“Restless empire” China and the World Since 1750” by Odd Arne Westad - The Washington Post by John Pomfret

2012-11-30

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/restless-empire-china-and-the-world-since-1750-by-odd-arne-westad/2012/11/30/a0310a1a-21d7-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_print.html

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Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-29

hope you don't mind if I write again about my favourite punching bag－－the MTR. It deserves to be punched over and over again for the dreadful (terrible, awful, lousy) service it provides. On a recent Saturday, at around 1:30 pm, I again lost my cool (got very angry) while travelling to Central from the Kowloon Tong MTR station. The platform was so full of people that I couldn’t even move. Most of them were passengers who had arrived from Lowu on the East Rail. What made the situation worse was that the Central-bound (going to Central) trains arriving at Kowloon Tong were already full.

        T his made it impossible for us to board (get on). I had to wait for three trains before I could force my way into the overcrowded train. There were so many passengers I couldn't even move while aboard (inside the train). It was also stifling (hard to breathe) aboard the overcrowded train. Another passenger also lost his cool. He looked at me, shook his head, and said: “And the MTR still wants to raise fares!” He then took a picture of the overcrowded train with his mobile phone.

        I hope he sends that picture to the overpaid boss of the MTR, Jay Walder. And I hope he makes both Jay Walder and the MTR his punching bags. A punching bag is a big stuffed bag that boxers punch when they train. The verb “train” used this way means to practise for something, such as boxing or swimming. A punching bag also means someone or something that you release your anger on or criticize all the time. For example, Development Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po became a punching bag for the media when it was revealed that he and his wife owned subdivided flats. Jay Walder earns over $10 million a year, including bonuses. But the MTR service is going downhill (getting worse). We should take away his car and driver. He should be forced to use the MTR, especially during rush hour, so he can suffer like the rest of us.

        * * *

        我希望大家別介懷我又提及港鐵了──它可是我最愛的出氣袋（punching bag）呢。它那糟透（dreadful）的服務，實在值得一次又一次地被抨擊。最近某個星期六，大約下午一時半，當我在九龍塘港鐵站準備乘車去中環時，又再一次怒不可遏（lost my cool）。整個月台人滿為患，教我動彈不得。大部份人都是乘東鐵線從羅湖過來的。更差勁的是，那些往中環（Central-bound）的列車抵達九龍塘時，早已擠得水洩不通。

        這令我們根本無法上車（board）。我等了三班車，方能勉強擠進那擁擠的車廂。即使在車上（aboard），我仍然被擠得無法動彈，在這個擠逼的車廂內（aboard）更是透不過氣來（stifling）。另一個乘客也勃然大怒（lost his cool），他看着我，搖搖頭說道：「港鐵還要求加價！」然後他用手機拍下了這個過度擁擠的情景。

        我倒希望他能夠將那張相片，傳給港鐵那支薪過高的老闆韋達誠。我也希望他能拿韋達誠和港鐵做他的出氣袋（punching bag），Punching bag就是那些拳手用來訓練（train）的沙包。Train在這裏當動詞用，就是為拳擊或游泳這類活動作練習。Punching bag同樣解作發洩怒氣或常常批評的人或事。例如，發展局局長陳茂波自從被揭發與太太合營劏房後，就被傳媒拿來當沙包（punching bag）。韋達誠的年薪包括花紅在內，高達一千萬，但港鐵的服務卻日走下坡（downhill）。我們該拿走他的座駕和司機，迫他乘港鐵，特別在繁忙時間，好讓他能跟我們一樣苦不堪言。mickchug@gmail.com

        Michael Chugani褚簡寧

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

「奶媽」的「梁粉」 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

29 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　梁振英政府自上台後，四處碰壁，政策難以開展。對於其家宅的僭建問題，雖然他已作「交代」，但傳媒仍緊咬不放，其誠信備受市民猜疑。在董建華時代，董的能力雖有所不逮，其團隊仍具優良的香港公務員傳統，基本上是「弱幹強枝」的形象。如今的梁振英政府，領導是弱勢，治港班子也是弱勢，「弱幹弱枝」，難怪舉步為艱。

 

　　對於梁振英的班子，總主管是政務司司長林鄭月娥。前政務司司長陳方安生也曾讚揚林太有能力、有擔當，可惜她不能事事上身，因為一個人不能擔當多個角色，擔心她難以支撐下去。最近陳太又在電台節目上指出，林太不應經常為官員解畫，應該由局長自行向公眾解釋，謂「我們納稅人每月給局長三十多萬元，不是要他們像小學生站在政務司司長後面，如果他們不合適，就應該開除，物色更適當的人選。」

 

　　近日政界及傳媒已給林太一個綽號，叫做「奶媽」。奶媽又稱乳母、乳娘、奶娘、奶母、奶口等，是僱用來以母乳喂哺嬰兒的婦女。在古代，因奶粉尚未發明或未曾普及，嬰兒的生母如不能或不願意哺育子女，便僱用奶媽。理論上，僱用奶媽也有規定，因婦女只有在生育之後才會產乳汁，而中國古代婦女多早婚，所以奶媽年齡要在十五歲以上、二十歲以下。不過林太今年已五十四歲，稱她為「奶媽」，似乎不太適合。

 

　　林鄭月娥做不成「奶媽」，但可以做「保母」。奶媽喂哺的是嬰兒，而保母照顧的是兒童。不過林太手下一眾局長，會走會跳，不用手抱，當然不是嬰兒，而且畢竟有一定的社會經驗，不應稱他們為兒童。他們應該是甚麼﹖近日政界和傳媒又有一個稱呼，叫他們是「梁粉」。

