2013年9月2日 星期一

Fast and Flawed Inspections of Factories Abroad - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

Inspectors came and went from a Walmart-certified factory in Guangdong Province in China, approving its production of more than $2 million in specialty items that would land on Walmart’s shelves in time for Christmas.

But unknown to the inspectors, none of the playful items, including reindeer suits and Mrs. Claus dresses for dogs, that were supplied to Walmart had been manufactured at the factory. Instead, Chinese workers sewed the goods — which had been ordered by the Quaker Pet Group, a company based in New Jersey — at a rogue factory that had not gone through the certification process set by Walmart for labor, worker safety or quality, according to documents and interviews with officials involved.

To receive approval for shipment to Walmart, a Quaker subcontractor just moved the items over to the approved factory, where they were presented to inspectors as though they had been stitched together there and never left the premises.

Soon after the merchandise reached Walmart stores, it began falling apart.

Fifteen hundred miles to the west, the Rosita Knitwear factory in northwestern Bangladesh — which made sweaters for companies across Europe — passed an inspection audit with high grades. A team of four monitors gave the factory hundreds of approving check marks. In all 12 major categories, including working hours, compensation, management practices and health and safety, the factory received the top grade of “good.” “Working Conditions — No complaints from the workers,” the auditors wrote.

In February 2012, 10 months after that inspection, Rosita’s workers rampaged through the factory, vandalizing its machinery and accusing management of reneging on promised raises, bonuses and overtime pay. Some claimed that they had been sexually harassed or beaten by guards. Not a hint of those grievances was reported in the audit.

As Western companies overwhelmingly turn to low-wage countries far away from corporate headquarters to produce cheap apparel, electronics and other goods, factory inspections have become a vital link in the supply chain of overseas production.

An extensive examination by The New York Times reveals how the inspection system intended to protect workers and ensure manufacturing quality is riddled with flaws. The inspections are often so superficial that they omit the most fundamental workplace safeguards like fire escapes. And even when inspectors are tough, factory managers find ways to trick them and hide serious violations, like child labor or locked exit doors. Dangerous conditions cited in the audits frequently take months to correct, often with little enforcement or follow-through to guarantee compliance.

Dara O’Rourke, a global supply chain expert at the University of California, Berkeley, said little had improved in 20 years of factory monitoring, especially with increased use of the cheaper “check the box” inspections at thousands of factories. “The auditors are put under greater pressure on speed, and they’re not able to keep up with what’s really going on in the apparel industry,” he said. “We see factories and brands passing audits but failing the factories’ workers.”

Still, major companies including Walmart, Apple, Gap and Nike turn to monitoring not just to check that production is on time and of adequate quality, but also to project a corporate image that aims to assure consumers that they do not use Dickensian sweatshops. Moreover, Western companies now depend on inspectors to uncover hazardous work conditions, like faulty electrical wiring or blocked stairways, that have exposed some corporations to charges of irresponsibility and exploitation after factory disasters that killed hundreds of workers.

The Rana Plaza factory collapse in Bangladesh, which killed 1,129 workers in April, intensified international scrutiny on factory monitoring, and pressured the world’s biggest retailers to sign on to agreements to tighten inspection standards and upgrade safety measures. While many groups consider the accords a significant advance, some longtime auditors and labor groups voice skepticism that inspection systems alone can ensure a safe workplace. After all, they say, the number of audits at Bangladesh factories has steadily increased as the country has become one of the world’s largest garment exporters, and still 1,800 workers there have died in workplace disasters in the last 10 years.

“We’ve been auditing factories in Bangladesh for 20 years, and I wonder: ‘Why aren’t these things changing? Why aren’t things getting better?’ ” said Rachelle Jackson, the director of sustainability and innovation at Arche Advisors, a monitoring group based in California.

Even with American and European companies appointing executives this summer to put in place a stricter regimen of inspections and safeguards under the new agreements, these efforts are limited to Bangladesh. Other leading garment-producing nations, like China, Honduras, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam, are not getting such stepped-up attention or expanded inspections. Thousands of factories in those countries will no doubt continue to be reviewed through the perfunctory “check the box” audits.

Trouble With Audits

Factory monitoring companies have established a booming business in the two decades since Gap, Nike, Walmart and others were tarnished by disclosures that their overseas factories employed underage workers and engaged in other abusive workplace practices. Each year, these monitoring companies assess more than 50,000 factories worldwide that employ millions of workers. Walmart alone commissioned more than 11,500 inspections last year. Spurred by heightened demand for monitoring, the share prices of three of the biggest publicly traded monitoring companies, SGS, Intertek and Bureau Veritas, have all increased about 50 percent from two years ago.

The inspections carry enormous weight with factory owners, who stand to win or lose millions of dollars in orders depending on their ratings. With stakes so high, factory managers have been known to try to trick or cheat the auditors. Bribery offers are not unheard-of. Often notified beforehand about an inspector’s visit, factory managers will unlock fire exit doors, unblock cluttered stairwells or tell underage child laborers not to show up at work that week.

Unauthorized subcontracting, or farming work out, to an unapproved factory (as was the case for the Quaker Pet Group order in China), is “very, very common,” according to Gary Peck, founder and managing director of the S Group, a design and sourcing company based in Portland, Ore.

Though almost all retailers prohibit the practice in their contracts, suppliers still do it to save money, speed production and meet high-volume orders.

And even inspections conducted at authorized factories can be deeply flawed. When NTD Apparel, a contractor for Walmart that is based in Montreal, hired a firm to inspect the Tazreen factory in Bangladesh before 112 workers died in a fire in November, the monitors’ questionnaire asked whether the factory had the proper number of fire extinguishers and smoke detectors on each floor. But it did not call for checking whether the factory had fire escapes or enclosed, fireproof stairways, which safety experts say could have saved lives.

“If it’s a check-the-box inspection, you better have the right boxes to look at,” said Daniel Viederman, chief executive of Verité, a nonprofit monitoring group.

