伏明霞首次參加奧運便獲得女子10米高台項目金牌，備受觸目。

 

　　到1996年亞特蘭大奧運。中國也一共拿下16面金牌，而且令人刮目相看。首先是羽毛球項目，中國實現金牌「零的突破」，葛菲、顧俊這對女雙選手，順利擊敗死對頭南韓的吉永雅、張惠玉。其次是中國跳水王子熊倪，也坐上男子3米跳板跳水項目王座。對香港人來說，最難忘自是帆船選手李麗珊，成為滑浪風帆項目后冠。

 

　　2000年的悉尼奧運，中國以28面金牌首次躋身奧運金牌榜前3名，取得歷史性突破，其中伏明霞在女子3米跳板達成連續3屆奧運奪得金牌創舉。到2004年雅典奧運， 中國取得了32枚金牌，首次超越俄羅斯位居金牌榜第2位，落後金牌大戶美國只有3塊金牌，當中劉翔在男子110跨欄決賽以平世界紀錄成績奪得中國首面男子田徑奧運會金牌。

 

　　2008年的北京奧運， 中國隊借東道主之力，取得了51面金牌，在金牌榜上首次超越美國15面，名列第1，其中仲滿奪得中國男子擊劍首面金牌；殷劍奪得中國首面帆船金牌；陸春龍和何雯娜奪得中國首面男女子蹦床金牌。但2012年的倫敦奧運，中國能否延續自1996年亞特蘭大奧運以來的「步步高」趨勢，頗成疑問。

 

　　一般推測，4年前的北京奧運，中國的成績是憑藉不斷上升的競技體育實力以及地利人和的優勢，但在今屆的倫敦奧運，中國應難以複制此一輝煌，其中既有項目調整、規則改變、人員換代等原因，也不能排除欠缺東道主因素。合理的定位，應介乎2004年雅典奧運的32金以上，2008年北京奧運的51金以下，相信有坐望37面金牌的實力。

 

　　今屆奧運，中國一些傳統優勢項目，如射擊、跳水、乒乓球、羽毛球等，奪金應無問題，至於金牌「縮水」的項目，首先是體操隊，2008年北京奧運曾夢幻般奪走9 金，但如今這種獨步天下的局面應已不再，除了程菲因傷缺陣，主要競爭對手日本隊肯定想分走一些蛋糕。其次是北京奧運會上攬得3金的柔道隊，如今勢頭最勁的只有一個女將佟文，且是個老將。

 

　　在奧運各種競技項目，中國田徑的底子一向薄弱，4年前北京奧運竟無一金進賬，作為東道主顯得相當尷尬。不過今屆奧運，最有看頭反而不是劉翔的110米欄，而是女子鐵餅項目的李艷鳳，希望她能為中國爭金。

 

The Agenda: A Closer Look at Middle Class Decline - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-07-23

No one can accuse the presidential campaign of ignoring the American economy or the plight of the middle class. Yet the scale and the complexity of the problem are typically lost amid the charged back-and-forth between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

For the first time since the Great Depression, middle-class families have been losing ground for more than a decade. They, and the poor, have struggled particularly badly since the financial crisis led to a global recession in 2008. The idea that living standards inevitably improve from one generation to the next is under threat. Many of the bedrock assumptions of American culture -- about work, progress, fairness and optimism -- are being shaken. Arguably no question is more central to the country's global standing than whether the economy will perform better in the future than it has in the recent past.

Over the next few months on this blog, several colleagues and I will look in some detail at the challenge and at possible ways forward, and we'll encourage you to weigh in with questions, ideas and other feedback. Later in the presidential campaign, I'll produce an article with my take, with the hope that it will serve as a jumping off point to further debate. This article will be one of a handful that The Times produces on the biggest issues facing the country as it chooses its leader for the next four years. We're calling the series the Agenda.

Heading into the project, I see the economy's problems along these broad lines:

Since median inflation-adjusted family income peaked in 2000 at $64,232, it has fallen roughly 6 percent. You won't find another 12-year period with an income decline since the aftermath of the Depression.

This unhappy phenomenon has two major sources. First, economic growth in this country has been relatively slow in recent years, which means the total bounty that the American economy produces, to be shared by all of its citizens, has not been growing very rapidly. Even before the financial crisis began in 2008, economic growth in the decade that started in 2001 was on pace to be slower than growth in any decade since World War II.

Then of course came a deep recession that caused the economy to shrink.

In addition to the slow growth in overall size of the pie, the share that has been going to anyone but the richest Americans has been declining. The top-earning 1 percent of households now bring home about 20 percent of total income, up from less than 10 percent 40 years ago. The top-earning 1/10,000th of households -- each earning at least $7.8 million a year, many of them working in finance -- bring home almost 5 percent of income, up from 1 percent 40 years ago.