 

　　然則甚麼是「梁粉」﹖「梁」指梁振英，「粉」指粉絲，一拍即合而成「梁粉」，又是神來之筆。甚麼是「粉絲」﹖這是來自英文fans的音譯，原本的意思是狂熱的愛好者，如今被力捧人物的追隨者，都叫「粉絲」。梁振英自然是「梁粉」力捧出來的，而詩人余光中，曾對「粉絲」這個音譯，相當贊同，因為那個「絲」字代表了眾數。通常是一群人，但不會是太多人。

 

　　「梁粉」可不是「涼粉」，涼粉在港澳粵等地，是黑色的凝膠狀食品，外觀類似龜苓膏，又叫燒仙草。如今「梁粉」令人想起「涼粉」，因「梁」「涼」同音。又因涼粉的主要原料是淀粉，吃得太多不易消化，而梁振英的班子，似乎也是「梁粉」太多，已見積滯，會否加些芒果，或蘆薈，或椰汁，會更有益和有健康﹖

 

　　從梁振英目前的民意來看，香港的「梁粉」不會太多，但他僱用的班子，則肯定是「梁粉」泛濫。總主管是奶媽，手下是梁粉，兩者似是風馬牛不相及。奶媽即使哺出奶汁，梁粉卻不需要，兩者互不咬弦，格格不入，這也許是管治毛病的癥結。梁粉不需要奶汁，卻需要椰汁，椰汁來自椰子，椰子有的是硬殼，代表脊樑。特區政府的「梁粉班子」，只要加添些椰汁，有幾個有脊樑的官員擔當重任，其管治自能脫胎換骨了。

 

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-27

Two weeks ago I took an East Rail train on Friday from Hung Hom to Lowu. I was startled （astonished, shocked, alarmed） to see nearly ten parallel goods traders at the front end of the platform. When the train doors opened they rushed into the front carriage to get seats. Once inside they cut open their cardboard boxes with box-cutters （sharp tools to cut cardboard boxes） and removed all the goods. They then put the goods into large bags, which they placed on trolleys （metal frames with wheels to move heavy goods）.

        I quickly realized why they were doing this. New MTR rules to deter （discourage, prevent） parallel goods traders make clear that boxes can only be of a certain size and weight. To follow these rules the traders put their parallel goods in many small cardboard boxes. But once on the train they put all the goods into large empty bags so it's easier to handle. The traders have found a way to beat the system. If you have found a way to beat the system it means you have found a way to avoid the rules or regulations.

        More parallel goods traders boarded the train as it headed towards Lowu. They too transferred their goods from boxes to large bags. The government had tried to control the traders at Sheung Shui. But the traders are beating the system by boarding at Hung Hom and other　stations. The reason traders prefer the front carriage of the train is because it is nearest to the immigration checkpoint. Once we arrived at Lowu they all ran out to be first to cross the border. I saw many more traders at the checkpoint area. When I crossed the border into Shenzhen I saw even more traders delivering their parallel goods. The government says it has solved the problem of parallel goods traders. But that is a myth. The word myth has several meanings but used this way it means something that is believed by people but not true. The problem of parallel goods traders is not as bad as before but it has not been solved.

        ＊　　　　　　　＊　　　　　　　＊

        上兩個星期五，我乘東鐵線由紅磡前往羅湖。我驚嚇地（startled）發現在月台盡處近車頭位置，大約有十個水貨客。列車車門一開，他們立即衝進第一卡車霸座位。他們一進去，便用開箱𠝹刀（box-cutters）𠝹開他們的紙皮箱，取出內裏所有的貨物，再將貨物放進大袋中，置放在手推車（trolleys）上。

        我迅即明白為何他們要這樣做。新港鐵條例定明了紙箱的體積和重量，以收阻嚇（deter）水貨客之效。水貨客為了能符合條例，便把水貨放在細小的紙箱中。但一上車，他們又將所有貨物放進大袋中，方便處理。水貨客找到可以擊敗制度（beat the system）的方法了。你找到門路beat the system，即是說你已經找到鑽到規則空子的方法。

        列車愈近羅湖，便愈多水貨客上車。他們同樣把貨物轉移至大袋中。政府嘗試在上水限制水貨客，他們卻在紅磡或其他車站上車，輕易地打敗了制度（beating the system）。他們選擇上列車的第一卡車，因為那邊比較接近入境的關口。當我們一抵達羅湖，他們便爭先恐後的衝往過關。我在邊境管制站見到許多水貨客，在往深圳的邊境，我見到更多的水貨客在傳送着貨物。政府說他們已經解決了水貨客的問題。但那只是一個迷思（myth）。Myth這個字有好些意思，用在這裏是指不少人信以為真，卻沒有事實根據的事。水貨客的問題沒有比以往差，卻也未得到圓滿解決。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

凡事向好處看 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

23 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　在艱難的日子中，我們總要抱著積極正面的態度，凡事向好的方向去想，件事已算成功。

 

　　近日，無論我去到哪�，無論是關心我的朋友還是好事之徒，都會上前慰問，表示支持：「你點呀？呢個政府拖你咁耐，真係好難頂！」坦白說，這段日子真的很難頂。也有朋友關心公司的財政狀況：「嘩，你公司日日燒錢，可以燒幾耐呀？」

 