Sajeev Jesudas, president of UL Verification Services, which conducted the Tazreen audit, said inspecting for fire escapes and fireproof stairways was “the responsibility of the local building inspectors.” Bangladesh has been faulted for having far too few officials to inspect factories.

Greg Gardner, the chief executive of Arche Advisors, said Western retailers and brands often seek different levels of audits. Some, like Levi’s and Patagonia, want rigorous — and costly — audits, while others prefer limited, inexpensive audits that will not jeopardize relationships with favored suppliers.

Audits can be very brief. A single inspector might visit a 1,000-employee factory for six to eight hours to review all types of manufacturing issues, like wages, child labor or toxic chemicals. Some auditors receive only five days of training, whereas the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration requires three years of training and experience assisting inspectors before employees can lead an inspection of a sizable factory in the United States.

In the Rosita case, after the workers went on their rampage, the Western companies that bought the factory’s knitwear grew alarmed. So Rosita’s owner, South Ocean, a conglomerate based in Hong Kong, commissioned a new inspection.

That inspection, conducted by Verité, which is based in Massachusetts, was a scathing broadside. Verité’s monitors found “ongoing physical abuse” and “verbal and psychological harassment,” with managers compelling workers who arrived late to stand for “many hours without rest.”

Verité’s three-day inspection found errors in calculating wages, chemical containers labeled only in English and unreasonably high production quotas for which workers were disciplined or fired for not meeting. The inspectors noted that workers “often face harsh treatment,” including jeering from managers if they requested sick leave or annual leave. The monitors also found that managers had fired employees for missing work because of a death in the family and that security guards had beaten workers involved in union and protest activities.

Mr. Viederman of Verité said the earlier inspection, performed by a major monitoring firm, SGS, demonstrated the shortcomings of checklist audits. The SGS inspection involved a one-day visit, largely seeking yes-no answers, probably for a modest fee.

He noted that SGS had interviewed employees only inside the factory, where workers were often unlikely to speak candidly, and not outside — for instance, at bus stops or at home, where workers might open up.

Charles Kernaghan, executive director of the Institute for Global Labor and Human Rights, was shocked when he read the SGS inspection report for Rosita. “The auditors were saying everything was in perfect order,” he said. “It shows how ineffective these monitoring organizations can be.”

Effie Marinos, sustainability manager at SGS, defended her company’s findings. She said SGS had followed the inspection protocol developed by the Business Social Compliance Initiative, a factory certification group for European businesses.

Ms. Marinos said the protocol for Rosita did not require interviewing workers outside the factory, a practice that she cautioned could undermine a relationship between a Western company and its suppliers.

“You don’t want to start the whole approach with a lack of trust, that they are trying to fool you, that they are behaving unethically,” she said. “It can sour an entire relationship.”

Bypassing Inspection Rules

The Walmart purchase orders read “Ethical Standards Required.”

In mid-2011, the Quaker Pet Group, whose biggest customer was Walmart, began looking for cheaper factories where its trendy dog clothes could be made, according to a former Quaker employee who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal from Quaker. The company has also sold its goods to Petco, PetSmart and smaller retailers.

Quaker settled on a plant called Jiutai Bag and Gift Factory in Dongguan, Guangdong. After visiting the site, Quaker’s president, Neil Werde, sent a note to a Jiutai representative in June 2011. “I was pleased with your factory,” Mr. Werde wrote, according to an e-mail shared by the former employee. “Good luck on the Walmart inspection.”

That inspection did not occur. Quaker officials became concerned that Jiutai would not be able to pass an inspection, the former employee said.

But there was a workaround. While Jiutai would make the garments, Quaker would fill out order forms to say that the items had been made by Ease Clever Plastic Manufactory, then an approved Walmart supplier. Ease Clever is an established manufacturer that ships products to Target and other large companies, according to the global trade database Panjiva. Jiutai, by contrast, had only one recent listing in the database, for a small shipment to Puerto Rico in 2011.

The stickiest issue was how to get the clothing made by Jiutai past Walmart inspectors. An inspection at Ease Clever was scheduled for September 2011, when the Walmart representatives would check that the dog outfits were being manufactured there, the former employee said.

Jiutai simply took the clothes to Ease Clever, according to the former employee. Those moves were outlined in a later e-mail from a Jiutai representative to Mr. Werde.

“The Walmart inspectors showed up and said, ‘Oh, they are being made here.’ It’s not as challenging as you would think,” the former employee said. “You have your finished-goods area and just show them the cartons being packed out.”

In an e-mail to Mr. Werde, the Jiutai representative, identified as Mr. Hu, detailed how the setup had worked as he pushed Quaker for payment.

In July, Mr. Hu wrote, a company based in Hong Kong called KYCE, apparently acting as a liaison, helped arrange an order for the Christmas dog clothes. “JiuTai only make the clothes,” Mr. Hu wrote.

In September, “we hang the clothes” in display cases and “send to Ease Clever warehouse for Walmart during inspection,” Mr. Hu added, including photographs of the costumes. After the inspection, the clothes went back to Jiutai, and Jiutai, after making final adjustments, packed and delivered the clothes to the shipping terminal, Mr. Hu wrote. Mr. Hu and KYCE representatives did not respond to multiple e-mails seeking comment.

Throughout September, according to Walmart purchase orders, Quaker shipped $2.1 million worth of pet outfits from Yantian, China, to various American ports. The purchase orders list Mrs. Claus dresses, Santa suits and reindeer suits — the exact outfits Mr. Hu of Jiutai said he had made at his factory and then photographed. But the purchase orders list Ease Clever as the supplier, not Jiutai.

Contacted by telephone last month about the inspection and shipment, Jay Xie, a sales manager for Ease Clever, said the company had allowed the use of its Walmart certification. “His factory had not yet been audited — he used my factory because it was already audited,” Mr. Xie said of the Jiutai factory manager. Mr. Xie said this had happened only once, as a friendly act to help a fellow manufacturer.