In the simplest terms, the relatively meager gains the American economy has produced in recent years have largely flowed to a small segment of the most affluent households, leaving middle-class and poor households with slow-growing living standards.

Why has economic growth slowed and income inequality soared? We invite readers to make their own case or simply to raise questions and possibilities. To do so, you can post a comment below or send an e-mail to agenda@nytimes.com.

In the next installment, we'll start to dig into the causes.

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Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/23/a-closer-look-at-middle-class-decline/?pagewanted=print

Slight Decline in the Jobs Outlook - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-07-20

The economic data was just weak enough this week to cause a slight decline in The Times's weekly election-year job tracker. The economists at Moody's Analytics now forecast average monthly job growth of 129,000 in the six months leading up to election, down from a forecast of 131,000 a week ago.

The economists write:

Good news on the economy is scarce; our estimate of second-quarter GDP has been lowered several times, and now is close to 1% annualized. This pace of growth is unlikely to spur faster business hiring, thus the job market will not improve significantly in the third quarter. Not only is spending on a weak trajectory, but it is increasingly difficult to see what would spark stronger growth over the remainder of 2012.

Uncertainty about the economy and U.S. fiscal situation is leading us to lower our forecast for job growth leading up to the election. This was an underlying theme of the Fed's latest Beige Book, which noted that firms are delaying adding full-time workers. We are also unlikely to get clarity on the U.S. fiscal situation until after the presidential election, keeping the job market recovery in low gear.

The forecast for rate of growth remains in a range that would suggest a close presidential election. As we have noted before:

Historically, nothing - not social issues, campaign advertisements or gaffes - has influenced voters more heavily than the direction of the economy in an election year. In only three races since World War II has the outcome been different from what the economy's direction would have suggested: 1952 (when the popular Dwight D. Eisenhower was running), 1968 (when the Vietnam War hobbled the Democrats) and 1976 (when Watergate hobbled the Republicans).

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Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/slight-decline-in-the-jobs-outlook/?pagewanted=print

醜聞不絕，憂喜參半 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

19 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　最近香港的醜聞不絕，先是廉政公署已正式落案起訴前政務司司長許仕仁、新鴻基地產聯席主席郭炳江和郭炳聯等五人，控告五人串謀向公職人員提供利益及公職人員行為失當等八項罪名，其中許仕仁便涉及全部八項控罪，成為歷來被檢控的最高級前任官員，所接受的現金和無抵押貸款等高逾3,500萬元。

 

　　政務司司長一職，位高權重，僅次於特首，當年許仕仁出任此一職位，更被人冠以「橋王」稱號，如今惹上官非，未知是否「機關算盡太聰明」﹖雖然罪名是否成立，尚是未知數，但發生此一事故，已是有損香港多年來建立的廉潔和誠信聲譽，難道是特區政府走向腐敗的先兆﹖這確是令人擔憂的事。

 

　　其次，現時新一屆特區政府的新班子，風雨交加，不斷受負面新聞影響，舉步為艱。例如特首梁振英的僭建問題，始終是懸案，即使在立法會的答辯，他也未能給人以滿意答案，避重就輕，令其施政欠缺信實基礎。

 

　　而且除了特首梁振英的僭建，新班子的其他局長，例如食物及衛生局局長高永文，已承認在2005年購入的畢架山相連住宅，在沒有向屋宇署申請下，擅自打通，拆去單位內露台及天台的牆，他為此向公眾致歉。另外，商務及經濟發展局局長蘇錦樑及教育局局長吳克儉，其住所原來也有僭建。這些都涉及官員的操守，難免令人覺得梁班子的能力有待檢討。

 

　　更嚴重的事件，則是已辭任發展局局長的麥齊光，因涉嫌騙取政府的租金津貼已被廉署拘捕。表面上麥齊光是與另一公務員互租對方單位，並無違規，但在媒體的不斷追查下，發現兩人又互相授權出售對方單位，而兩人並無移民海外，這種合約安排並不尋常，令人聯想兩人所租住的單位，可能是各自名下的物業，而以房津作為供樓之用。

 

　　上述事件對特區政府都是不利的，但憂慮之中，仍有令人喜悅的一面，可說是憂喜參半。這要從德國哲學家哈貝馬斯(J˙Habermas)的「公共領域」說起。所謂「公共領域」，哈貝馬斯定義為「一種用於交流信息和觀點的網絡」，而且從「公共領域」而來的言論，形成了傳統上所謂「三權分立」(行政、立法、司法)以外的「第四權」。第四權是約定俗成，自然而然出現的，指的是媒體和公眾視聽。

 

　　第四權的觀點認為，媒體在憲法上擔負著一個非官方，但卻是中心的角色，有助公眾了解問題和發表見解，因而成為對政府的一種制衡。事實上，在新聞自由的國家，記者一向有「無冕王」的稱號，像美國的水門事件，全靠媒體鍥而不捨的追查，終於將總統拉了下馬。而今次特區政府的連串醜聞，也要歸功於媒體的報導，讓市民擁有知情權，看到事情的真相。