　　通常我都會耐心解釋：我們不是「燒錢」，而是為電視台做準備工作。開台並不簡單，比做電訊複雜得多，我們要做好三、四百小時的本地製作和過千小時的外購節目，方算有足夠儲備，才可以正式開台。經過連番解釋，對方似明非明，可能是因為別人不會像我這樣多花心機，去想這個行業的未來發展，大家只會順口地問一問。

 

　　但對我來說，這些問題就會構成無形壓力。我要考慮多方感受，例如內部的員工士氣，會不會受到打擊呢？幸運地，大部分同事都是抱著改變電視行業的理想而冒險加入我們這家新公司，所以心內依然有團火。

 

　　凡事向好的方向去想。就算面對亞洲電視無日無之的攻擊，正面地想，若果不是他們的攻擊，就不會吸引傳媒報道。所以，我相信這個世界還有公義，只要我們凡事向好的方面去想，壞事也可以變好事。

 

　　試想一下，若非政府採取拖字訣，不會引起立法會議員、網民和大眾的注意，也不會引起傳媒關注。若果我們只是沉默地取得牌照開台，我們可能要花數千萬廣告費去推廣我們的電視台及節目；但現在我們若獲發牌，市民大眾已經對我們有所認識及期望，我們只需要順利開台播放已經準備好的節目，就可以省卻這筆巨額廣告費。

 

轉載自晴報

 

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-22

I do not know Food and Health Secretary Ko Wing-man but I hope he is reading this. I want him to know that lately（recently）I have been having many sleepless nights（not able to sleep）. Dr Ko's picture was in many newspapers recently when he visited bar areas to see the dangers and noise upstairs bars cause to residents. I hope he was not just putting on a show. If Dr Ko really cares about residents he should go to Wyndham Street near the LKF Hotel late at night during a weekend. I live near there and I am sure he will be shocked by what he sees. All the bars have loudspeakers that produce ear-splitting（extremely loud）music.

        T he road and the pavement are blocked by so many people shouting and drinking alcohol that neither residents nor traffic can get past. One bar even has little tables on the traffic railings. I want to ask Dr Ko if bars are allowed to serve food and alcohol to people standing in the streets. I want to know if bars are allowed to attach tables to the pavement railings to serve food and alcohol.

        I was so fed up with the loud music that two weeks ago I called the police twice within three days. I complained about the loud music from Wyndham Street and from a live band at a bar below the LKF Hotel. The police were very helpful but admitted their hands were tied. When your hands are tied it means you don't have the power to do much. The policeman said telling the bar owners to stop the music was only a short-term solution because the music would return later the same night. He suggested I inform the district council. The Environmental Protection Department said its hands were also tied because the bars were collectively making noise. To take action it must identify which bar was bothering me！ The Liquor Licensing Board told me to call the police！ So you see, Dr Ko, the noise law is a big, fat joke because no one in the government wants to take responsibility.

        * * *

        我不認識食物及衞生局局長高永文，但希望他讀這篇文章。我想讓他知道，近日（lately）我夜夜難眠（sleepless nights）。最近有多份報紙報道高醫生造訪酒吧區，了解樓上酒吧對居民構成的危險與噪音。我願他不是在做騷。如果高醫生真的關心居民，他好應找個周末的深宵，到訪蘭桂坊酒店附近的雲咸街，我就住在那兒，敢肯定他必會被眼前情景嚇倒——所有酒吧都備有擴音器，播放震耳欲聾（ear-splitting）的音樂。

        所有的道路和行人通道都被那些吵鬧又醉酒的人堵塞着，沒有任何車或人可以經過。有一間酒吧甚至在路旁的欄杆上放小桌子。我想問問高醫生，酒吧給站在街上的人奉上食物與酒精飲品，是容許的嗎？我想知道，酒吧是否已獲得批准，可以在行人通道的欄杆上安裝餐桌，供應食物和酒精飲品？

        我已經受夠了那些嘈吵的音樂，兩星期前，我三天內報了兩次警，投訴雲咸街和蘭桂坊酒店地下一間酒吧的現場樂隊演奏所製造的嘈吵音樂。警察很熱心幫忙，但坦承他們愛莫能助（their hands were tied）。When your hands are tied即是說你無能為力。警察說，要求酒吧東主停止音樂只是治標不治本，因為同一晚那些音樂又會「死灰復燃」。他建議我通知區議會。環保署則說他們也是愛莫能助（hands were also tied），因為酒吧在集體製造噪音，只有先辨別是哪一間酒吧在滋擾我，才能作出行動！酒牌局則着我報警！所以，高醫生，甚麼噪音管制也只是個天大的笑話，因為政府裏人人都想置身事外呢。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

從籍貫看中共新貴 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

22 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　中共第18次全國代表大會已選出新一屆最高領導層，七名政治局常委分別是習近平、李克強、張德江、張高麗、俞正聲、王歧山及劉雲山。眾所周知，中國地大物博，文化淵源豐富，各地風土人情紛紜複雜，籍貫與民風之間，或多或少存在著某種關係，而中國的「籍貫政治」色彩，舉世最為濃厚，這也許與悠久的農耕文明所孕育的宗族意識、鄉土情結、血緣網路及其相應的裙帶文化，息息相關。是故看看中共新貴的籍貫，對今後領導風格的特色，不無參考價值。

 

　　七名新貴，習近平是陝西富平人，李克強是安徽定遠人，張德江是遼寧台安人，張高麗是福建晉江人，俞正聲是浙江紹興人，王歧山是山西天鎮人，劉雲山是山西忻州人。七名新貴，分屬六個省份：陝西、安徽、遼寧、福建、浙江和山西。