The shipment, though, was late, according to the former employee and Mr. Hu’s e-mail. And soon after Walmart started selling these items, Quaker began receiving complaints, according to the former employee. When Walmart conducted a quality test on the Mrs. Claus dress, it found holes, and the outfit failed the test. Walmart executives then summoned Quaker employees to its sourcing office in Shanghai for an explanation, but Quaker did not disclose the subcontracting to Walmart at that time, the former employee said.

In March 2013, Walmart received a tip, via its global ethics hot line, about the unauthorized subcontracting and looked into it.

Kevin Gardner, a spokesman for the company, confirmed that subcontracting in this case occurred in 2011, and that Walmart officials “met with the supplier after the investigation to go through the findings and reinforce what our expectations are pursuant to subcontracting.”

Even though Walmart was alerted to the case nearly two years after the products were made and only after a hot line tip, the retailer pointed to the episode as an example of how its investigation and compliance system was working, not faltering.

“We investigated. We talked with the supplier. We think this does show the processes were in place,” Mr. Gardner said.

In January of this year, Walmart established a “zero tolerance” policy, saying it would drop suppliers who used subcontractors without the company’s approval. Walmart adopted the policy after garments headed to the company were found in the fire debris at Tazreen, an unauthorized factory.

Quaker and Mr. Werde declined to comment. The pet specialty company remains a Walmart supplier, Mr. Gardner said.

Cat-and-Mouse Games

The question-and-answer sheet that the factory’s managers distributed to all their employees was explicit: if an inspector ever asked, “Are there injury records?” they were to answer, “Have not heard of any work-related injuries.”

And if an inspector asked, “Any corporal punishment in the factory?” the employees were to reply, “No.” If monitors inquired about underage workers at the plant, employees were coached to respond, “Employment for those less than 16 years old is prohibited.”

This sheet, prepared by managers at a Chinese factory and obtained by The Times, had one purpose: to trick inspectors.

Supply chain experts and monitors say that far too often, factory managers play cat-and-mouse games with inspectors because they are desperate to avoid a failing grade and the loss of a lucrative stream of orders.

The experts provided real-life examples. To avoid appearing illegally overcrowded, one factory moved many machines into trucks parked outside during an inspection, a monitor said. Whenever inspectors showed up at certain plants in China, the loudspeakers began playing a certain song to signal that underage workers should run out the back door, according to several monitors. During inspections in India, some factories displayed elaborate charts detailing health and safety procedures that, like stage props, were transferred from one factory to another, another monitor said.

For monitoring companies with major retailing clients, the auditing regimen can be nonstop. The territory itself is daunting — 5,000 factories produce garments in Bangladesh alone. A retailer that uses 1,000 factories worldwide might want to pay no more than $1,000 an inspection — that could mean a one-day, check-the-box audit — instead of $5,000 for thorough, five-day inspections. That would cost $1 million instead of $5 million.

“You have this intense price pressure downward on these inspection firms, turning them into a commodity business,” said Mr. O’Rourke of the University of California, Berkeley.

Auret van Heerden, president and chief executive of the Fair Labor Association, a nonprofit group that Apple uses to monitor its Foxconn factories in China, said many inspectors were too rushed. “Many are doing a factory a day, and many auditors, more than one factory a day,” he said. “They’re on a plane and going to a new city the next day. They don’t have much time to think about it or dwell on it.”

Despite some improvements, many supply chain experts say monitoring has inherent shortcomings. Not long ago, Nike and other sporting goods companies were shaken by revelations that children, ages 5 to 14, toiled up to 11 hours a day making soccer balls for them in Sialkot, Pakistan.

A study found that half of Pakistan’s soccer ball workers were making less than the minimum wage, with many stitching the balls’ panels together at home, making it hard for factory monitors to unearth such violations.

Nike responded by requiring its main contractor there, Silver Star, to consolidate production in one big factory. Knowing how skilled many contractors have become at gaming the monitoring system, Nike took an unusual step and ordered Silver Star to set up a system of elected worker representatives who would be charged with speaking up about safety problems, wage violations or other issues.

“We’ve learned that monitoring alone isn’t enough,” said Greg Rossiter, Nike’s chief spokesman.

Mr. van Heerden said, “You can never visit facilities often enough to make sure they stay compliant — you’ll never have enough inspectors to do that. What really keeps factories compliant is when workers have a voice and they can speak out when something isn’t right.”

Still, after a string of fatal disasters and repeated failures in uncovering serious violations, many experts doubt that even a highly organized and supervised inspection industry can improve factory conditions in country after country. Heather White, a research fellow at Harvard and a longtime factory auditor, said, “It starts as a dream, then it becomes an organization, and it finally ends up as a racket.”



Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/business/global/superficial-visits-and-trickery-undermine-foreign-factory-inspections.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

一打一跌就買 by 石鏡泉

  投資者在九月要應對的事已不少,有美儲局退市,有資金撤出新興市場,本已一頭煙,到上周三,更搞出個敍利亞化武癲劇。動用化武者,一定是癲人,但美總統奧巴馬的反應更癲,迫到投資市場也更癲,唉!

 

  施放化武者一定是癲人才可為,但出主意去用化武者,就未必一定癲,後果是可以預期的,這個出主意者,為甚麼癲到敢逆天下之大不韙?不知,等聯合國調查報告再說。


 
  至於美總統奧巴馬的反應就癲到離譜,他在聯合國調查人員未開工前,已咬定是敍政府用化武,並謂要打敍利亞,英國又和議,謂要在8月29日打敍利亞,結果是:

 

  (1)英國國會反對出兵敍利亞;

 

  (2)美國有逾140名議員謂美如要打敍利亞,要先得國會同意;

 

  (3)聯合國秘書長潘基文謂聯合國調查團要在兩星期後,即九月中才會有結果公布。

 

  立時間,奧巴馬變成孤家寡人,不得不改口稱未定出攻打細節和日程。唉!奧巴馬不是癲就是傻。

 

  傻,是因為奧巴馬要明白,非執政黨的最大伎倆是,拖住政府不讓其做事,你奧巴馬叫打敍利亞,以為作為軍火商代表的共和黨一定會舉腳贊成,但有時黨性會使人冇人性,共和黨不是謂不打,而是謂你要問過我才好打,反正如真要400支導彈炸敍利亞,這些導彈都是支持共和黨的軍火商的囊中物,遲又有,早又有,咁就拖拖你奧巴馬,等你甩甩鬚嘞!