 

　　當然，要達到第四權的功能，媒體就必須獨立和免於受到審查，否則媒體一旦是為管治者服務，一樣變成官官相衛，無法剷除貪腐。而且即使發揮了第四權對官員的監察，仍需要有像廉署和司法機構秉公辦理，一視同仁。香港的體制，今日仍具有這種作用，還是令人感到欣慰的。

 

Latest Data Doesn't Move the Political Needle - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-07-12

Even with the fall in jobless claims, the economic data was close enough to expectations this week that the The Times election year's jobs tracker remains unchanged. Moody's Analytics continues to forecast a gradual improvement in job growth in coming months, suggesting a close presidential election.

In Friday's Times, Annie Lowrey has more details on why economists expect the economy to improve this year, with some specific attention to oil prices.

Previous posts have more detail on the weekly jobs tracker. In brief:

Historically, nothing - not social issues, campaign advertisements or gaffes - has influenced voters more heavily than the direction of the economy in an election year. In only three races since World War II has the outcome been different from what the economy's direction would have suggested: 1952 (when the popular Dwight D. Eisenhower was running), 1968 (when the Vietnam War hobbled the Democrats) and 1976 (when Watergate hobbled the Republicans).

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Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/latest-data-doesnt-move-the-political-needle/?pagewanted=print

特區管治能否使雜牌軍變生力軍? / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

5 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　新任特首梁振英所構想的5司14局趕不及在七月一日前上馬，如今以3司12局的新班子與港人見面，其名單如下：

 

　　政務司、財政司、律政司的司長分別是林鄭月娥、曾俊華和袁國強；公務員事務局、民政事務局、保安局、政制及內地事務局的局長分別是鄧國威、曾德成、黎棟國和譚志源；食物及衛生局、財經事務及庫務局、教育局及發展局的局長分別是高永文、陳家強、吳克儉和麥齊光；商務及經濟發展局、運輸及房屋局、勞工及福利局、環境局的局長分別是蘇錦樑、張炳良、張建宗和黃錦星。

 

　　這個新班子，若與董建華及曾蔭權上任時的治港班子相比，已給人今不如昔的感覺。事實上，新班子不見得比原有架構的問責官員好得了多少。而且以問責制而論，問責官員若不能處理自己範圍的事務，早應下台。從此一觀點看，如今有六名問責官員從原位過渡，其中最高級是曾俊華，其留任令人失望。

 

　　曾俊華是讀建築出身，是否懂財經令人生疑。他的「理財」作風一向像「守財奴」，每年都嚴重低估政府財政盈餘，對這些盈餘又不懂如何投放，只會以短視的「派糖」方式解決，去年甚至創出香港開埠以來首次人人直接派錢，如此理財早應下台。以港府現時豐厚的財政儲備，理應有能力撥出更多資源投放於教育、醫療和基建等開支，肩負對香港未來發展的長遠承擔。如今讓他留任，難道香港真的沒有財經人才﹖

 

　　又如以袁國強為律政司司長，是否妥當也有商榷餘地。一來業界認為他擔任大律師公會主席期間，近乎銷聲匿跡，鮮有為香港的法治環境發聲﹔二來他曾是廣東省政協，如今雖已辭去該職，但香港核心價值講求司法獨立，瓜田李下之嫌總難避免，他能否如上任司長黃仁龍一樣堅持不釋法，不無疑問。

 

　　再說，新班子中，部分留任的局長如曾德成，政績備受質疑，民望不高。而且七張新面孔不乏毫無施政經驗的，如吳克儉、黃錦星、張炳良和高永文等，上任後都要面對不同挑戰。難怪有立法會議員認為，新班子有如「不夠班的弱班子」，是「未夠班」的雜牌軍，更有些是用人唯親，缺乏信譽。

 

　　所謂「雜牌軍」，是指有別於嫡系部隊的旁支部隊。梁振英不是沒有嫡系部隊，他的「近衛軍」，都擺放在他所委任的行政會議成員，例如在選戰中為他衝鋒陷陣的羅范椒芬和張震遠，策謀獻計的張志剛，做法律顧問的資深大狀廖長城等，這些親信如今都進入行政會議，是決策層核心的核心。至於問責官員，則是烏合之眾，確有點似雜牌軍。

 

　　其實最佳的管治，是《易經》乾卦說的，「用九，見群龍無首，吉」，走在一起的每一個人，能力一樣強，意志一樣堅，目標高度一致。至於烏合之眾，則是指一群人沒有共同目標或穩定的相互聯繫，各自想各自的，無法形成團隊，而且共處一個空間還不免造成內耗。究竟能否使雜牌軍變生力軍，除了要看梁振英的領導能力，更要看新任的政務司司長林鄭月娥能否把其新班子磨合起來。