 

　　陝西人的歷史底蘊深厚，名人有白居易、孫思邈、司馬遷等。漢人祖先軒轅黃帝正是下葬於陝西的黃陵，更不要說古稱長安的西安是十三朝古都。陝西人大多身體健壯，秦軍號稱「虎狼之師」，「國」字型臉的人很普遍，樸訥溫厚而又爽直，但如今已比較安於現狀和保守，對人厚道也有原則，且看習近平是否有此特點。

 

　　至於安徽人，據說靈柔不如南方仔，剛猛不如北方佬。有著南人與北人之間的過渡性格，剛柔相濟、平凡而恬淡，他們都很實事求是，刻苦耐勞，而徽商稱雄商界300年，對中國近代政治和文化有著深刻影響，可是今天的安徽經濟已今非昔比，且看身為經濟學博士的李克強，做了總理後能否一振頽風。

 

　　如今所說的東北人包括黑龍江、吉林和遼寧三省，淵源於古代的北蠻夷，略帶鮮卑血統，其天性豪放，激情而張揚，內質剛毅，外表強悍，欠溫柔氣息。東北人熱情火爆，喜歡路見不平，拔刀相助，他們大多善良，富有同情心，但也有些人處事狠快俐落。如今身為遼寧人的張德江，因做過廣東省委書記，也許已沾染了南方氣質而有所不同。

 

　　張高麗是福建人，這地方淵源於河姆度族類的旁支，春秋戰國曾屬吳越管轄。古時福建人已沒田可種，只好經商，流行漂洋過海謀生，勤奮、吃苦、愛冒險、適應能力強、但一般都不輕易相信別人。他們的聰明非同一般，可說是足智多謀，且慳儉者多。

 

　　說到浙江紹興人，一向被稱為「師爺」，似乎先天有「刀筆吏」的素質。清代曾流行過這樣的話：「無紹不成衙，無徽不成當」，指當時衙門的幕僚多由紹興人擔任。紹興人天生聰明又擅文辭，很少進入官場做大官，但是許多人憑其辯才做了幕僚。俞正聲任職上海市委書記期間，褒貶不一，他又是否一個「刀筆吏」的人才﹖

 

　　最後，王歧山和劉雲山都是山西人。「正方臉，棱角分明，鼻短而大」，是典型的山西人形象。他們多是老實，守本分，忠誠可靠，喜歡按部就班。古代的晉商「滙通天下」，但有俗語稱山西人爲九毛九，指其精打細算是超乎尋常。總之他們複雜多變，有的怕事，拘謹﹔有的又勇敢，放縱，其性格較難捉摸。

 

點解蘋果會贏？ / 維基解碼 by 王維基

22 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　不知大家有沒有發現，在眾多智能手機中，只有iPhone是得一個型號，其他手機韓國或台灣的智能手機品牌，都會有四、五款不同價錢、不同功能的型號在市場推出，針對不同的消費對象。聽起來這個做法十分合理，不需要複雜功能的消費者，可以選擇價錢較平的型號；願意付出較多的消費者，就可以選擇較多功能、價錢較貴的型號。

 

　　但是，為甚麼蘋果的做法如此獨特，消費者只能選擇買或不買呢？

 

　　蘋果的iPhone除了記憶容量的級別外，基本上其餘功能都一樣，甚至不讓你換電，更加不讓你拆開手機。大家都知道，iPhone的電池消耗速度很快，而我亦深信蘋果是知道的，但他們就是不肯改變不讓用家換電的做法。更進一步的是，iPhone只有一個按鈕，它不像其他智能手機在機身不同位置會有兩、三個按鈕，供用戶選擇不同功能。這就是蘋果的設計哲學；將最簡單、最好的給大家。結果，蘋果成功地風靡萬千擁躉。

 

　　據我所知，這種設計「法規」，是由已去世的喬布斯留下來的。

 

　　最近，蘋果竟然願意和其他廠家達成和解協議。這顯示出現時的管理層已經離棄喬布斯的原則，和不會放過對手的精神背道而馳。如果蘋果繼續離棄喬布斯的營商哲學，慢慢地放棄他們特色，將會與其他競爭對手愈來愈相似。

 

　　蘋果贏，是因為無論你喜歡與否，它總是我行我素。

 

轉載自晴報

怎能在叻人中突圍而出？ / 維基解碼 by 王維基

21 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　剛剛去了劇集拍攝場地探班。我知道有位資深藝員一直在某院校教授演技，他今次就為我們的劇擔當主角。

　　今天，他安排了一班學生來參觀拍劇，當中一位演技相當出色的學生竟然遲了半小時才到達現場。那位學生到達時雖然也有禮貌地致歉，但那位資深演員就表示：「你不必向我致歉，其實你只是對不起自己，對不起你父母。」

　　時下的年輕人在知識和技能上，都有很高水平，但在社會工作講求的是態度，認真的態度。我記得當年考會考，由於自己的數學成績很好，有信心奪A級成績，但為了要肯定這個A級，我會事前熟習路線，從屋企乘搭同一條巴士路線到試場，確保不會迷路和遲到。會考那天，我真的準時到達試場。

　　很多人很具天賦。但怎能在一堆叻人中突圍而出呢？就是態度。如果你能以認真的態度將絲毫細節做到最好，就會令人刮目相看。
 

轉載自晴報

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-20

Last week I asked if Hong Kong people were getting value for money by paying our top government officials excessive（more than normal or necessary）salaries. Some readers emailed me to say people are definitely not getting value for money for our excessively-paid（overpaid）officials. I agree. For example, Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor earns around $300,000 a month. She lives in a huge mansion on the Peak paid for by taxpayers. And she has a car with a chauffeur （driver） also paid for by taxpayers. What value has she brought to Hong Kong people in return for her huge pay and perks？

        T he word perk has several meanings. When used as a slang word it means special benefits, such as a housing allowance or a car with a driver. Value for money, as I explained last week, means getting good value, or a good deal, for the money you spend. Lam was the development secretary for many years but we still have a shortage of land for affordable housing and people living in subdivided flats. It is easy to conclude （make a decision or judgment） that she was not value for money as our development secretary.