 

  癲,是因為出兵乃國之大事,到你奧巴馬一個人說了算?假如奧巴馬這樣說就會大方得體兼攞威:「敍利亞如真對其人民用化武,就是違反聯合國協議,只要聯合國調查證實這點,美國作為安理會常任理事國,有義務對違反聯合國協議的國家,作出制裁,至於制裁形式,由外交、經濟以至軍事手段,都要聽從聯合國指示和美國人民和國會的意願。」

 

  這樣一講就不會把自己擺上枱,逼入死角,如果奧巴馬下令炸敍利亞,而聯合國調查報告又證實,敍利亞政府和反對派都有用上化武,又或查完都不知誰用化武時,奧巴馬是否要作出國際道歉?那時國際大國會成為國際霸權,怎辦?

 

市場反應快過美國射導彈

 

  這幾天下來,奧巴馬都知道自己又癲又傻,所以改口風了,要等等才打。之不過,市場因應之前奧巴馬的強調口吻,而立時沽貨作應對。

 

  Bespokeinvest計過環球30個市場的ETF價格,在前星期,30個市場中,有7個是超買的(價高於50天平均線),經過上周奧巴馬的鷹派洗禮,全球已經沒有一個市場是超買,反之有12個市場是超賣。美國市場更跌低於50天平均線,這即是謂,市場反應認真快,快過美國射導彈,所以當美國真正射導彈時,市場或已把壞消息消化掉,會重見1990年美國打伊拉克之役,未打之時市場騰雞跌,一打之時,市場雞犬皆升,因為市場是炒預期的,預期了,消化了便沒事了。

 

  若然市場已基本消化了奧巴馬的導彈論,則市場將會自己走回自己的路,是甚麼樣的路?8月22日筆者有文:「港股A股不會鬼上身」,就是等數據來炒美國的退市,文如下:

 

9月3日 星期二

 

  勞動節假期結束後,美國市場會恢復迎來為期四天的一周。這四天和此後的周一是美聯儲決策者發表公開言論的最後機會,因為接下來就是FOMC會議前的溝通中斷期。

 
  這時的評論可能強調貨幣政策的前景要視數據而定,在會議真正舉行前還沒有決定今後的步驟。

 

  通常,理事們應該會在FOMC會議召開兩周前舉行閉門會議,會上將討論利率政策,從上午一直開到中午。

 

9月4日 星期三

 

  美聯儲褐皮書會在北京時間5日凌晨2點公布,將介紹7月初到8月底的各地方聯儲轄區經濟形勢。

 

  上次褐皮書暗示,少數地區的活動有所增強。如9月報告更加樂觀,就會增加放緩QE3的可能性。

 

9月6日 星期五

 

  8月非農就業報告相對較強或較弱將很大程度上落實對9月FOMC會議決定的預期。

 

  私人用工增長已經6個月左右徘徊在接近20萬人的水平。

 

  可能美聯儲決策者會將這種形勢理解為勞動力市場足以持續好轉。

 

  失業率目前在7.4%,除非8月數據低於近期趨勢水平,否則可能不會讓FOMC放棄減少購買資產規模的打算。

 

9月9日 星期一

 

  FOMC會議前的溝通中斷期從9日晚12點開始生效。周一白天將是美聯儲決策者發表公開言論的最後機會。

 

  如果此後10天要公開講話,他們應該會避免談到貨幣政策。

 

  如果沒有了奧巴馬的導彈論,則到港時間9月10日下周二,便應已知美儲局對退市決策的七七八八,餘下的是等9月17日周二公布的CPI,以及9月17日至18日的FOMC會議(詳見8月22日文)。

 

美國導彈早射早著

 

  法總統奧朗德謂美國會於9月4日或之前攻敘,如果這個遲遲未成事,真要等兩星期後(即美儲局FOMC會期間)的聯合國調查報告出爐後才行事時,大家估美聯儲局夠不夠膽在9月18日時宣布退市?筆者估就不會了。

 

  如此一來就是:

 

  (1)美國導彈,早射早著,9月4日前射,看反應,美儲局才能於9月18日決定是否退市;

 

  (2)美國導彈愈遲射,遲到9月20日也不射時,美儲局九成不會在九月退市。

 

  筆者今時持貨不多,早已預備八月中後待內銀宣布完業績後便入市,如今多了個敍利亞因素(退市因素早已知悉),策略不能不改一改,

 

  改為:

 

  「唔打,唔跌,唔買;一打,一跌,就買。」

 

  買甚麼股?內銀與中移動(0941),為首選,因為導彈與銀彈(退市)都應對這些股無大殺傷力啩。

 

*編者按:本文只供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《經濟通通訊社》、《晴報》、編者及作者無涉。

 

轉載自晴報



Source: http://lifestyle.etnet.com.hk/column/index.php/wealth/arthurshek/19706

風險意識現震盪 非農就業決勝負 by 陶冬

  全球金融市場,上周被敘利亞危機和新興市場走資所主導,風險意識指標VIX創下今年六月以來新高,波動頗高。

 