        How can officials understand the needs and thinking of ordinary people when they are given such generous pay and perks？ They live in cloud cuckoo land. This means they live in an imaginary world of their own and are out of touch with reality. Our top officials need to stop living in cloud cuckoo land. They can only do that if their salaries are cut to the level of what officials in other societies earn. We must take away expensive perks such as housing allowances, education allowances for their children, and chauffeur-driven cars. We must force them to pay for their own housing and for their children's education. We must make them use public transport such as the MTR and live for a month in subdivided flats. Only then will they know how it feels to live like normal people.

        * * *

        上星期我問過，到底香港人納稅付一眾政府高官過高（excessive）的薪金，是否物有所值（value for money）？有好些讀者寄電郵給我，說那些薪酬過高（excessively-paid）的官員當然絕非物有所值（value for money）。我很同意。例如，政務司司長林鄭月娥月入三十萬。她住的半山大宅是納稅人付款的。她還有輛私家車，有司機（chauffeur）接送，也是納稅人付款的。她這些龐大的開支與津貼（perks），又為香港人換來甚麼益處？

        Perk有幾個意思，用作俚語時就解作額外津貼，例如房屋津貼或房車和司機。Value for money，正如我上星期解釋過，就是物有所值。林鄭當了多年的發展局局長，但我們仍然缺乏可以用作興建價格相宜房屋的土地，人們還住在劏房裏。那就很容易下定論（to conclude），她當發展局局長根本不是物有所值（value for money）。

        一個享受如此豐厚俸祿和津貼（perks）的官員，怎能明白到普通市民的需要和想法？他們簡直就是住在世外桃源（cloud cuckoo land），住在他們自己想像出來又脫離現實的地方。我們的高官們不應再住在世外桃源（cloud cuckoo land）。只有當他們的薪金與其他地方官員的薪金看齊，他們方能做得到。我們得削減他們那些昂貴的津貼（perks），例如房屋津貼、子女教育津貼和有司機（chauffeur）的房車。我們得強迫他們去為自己的房屋和子女的教育付費。我們得迫使他們用港鐵這些公共交通工具代步，還得住進劏房一個月。只有這樣，他們才明白像普通人一樣的生活是怎樣的滋味。mickchug@gmail.com Michael Chugani

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

不要脫離群眾 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

20 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　好多朋友和傳媒都叫我評論一下亞洲電視播放那個叫做《關注香港未來》的節目。礙於我和亞視在免費電視牌照上的關係較為敏感，如果我隨便發表評論，似乎有公器私用的嫌疑。

 

　　但我想指出的是，作為一個媒體，無論是娛樂還是新聞媒體，都必須具公信力。亞視若果因為資源不足，所製作的節目質素較為遜色，大眾都可能會理解和體諒；但若果電視媒體失去了公信力，就好像當年《東周刊》因為一則封面報道最後需要賣盤重新推倒重來一樣，再做下去也沒有意思。

 

　　早幾個月的江澤民死訊誤報事件，然後中聯辦出來否認，已經令亞視的公信力嚴重受挫。他們的管理層一方面營造自己在內地的廣泛人脈，但連一件如此重要的消息都誤報，無論是普通市民還是左派人士，都覺得匪夷所思。

 

　　到現時，我只可以建議亞視，真的不要再出來表態了。我們必需要承認內地和香港的文化差異，這並不代表誰錯誰對，只代表大家的文化是有分別的。

 

　　我們要知道，這個文化差異的鴻溝愈來愈大，這樣做只會令市民和觀眾認清這個電視台的管理層原來這麼脫離群眾，和群眾思想相距甚遠，對電視台並無益處。

 

轉載自晴報

 

Financial District Project in China Has Local Support - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

2012-11-19

TIANJIN, China — China is full of big bets that the country’s breakneck economic growth will continue apace, but few are bigger than the vast Yujiapu financial district here.

Nicknamed China’s new Manhattan, the district comprises at least 47 skyscrapers being built on desolate coastal salt flats 100 miles southeast of Beijing. Financed by huge loans from state-owned banks, the district is an immense public works project, and is closely associated with Zhang Gaoli, the little-known Communist Party secretary of Tianjin who joined the new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee last week at the end of the 18th Party Congress.

Mr. Zhang has emerged as the man expected, after approval by the National People’s Congress in March, to handle day-to-day management of the Chinese economy. He won out over Wang Qishan, who has a much deeper background in economic and financial policy making and was seen as likely to clash with and perhaps even overshadow the incoming prime minister, Li Keqiang. Chinese leaders have not forgotten how Zhu Rongji, with a similarly deep background, managed to dominate economic policy making from his position as executive vice premier in the mid-1990s.

As the Yujiapu project makes clear, Mr. Zhang has been a defender of huge government-guided investments, an approach that very much fits the mold of ambitious party officials eager to get ahead within the existing power structure. At the same time, say experts and people who know him, he has cultivated an image as a stern bureaucratic taskmaster, a politician who can get things done by working with powerful business interests rather than challenging them.

“He’s a very strong guy,” said Jean-Luc Charles, the general manager of Airbus’s assembly plant here for the A320 jetliner, who had nothing but praise for Mr. Zhang. “He sets a target and people run.”

But Mr. Zhang also has some surprising characteristics. In Tianjin, he has pushed to expand retailing and other services as a way to create jobs beyond construction and manufacturing. He also is an advocate for firm environmental and labor standards aimed at improving the lives of ordinary Chinese.

After a series of increases during Mr. Zhang’s tenure, the city’s minimum wage is now 4 percent higher than Beijing’s — even though Tianjin is considerably poorer over all. And while Tianjin cracked down on labor protests in the summer of 2010, the municipal authorities have since set up a trade union for migrant workers, who usually have few legal protections.

The migrant workers’ union “negotiated a reasonable deal for sanitation workers in the city,” said Geoffrey Crothall, the spokesman for China Labor Bulletin, a nonprofit group in Hong Kong that favors the establishment of independent unions in China.

Tianjin residents described two street protests here in April, one against a $1.7 billion expansion project at a chemical plant and the other against a real estate developer who was accused of absconding with apartment buyers’ deposits. The authorities were quick to negotiate compromises in both cases, suspending construction at the chemical plant, even though it was being built by Sinopec, one of the largest state-owned enterprises, while tracking down the developer and requiring restitution. They did not resort to calling riot police to disperse the protesters, as municipal leaders have sometimes done elsewhere in China, residents said.

Tianjin has adopted many Western pollution regulations and in some cases tightened them further. Air and water emissions from the Airbus factory here are monitored by pollution equipment that is connected around the clock to government monitoring computers.

It is not clear, though, whether these policies reflect a personal commitment by Mr. Zhang to progressive social policies or his penchant for setting rules and making sure people follow them. Perhaps both.

“Zhang is very strong with all the regulations — do it in accordance with the regulations and no joke,” Mr. Charles said.

Mayor Huang Xingguo of Tianjin, the second-ranking official in this city of 13 million after Mr. Zhang, cited the city’s many parks and its air quality — though by some estimates it is only marginally better than Beijing’s — at a news conference in Beijing late last week during the party congress.

At the same time, he added a commercial note that captures the tone of the city’s administration: “We hope you come to Tianjin to buy houses.”

......

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/asia/the-new-manhattan-of-china-has-local-support.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

企業管治有助改革 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

19 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　承接上周五的文章，今日續談安永企業家大獎2012香港區大獎得主，美心集團的主席兼董事總經理伍偉國先生。

 

　　之前提到最低工資對美心集團的影響。與他的十幾分鐘對話中，我最認同他的一件事，是如何在過往二十年間，將美心由傳統家族生意變成今天具規模的生意。

 

　　首要的，是要令集團內的家族長輩相信，改革可以令集團變得更好。他首先成立新團隊，開了一家新餐廳，然後到外國考察，引入他們的經驗。在第一間小餐廳取得成功以後，他再做第二間。改革的過程中，就是需要一步一步地做，逐步取得成功。

 

　　到現時，伍先生基本上已更換整個管理團隊，成功引入新思維。更重要的是，他引入怡和集團，成為持股量50％的股東；整個集團亦因為新股東的加入，而更加堅守企業管治，令美心集團即使不是上市公司，也擁有與上市公司無異的企業管治標準。

 

　　這令我想起自己公司在2005至06年改革時所走的路—運用企業管治去令營運踏上正路。雖然要按一定指引做事，但得到的裨益遠超營運上的不便。

 

轉載自晴報

大集團與小店 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

16 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　安永企業家大獎2012，香港區大獎的得主是香港美心集團的主席兼董事總經理伍偉國先生。

 

　　美心集團現在面對最大的挑戰，是租金令成本上漲。當我問他最低工資和標準工時對集團的影響時，他表示這兩項措施對大集團的影響其實不大，因為水漲船高，大集團擁有品牌優勢和龐大的分店網絡，消費者對大集團的食物質素亦較具信心，所以他們輕易將成本轉嫁消費者身上。但對於小店來說，最低工資和標準工時對他們帶來很大壓力。許多小店如茶餐廳等多做熟客生意，他們未必有能力將成本轉移至消費者身上，以致利潤下降，甚至倒閉。

 

　　我不敢說他的想法是對是錯，但實際情況是，近年的香港確是少了很多小店，基本上市場已被大型連鎖店所壟斷。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-15

Did you know Hong Kong's government officials are the second-highest-paid in the world？ Only officials in Singapore are paid more. Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is paid more than US president Barack Obama. Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor earns more than US vice president Joe Biden. Security Secretary Lai Tung-kwok has a higher pay than FBI director Robert Mueller. But are Hong Kong taxpayers getting value for money？ Of course not. Singapore has the world's highest-paid government officials but the air is clean, people live in nice and spacious （large） homes, there are no subdivided flats, and income disparity is not as shameful as in Hong Kong. Singaporeans are getting value for money.

        I n Hong Kong the air sucks, home prices are so unaffordable that many people live in slum flats, and income disparity is the worst in the developed world. Hong Kong people are not getting value for money. The expression value for money means getting good value for the money you spend. For example, it is value for money if you can buy a spacious and new Mid-Levels flat for only $4 million. It is not value for money if officials get very high pay but fail to do their jobs properly. The word disparity means inequality or a great difference. Income disparity means a great difference and inequality in income or pay.