  美英法三國揚言要懲罰使用化學武器對付本國平民的敘利亞,油價飆升,股市下挫,金價上揚。隨著英國國會否決卡梅倫內閣的襲擊提案和美國的空襲時間一再推延,市場情緒略有改善。但是總體來言,資金處在去風險的狀態,流動性暫離股市,轉向美債和德債,兩大債市走強,美元走強。美國經濟數據不理想,部分市場參與者調低聯儲九月份啟動減少購債計劃被推出的概率。黃金走出近三個月來的最強音,一度攻破1430大關,但是未能企穩,全周下來金價被打回原形。

 

  敘利亞危機升級,當屬上周最大的故事,也是目前市場最大的不確定因素。敘利亞在產油生產鏈上只是一個小角色。內戰前每天產油37萬噸,現時僅有7萬噸,幾乎是一個可有可無的數字。中東多數產油大國,均或明或暗地自持美國,因此一旦動武產油國集體減產抗議而大幅推高油價的機會不大。伊朗是一個搖擺因素。從宗教和地緣政治角度看,伊朗反對美國動武。不過筆者看不到伊朗為敘利亞而出兵或禁止石油出口的可能。筆者相信,無論美國的動不動手,油價均難在此之上長期地進一步地攀升,除非出現白天鵝事件。

 

  非農就業數據總是市場的焦點,本周的更是如此。這是聯儲九月例會前最後一個重要經濟數據,是美國貨幣當局評估目前經濟形勢的極其關鍵的經濟參數,直接決定聯儲在tapering的時機與力度。筆者估計八月就業增加190K,失業率回落到7.3%,為聯儲QE減碼敞開大門。如果這些預期被證實,預期聯儲在9月18日宣布每月減少購債200億美元(國債和MBS各減少100億)。這個減少資產購買數量偏小,務求經濟不受大的衝擊,同時tapering又可以在伯南克任內正式啟動。

 

  新興市場上周再走資60億美元,比前一周多出近一倍。新興市場在八月所遭遇的拋售,數量之巨是史無前例的,各國政府的對策顯得蒼白無力,匯率震盪不已。以新興市場所持有的外匯儲備(儘管下降了一些)看,目前的危機是信心危機,而非國際收支危機。但是如果對資金外流的政策處置失當,則早晚會演變到國際收支危機。

 

  本周市場焦點:美國非農就業數據和利比亞危機的演化。周末在聖彼得堡舉行的G20峰會也可能因敘利亞而擦出火花。在美國,ISM會從上月的超強勁水平回落,但是53.5預測也是不錯的。汽車銷售和非製造業ISM料想都有不俗的表現。聯儲發布經濟褐皮書。在歐洲,歐元區PMI(尤其是意大利和西班牙的數據)最值得關注。第二季度GDP增長會作修正,但變化可能不大。英國PMI預計趨緩。歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行例會,料政策和言辭無明顯改變。亞太區,日本財政部的企業投資調查,估計顯示資本投資繼續低迷。澳大利亞公布第二季度GDP數據。日本銀行和澳大利亞銀行的貨幣政策也相信沒有改變。

 

  (本欄主要內容每周一9:30am會在央視2台交易時間中出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法,並非任何投資勸誘或建議)



Source: http://lifestyle.etnet.com.hk/column/index.php/wealth/taodong/19708

促進公司新陳代謝 by 王維基

  上星期五,我們公司執行人才優化計劃,在客觀評審標準的前提下,每年要求當中表現未如理想的5%同事離職。目的是為了換血,優化人才,注入新血,以繼續提升公司的質素;絕對不是為了裁減人手,或是公司的財政出現問題。雖然不能確保換入的新血必定能夠為公司帶來正面的影響,但起碼能促進公司的新陳代謝。

 

  同事們或會比較難接受這種人事的更替,奇怪地,員工「炒公司魷魚」就天經地義,但公司根據員工表現而「炒人」,卻是十惡不赦。

 

  每次公司在行政上的改變,特別是打破舊行規時,同事們都會非常費解。我走進這個行業,就是要打破這些不合理規矩。例如藝員每月只得半個show,數量實在少得可憐;更不合理的是,即使藝員有份參與拍攝而被剪走了片段,就不計算在show的數量內。我們的做法是,藝員的收入以月薪計算,即使未有劇集開拍,亦能有底薪去支持生活。我們不斷改變,就是希望行業能按照新的準則,持續發展下去。

 

轉載自晴報


 



Source: http://lifestyle.etnet.com.hk/column/index.php/internationalaffairs/rickywong/19705

知識分子不應怠忽責任 by 雷鼎鳴

  葉建民教授上周五在《明報》發表大作《誰在真正搞亂香港》,對「幫港出聲」諸君及我作了一些無的放矢的批評。葉老弟素來支持理性分析,但這次卻不知何故,頗顯得心煩氣躁,似是失準之作。這類文章本不用回應,但我敬重葉老弟為人,惟有對他兩個觀點表達一點自己的看法。

 

  葉老弟的主要指控是問我們為甚麼對「『愛』字頭和各式支持建制團體路人皆見的劣行」置若罔聞,反而去批判「佔中」的倡議者?我的長期讀者都知道,我討厭語言暴力,若有真正暴力出現,亦十分支持警方依法辦事,把犯事者緝拿歸案。我一向最擔心的,亦是香港社會出現撕裂,但這意味著我一定要先罵「愛」字頭才批評「佔中」諸君嗎?我未搞清楚情況前,不會隨便罵人。

 

處事要分優次輕重

 

  「愛」字頭各路人等我並不認識,對一些混在當中,葉建民口中說的「敗類」更不知其來歷;傳媒對他們的報道,亦各自從其立場出發,若不長期花上時間觀察,怎可輕忽判斷?在影響力規模而言,「佔中」所可能造成的損失數以十億計,動員人數亦可能過萬,豈是「愛」字頭等區區數十人的影響所能比擬?處事的優先次序,豈不一目了然?我們豈能輕重不分?