        The word suck has several meanings but when used as slang it means lousy, useless, or terrible. If the watch you bought doesn't work you can say:"My new watch sucks." If the food in a restaurant is lousy you can say: "The food sucks." When I say Hong Kong's air sucks it means we have terrible air quality. A slum （noun） is a poor and overcrowded district, usually in the city. A slum flat is a dirty and run-down （in terrible condition） flat in a slum area. I think we should cut the pay of our senior officials, take away their government cars and housing allowances and force them to live in slum flats.

        * * *

        你知不知道，香港官員的薪金是全球第二高的？唯獨新加坡的官員薪金更高。特首梁振英比美國總統奧巴馬更高薪；政務司司長林鄭月娥的收入高於美國副總統拜登；保安局局長黎棟國的薪金也高於聯邦調查局局長羅伯特。可是，香港納稅人是否取回物有所值（value for money）的回報？當然沒有。新加坡官員的薪酬全球最高，但那兒的空氣清新，人們住在雅致又寬敞（spacious）的家，那兒沒有劏房，貧富懸殊（income disparity）也沒有香港的來得如此丟臉。新加坡人納稅就真的物有所值（value for money）了。

        在香港，空氣糟透了（sucks），樓價高得教人負擔不起，許多人只能住在貧民窟（slum）般的單位，貧富懸殊（income disparity）的情況則是全球已發展的地區中最惡劣的。香港人納稅就不太物有所值（value for money）。習語value for money就是物有所值。例如，假若你只花了四百萬，就買得位處半山又寬敞的新樓，那就真是物有所值（value for money）了。但要是官員領取高薪厚祿，卻沒有好好履行職務，那就不是物有所值（value for money）。Disparity解作不等或很大的差異。Income disparity則是收入不等或有很大的差距。

        Suck這個字有幾個意思，但用作俚語時則解作討厭、無用或極差的。如果你買了一隻手錶但壞了，你可以說：「我的新錶糟透了（sucks）。」要是某間餐廳的食物難吃極了，你可以說：「食物很爛（sucks）。」當我說Hong Kong's air sucks即是說我們的空氣質素很惡劣。名詞slum解作擠逼又貧困的地區，通常處於城市中。A slum flat就是在貧民窟（slum）中骯髒而破落（run-down）的單位。我認為我們應該削減高官的薪酬，取去他們的官用房車和房屋津貼，強迫他們住進貧民（slum）單位才對。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

如果胡錦濤「裸退」... / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

15 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　中共第18次全國代表大會已於11月14日閉幕，選舉產生新一屆中央委員會，並於11 月15日召開一中全會，選舉產生新一屆領導層，以及決定中央軍委的人選。新領導人習近平會否接替胡錦濤擔任軍委主席備受關注，外間一直盛傳胡錦濤會在18大後「裸退」。

 

　　「裸退」是中國廿一世紀的新名詞，指的是退得一乾二淨，絕不拖泥帶水。這名詞源自2007年12月，當時的國務院副總理吳儀因於翌年3月退休，在公開場合對五百餘名企業人士說：「我的退休叫做『裸退』，無論是官方、半官方的、還是群眾性的，我都不再擔任任何職務，希望你們完全把我忘記！」當場掌聲久久不息。

 

　　本來叫「全退」就可以了，偏偏用上「裸退」這個「赤裸裸」字眼，使人想到吳儀是否在官場久了，見盡人事升降的冷暖而暗有所指﹖當時她又提到：「我現在每年所有收入十二萬（人民幣），還包括了保母費。我相信你們都拿的比我多，你們誰敢說沒有別墅？我希望在座諸位要廉潔，只拿該拿的，一定要拿得正當！」

 

　　吳儀無愧是中國「鐵娘子」的稱號；一句「裸退」，拿得起，放得下。 她也令人想起另一個早已裸退的「鐵漢」朱鎔基，他的豪語則是：「準備一百副棺材，九十九副給貪官污吏，一副留給我自己。」

 

　　「裸退」一詞出現後，內地各媒體爭相引用。至於胡錦濤會否「裸退」，本文執筆時仍是未知數。但前香港特首、現任政協副主席董建華9月間接受美國媒體訪問時曾說，根據以往經驗，胡錦濤在18大卸任黨內職務後，可能仍會保留軍委主席職務。

 

　　如果胡錦濤真的「裸退」，由習近平真接任軍委主席，這就改變了鄧小平、江澤民交班時，留任軍委主席一段時間，對繼任者「扶上馬，送一程」的模式。以江澤民為例，他在2002年中共16大以後就未曾「裸退」，直到2004年9月才宣布辭去軍委主席職務。

 

　　再看十八大開幕時，八十六歲的江澤民成為全場焦點，他精神奕奕，入場時毋須警衛攙扶，或與胡錦濤並肩而立，或正襟危坐，氣派十足，盡顯其特殊地位，以及無所不在的影響力。而胡錦濤在報告還特用一段，頌揚江澤民「開創全面改革開放新局面」。

 

　　在18大開幕式，江澤民始終是個標誌性人物，其影響力不容小覷，甚至有看法認為，新一代領導人的選擇定奪都是由江澤民同意才拍板，簡言之，他是在「垂簾聽政」。因此如果胡錦濤真的「裸退」，會否意味他通過自身的徹底引退，有助推動黨內人事工作嚴格化，清除長期「垂簾」的江澤民在黨內的影響力﹖