 

  話說回來,用錯誤方法表達自己的訴求,我絕不認同,但葉老弟也清楚知道,率眾「踩場」,狙擊政治對手,「維園阿哥」式歪風絕非「愛」字頭所創。香港過去幾年政治生態飽受此劣行所困,我卻未見泛民黨派大張旗鼓去聲討他們。「剃人頭者,人亦剃之」,別人「有樣學樣」,泛民豈不悔不當初?不過,歷史也告訴我們,選舉中,中間泛民政黨最痛恨的敵人其實是激進泛民,今天較中間的所謂建制派,也應對激進建制派保持戒心。至於我,既非泛民也非建制,人微言輕,激進泛民或建制,哪有興趣聽我勸喻?

 

  葉建民提出的第二個重點是「街頭政治運動的興起反映有人認為在建制內爭取公義成效不彰,所以要轉戰街頭。」他又認為「政策的所謂好壞,不應只是在於是否合乎科學原則、經濟效益又或既定程序,受眾的喜惡才是關鍵」,因此政府委任在諮詢架構中的「精英」,不要再活在雲端云云。

 

  我相信葉建民的分析犯了一些硬傷。這裏有兩個問題:民意如何掌握,以及知識分子在公共決策中應扮演甚麼角色。

 

  已故美國政治科學會會長黎卡(William Riker)曾把民主分為民粹主義民主及自由主義民主兩類。前者假設了民意可知,並以此為政策基礎;後者則謙虛得多,認為民主大有局限,對它不用有太大奢望,只要把握它,使人民有權任免政治領袖便可。黎卡利用數理經濟學中早已證明的一些定理,指出民意根本不可知,任何以為自己知道民意若何的想法都只是幻想,所以民粹主義式的民主根本站不住腳。此中涉及的理論複雜,將來再詳論,但在此處我可較簡單地指出,街頭中出現的訴求,絕不可便把它當成社會的民意。

 

  社會中追尋利益的所謂「尋租活動」,人人誇大自己的損失,無限化自己的訴求,在香港我們還見得少嗎?這些活動其實很合乎不同團體私自的利益,我們不可怪當事人,但卻必須審視他們背後的動機。這些訴求當中,很多是有衝突的,例如不少港人希望樓價下降,所以認同發展新界東北,但同時亦有人在那裏耕種,要得到巨額補償才肯離開。此類問題涉及不同利益的人、人數多寡及利益的深度,街頭政治怎可能帶來準確資訊以助民主政府找出真正的民意所在?我們必須明白,社會中人各有不同訴求,所謂社會的「共有意志」只是一不存在的虛妄。

 

街頭訴求不可當民意

 

  至於知識分子的角色,我們也要搞清楚,知所進退。掌握某些團體訴求並作其代言人,邏輯上是做得到的,但若說可知道總體民意,卻不可能。把自己的意念當作全民訴求,並充當救世主,是十分虛妄的行為。知識分子應發揮自己的專長,才能起到最大貢獻。他們的專長是甚麼?便是以科學方法,分析不同政策會帶來的後果,然後再讓公眾知道,決策則留給公眾。我與政府一直保持距離,極少提出政策建議,我所做的,只是以專業知識批判地審視別人提出的政策有無不妥。這是很艱苦的工作,而且沒有薪水,沒有回報,我的朋友很少會對這類義工有強烈興趣,但這是知識分子的責任,不應怠忽。

 

轉載自晴報



Source: http://lifestyle.etnet.com.hk/column/index.php/internationalaffairs/francislui/19704

七 天 天 氣 預 報@香 港 天 文 台 於 2013 年 09 月 02 日 05 時 45 分 發 出 之 天 氣 報 告 by HKO

七 天 天 氣 預 報

天 氣 概 況 :
現 時 影 響 華 南 沿 岸 及 其 鄰 近 海 域 的 一 道 低 壓 槽 會 在 
今 明 兩 天 逐 漸 減 弱 。 熱 帶 氣 旋 桃 芝 將 會 於 未 來 一 兩 
天 大 致 移 向 日 本 西 南 部 海 域 。 一 股 偏 南 氣 流 會 在 本 
週 中 期 為 廣 東 帶 來 驟 雨 。 隨 著 華 南 上 空 的 反 氣 旋 在 
本 週 後 期 逐 漸 建 立 , 該 區 天 氣 將 會 轉 晴 。 

九 月 二 日 ( 星 期 一 )
風   : 南 風 2 至 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 驟 雨 。 日 間 部 分 時 間 有 陽 光 。 
氣 溫 : 26 至 31 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

九 月 三 日 ( 星 期 二 )
風   : 微 風 2 級 。 
天 氣 : 短 暫 時 間 有 陽 光 , 有 幾 陣 驟 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 27 至 31 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

九 月 四 日 ( 星 期 三 )
風   : 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 驟 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 26 至 30 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

九 月 五 日 ( 星 期 四 )
風   : 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 多 雲 , 有 幾 陣 驟 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 26 至 30 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 75 至 95 。

九 月 六 日 ( 星 期 五 )
風   : 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 部 分 時 間 有 陽 光 , 有 一 兩 陣 驟 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 27 至 31 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 70 至 90 。

九 月 七 日 ( 星 期 六 )
風   : 東 至 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 天 晴 , 但 有 一 兩 陣 驟 雨 。 
氣 溫 : 27 至 32 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 70 至 90 。

九 月 八 日 ( 星 期 日 )
風   : 東 至 東 南 風 3 級 。 
天 氣 : 大 致 天 晴 。 
氣 溫 : 27 至 32 度 。
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 65 至 85 。

9 月 1 日 下 午 二 時 北 角  錄 得 之 海 水 溫 度 為 27 度 。
9 月 1 日 上 午 七 時 天 文 台  錄 得 之 土 壤 溫 度 為 :
0.5 米 29.0 度 ;
1.0 米 29.4 度 。

七 天 天 氣 預 報 插 圖
第 一 天 插 圖 編 號 53 - 間 有 陽 光 , 幾 陣 驟 雨 
第 二 天 插 圖 編 號 54 - 短 暫 陽 光 , 有 驟 雨 
第 三 天 插 圖 編 號 62 - 微 雨 
第 四 天 插 圖 編 號 62 - 微 雨 
第 五 天 插 圖 編 號 53 - 間 有 陽 光 , 幾 陣 驟 雨 
第 六 天 插 圖 編 號 51 - 間 有 陽 光 
第 七 天 插 圖 編 號 51 - 間 有 陽 光 

天氣報告@香 港 天 文 台 於 2013 年 09 月 02 日 7 時 02 分 發 出 之 天 氣 報 告 by HKO

上 午 7 時 天 文 台 錄 得:
氣 溫 : 26 度
相 對 濕 度 : 百 分 之 88 
天 氣 插 圖: 編 號 53 - 間 有 陽 光 , 幾 陣 驟 雨 

  
本 港 其 他 地 區 的 氣 溫 :

京 士 柏              26 度 ,
黃 竹 坑              25 度 ,
大 埔                 25 度 ,
沙 田                 25 度 ,
屯 門                 25 度 ,
將 軍 澳              25 度 ,
西 貢                 26 度 ,
長 洲                 25 度 ,
赤 鱲 角              27 度 ,
青 衣                 25 度 ,
石 崗                 25 度 ,
荃 灣 可 觀           24 度 ,
荃 灣 城 門 谷        25 度 ,
香 港 公 園           25 度 ,
筲 箕 灣              26 度 ,
九 龍 城              26 度 ,
跑 馬 地              26 度 ,
黃 大 仙              26 度 ,
赤 柱                 26 度 ,
觀 塘                 27 度 ,
深 水 埗              26 度 。


油拔、布緯、經期 by 嚴浩

根據讀者來信反饋,油拔法與布緯食療對改善經期很有效,以下又是一個案例。


Rita:(2013年8月5日)「女兒十三歲來經到現在都處於不正常的狀態,三個月、二個月不等,有時更長,以前曾經每個月正常來經,不過現在不成了。看過中、西醫生,其中一位中醫說是多卵囊症,但西醫說不是,照超聲波看過,很多卵子是正常。本人一向不喜歡用藥物替她治療,知道會有很大副作用。女兒上一次來經是2個多月前,她今年19歲,前幾年面上及背部很多暗瘡,這一兩年少了很多瘡瘡,但經期還是很不正常。」


答:「這方面,我已經講過很多次,建議參考《嚴選偏方》第2集,《嚴浩特選秘方集4》也有。讀過後我們再討論,好嗎?」


Rita(2013年8月28日):「已經吩咐女兒照書做。起初先做油拔法,第四天後小腹開始痛,我對她說要忍耐,由於她也看到書中的分享,於是有信心繼續油拔,再加布緯療法(香港心腦保健會的冷榨亞麻籽油瓶子上標明特別適合布緯食療),但肚子依然不時作痛。上星期開始有一點啡色分泌,額上出了幾粒大暗瘡,昨晚她對我說,媽咪,我真的週期又來啦!大家都很開心,她上次來月經是五月考試的時候。」


很感謝Rita的來信,希望接到更多讀者來信分享經驗,讓更多的人得到健康。


油拔法加布緯食療,對很多病的康復都見效很快,但這絕對不是治療方法的全部。(未完)

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18404683&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20130902

吳鎮宇的眼神 by 李碧華

身邊朋友都有看《衝上雲霄II》,時間趕不及的還會上網,追看型男演技。


劇集已近尾聲,主線兩男一女因有劇透,所以無驚喜。Captain Cool、Captain Tong、何年希演出漸入佳境,另一組合馬明和黑絲儀(有趣,江美儀的御用「武器」是黑絲襪!)激戰連場──還是吳鎮宇征服力強。


吳的飛機頭、低沈聲線、身體語言,固然加分,不過他最煞食是「眼神」。中年心事濃如酒(少女情懷不是詩,年希奔放得很),Sam哥一直古肅、自信、深情、內斂,作為專業機師,他有他的範兒,且心有情結,不能解脫。


出現第二春,希望不是過客,Cool爆的眼神竟不知不覺變得溫柔,而且又不由自主地容易笑,以前完全不笑,所以輕笑已經「有層次」。間中世故夾雜忐忑,飲杯牛奶也漏幾滴……眼神有戲視線也有戲:故意移開,若無其事──「若無」,就是「有」,這難喻的猶豫、曖昧,為情場中最動人的一刻。幸好我也當了觀眾,沒錯過他演技。

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18404677&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20130902

軟弱的奧巴馬 by 陶傑

美國要不要攻敘利亞?奧巴馬弱勢盡現。他的廢話太多:「正在考慮是否採取有限軍事行動」、「不會推翻政權」,「不派陸軍」,還沒有動手,底牌先掀開。美國的敵人,對於這個馬英九型的婆娘腔總統,有幾多斤兩,心中有了數。


五年前,我在這個欄一口咬定:奧巴馬不能勝任美國總統,這個人不行的。現在全世界都看到了。


一個諾貝爾和平獎,成為奧巴馬的包袱。太好笑了。中東惡勢力囂張,得寸進尺,就是奧巴馬這種「自由派」助長成的。在一個亂世,美國要一個鐵血型的強人總統,捍衛現代文明的價值觀。即使沒有列根,至少該有個杜魯門。即使沒有,至少是小布殊和錢尼這種班底。打仗重閃電行動,攻其不備,靠奧小黑這樣的口水佬,美國會完蛋。


美國如果不做世界警察,難道只做富人的樂園和中國貪官下一代的綠卡避難所?奧巴馬擔當不起如此時代重任。英國人看出來了,奧巴馬剛上台,以肯雅的反殖情緒,置於國家利益之上,怠慢來訪的英國首相白高敦,「英美特殊關係」受損。現在要英國幫忙?英國首相指揮不了議會,說:No。


美國總統頭巾迂腐,猶豫軟弱,唯一的贏家是誰?


不是敘利亞的阿撒德,這種暴君,是難逃本國暴民誅殺。也不是伊朗,伊朗無挑戰西方的份量。當然也不是中國的習李班子,因為中國雖大,政府疲軟,沒有強人。


得益的人,只會是俄國的普京。俄國有豐富的自然資源實力,一個解體了的前共黨政權,獨裁習性未脫,加上帝俄的基因,如果二十一世紀有第二個希特拉,這個人只會在俄國。


英國不玩了,暗自鬆口氣,不是說帝國主義不道德嗎?那麼就讓這等第三世界殘殺本國的婦孺、自己減少繁殖得太快的人口好了。西方左派知識份子的什麼「論述」,至此破產。


法國卻搶當爛頭卒,比較奇怪。社會黨也是左派,當初薩科齊出兵阿富汗,左派也大罵,現在當權,輪到他自打嘴巴了。西方左派的淺薄和虛偽,從奧巴馬到奧蘭德,這次都露了底。不知以後華文世界的文化人,如何趕時髦跟隨?


在一個平庸的人當權的世界,只有敘利亞這等國家的的平民和兒童付出無盡的生命代價,還有中國的小斌斌之類:「怎麼天還是黑的呀?」三流的人爭着「從政」,吹水、喊口號、做騷,天怎麼會不黑呢?

Source: http://hkm.appledaily.com/detail.php?guid=18404674&category_guid=vice&sup_id=12187389&category=daily&issue=20130902

鏈家借高成本運作 提高門檻排斥競爭 by 施永青

【am730專欄】北京鏈家(圖)的出現,無疑打亂了中原地產在內地原先相對順暢的發展;但我的取態基本上是歡迎鏈家的出現,因為我相信有競爭才會有進步;愈強的競爭對手愈能夠推動中原進步。

然而,我發覺鏈家的經營策略卻是借資本力量去排斥對手。他在市弱的時候,逆勢擴展規模,博行家不敢跟進與他打消耗戰,藉此建立壓倒性的規模效應,以後對手就不易翻身。

行家在一個小區開了一間店,他可以開五間圍住對手。一般消費者不會經常買樓,不知道哪間好哪間不好,很容易以為分行多、分行大,裝修好、人員眾的就是好公司,令規模小的公司不容易爭取到客人。

有人可能會說,中原在香港不是也採取類似的策略嗎?兩者最大的差異是中原是在盈利的基礎上才在一個小區開第二間、第三間。我們是先證實客戶對我們的服務有需求,才為客戶提供更多的服務;我們的規模增加可謂是客戶的選擇。但鏈家卻是在嚴重虧損的情況下依然不斷開分行。鏈家在上海、南京、杭州、大連、青島、成都,至今仍在這樣做。他們的舖均與人均業績都不如競爭對手,顯示消費者對他們的服務並沒有特別偏好,但他們仍不斷以高租金在龍頭位置開旗艦店,每店聘用比行家多數以倍計的員工,進行人海戰術。

他們的員工大部分都是沒有經驗的新人,知識與能力都有限,所以命中率很低,唯其人多,只要其中一部分有業績,他們的總業績就有機會勝過對手,並藉此為品牌建立地位。一般人只知道鏈家大、鏈家強,卻對鏈家的個別員工沒有甚麼印象。這正是鏈家老闆最想看到的現象,因為去人化之後,公司的品牌就更有價值。

鏈家的員工對公司的依賴很大,他們只曉得按照公司設計的流程提供標準化服務,應變能力不高,遇到有特別需要的客戶,也只能招呼他吃套餐。

鏈家自己也承認,他並非依靠個別員工的超卓能力,他依仗的是廳大的分行網絡,先進的電腦系統,嚴控的流程管理,以及壓倒性的網絡宣傳優勢。這些都是一般的小行家負擔不起的。

鏈家所到的城市,行業的經營成本都被推高。其他行家如果不跟著他那樣做,在競爭上就會吃虧,但跟著一起作高投入,就不可能收支平衡。鏈家背後有很多風險投資基金願意支持,有條件打消耗戰,但小公司卻沒有這個能力。鏈家就是用「以本傷人」的方式,企圖達到壟斷市場的目的。一旦他奪取到市場的領導地位,鏈家就可以向客戶增收佣金。北京鏈家在買賣交易中會收2.7%佣金,比其他行家都收得多,其他城市的樓價大部分都低過北京,鏈家的運作成本這樣高,一朝得勢,一定要徵收比北京更高的佣金比例,才得以生存;消費者要有心理準備。



Source: http://www.am730.com.hk/article.php?article=170572

流失精英 玩完 | 晴報Sky Post‧日日好心情 by 劉天賜

王維基感嘆,近年的選美,獲選佳麗和幕前藝人的質素都比不上七、八十年代!
真的嗎?是否這個圈子已不再有光環,或者光環已盡失,沒有吸引力使到年輕貌美的年輕人參加?如此下去,這便是「夕陽行業」!進步非常困難。
如果我們相信這是人才的行業,前途便不會太悲觀。電視傳播媒介始終是現代極有吸引力的行業,因為有潛在權力,是之謂「第四權力」的監察權。只要政府承認三權分立,則第四權力—社會監察權自然而有。運用此權力,當然吸引年輕人入行。
傳媒更有社會影響力,可教育社會大眾。難得者,在於有正氣,有正義感的人投身行業,而又可享受言論自由,他們則大有作為,何愁沒有人才?如果社會人士對言論、表達、新聞等有戒心和顧慮,恐怕被「河蟹」了,或受到無形壓力所掣肘,則這個社會便有大問題:流失精英人才,也流失安定繁榮的核心價值,這便玩完了。

Source: http://www.skypost.hk/column/劉天賜/007010001002/%E6%B5%81%E5%A4%B1%E7%B2%BE%E8%8B%B1%20%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%8C/108396