 

　　無論如何，中國的老人政治一向為人詬病，被批評為一個過時的、教條主義的和僵化的制度，而如果胡錦濤真的「裸退」，會被視為中共權力交班的一個好的開端，更是中國政治改革的一個促進。因為老人政治沒有結束，政治改革很難開展。

 

　　畢竟習近平作為建國後出生的第一代領導人，要想在政改、民生和文化建設等方面有切實作為，老一輩領導應不予過多干涉，給予其足夠空間發揮執政的才智。

 

克服困難的關鍵 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

15 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　在安永2012年中國企業家大獎中，第二位令我敬佩的人是謝瑞麟珠寶現任主席及行政總裁謝邱安儀女士。由於家翁和丈夫牽涉在法庭案件中，她在2008年臨危受命，接替集團主席及行政總裁的工作。雖然Annie之前都在謝瑞麟珠寶的管理層內，但從個人角度試想一下，突然間家族發生巨變，她不單要照顧家中老少，還要擔當重任，當中承受的壓力可想而知。

 

　　我問她，當時她遇到最大的問題是甚麼。她表示是信心問題，是來自同事對她的擔心。由於她不像謝瑞麟先生般有豐富的珠寶經驗，一班老師傅自然擔心公司能否撑下去。她只有用真誠的態度去虛心學習，以愛護家人的心去保護同事、家庭和公司。

 

　　她分享的另一個重點是，其實，壞事也有好的一面。當時，我想到自己正面對電視牌照的難題——自我安慰地想，若果今次沒有發生這個大風波，也不會有這麼多香港人關心牌照問題，令放上網的公司簡介片數天內已有超過十四萬點擊率，日後開台時可省卻大肆宣傳的麻煩。

 

　　無論是年輕人、中年人還是老年人，總會遇到困難的；這刻，能否正面看待事情，是克服困難的關鍵。

轉載自晴報 

成功在執行力 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

14 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　上個星期五、六，我去了北京，當然不是開十八大會議，而是為安永2012年中國企業家大獎做評審。

 

　　每次做類似的評審工作，其實都會見到許多創業家及企業家，他們會有類似的故事。　

 

　　創業家開始時一定是小規模的。以6waves的周邦亮先生為例，他在2008年創業，當時只有四名員工。三年後，6waves雖然仍未上市，但營業額已超過二億四千萬人民幣。他們的業務很簡單，是智能電話的遊戲和社交網絡平台上的遊戲。周邦亮先生有一句說話是我也常常掛在口邊的：「機會永遠只會垂青有準備的人。」一個不到三十歲的年輕人創業故事，再一次證明，大家不要再投訴現今世界沒有為年輕人提供足夠機會。

 

　　和周先生面試時，我問了一個蠢問題：「請告訴我，五年之後6waves會是一間怎樣的公司。」他覺得成功的關鍵在於執行，因為在互聯網世界，市場、技術和客戶要求都轉變得很快，所以他直言沒有這樣長遠的計劃，他只會順著機會而行。

 

　　其實，我過往二十年也是這樣，哪有甚麼計劃：成功大部分原因在於執行。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-13

I am suffering from writer's block. It took me hours to write this column. I couldn't think of anything to write about. I tossed ideas around in my head but couldn't decide which one to use. Should I write about Barack Obama winning the US elections? Or should I write about President Hu Jintao's speech at the Communist Party's 18th National Congress? Maybe I could write about the political bickering over the government's plan to give elderly people an old age living allowance of $2,200 a month. I agree with the government that only elderly people in need should receive this money. I think legislative councilors who want to give all elderly people $2,200, including those who don't need it, are brainless.

        A s I tossed these ideas around I received several junk calls. That made my writer's block worse. I wanted to tear my hair out. Every time I receive a junk call I pretend I don't know how to speak Cantonese. Most junk callers can't speak English and so I always say: "What? What?" They will then ask: "Do you speak Cantonese?" I always say: "No." They will then hang up. The word junk can be used in many different ways. It means a kind of Chinese boat with a sail.

        But as a slang word it means rubbish. Junk food means unhealthy, fast food. Junk calls are phone calls from people who try to sell you things. Writer's block is when a writer is unable to write anything no matter how hard he tries. Tossing ideas around in your head means to think of and consider different ideas. To bicker means to quarrel over small things. A brainless person is a stupid or unintelligent person. I think Hong Kong has many brainless politicians. When you say you want to tear your hair out it means you are very frustrated or angry. But you don't actually tear out your hair! I have always wondered if bald people use this expression. I am very proud of myself. I managed to write this column even though I have writer's block.

        ***

        我苦於文思枯竭（writer's block），單是這篇專欄就花了我好幾個小時，想來想去也不知該寫甚麼。有幾個想法在腦海中盤旋（tossed ideas around in my head），但不知道該寫哪一個。我該寫寫奧巴馬勝出美國大選？抑或寫寫國家主席胡錦濤在中共十八大的講話？還是我該寫一寫有關政府計劃發放每月二千二百元長者生活津貼的這場政治爭吵（bickering）？我同意政府應該只讓有需要的長者領取津貼。我認為有些立法會議員，要求發放給所有長者，連不需要這筆錢的人都包括在內，都是沒腦的（brainless）。

        當我翻來覆去的想着這幾個點子（tossed these ideas around）之際，竟又收到幾個垃圾電話（junk calls）。本來枯竭的文思（writer's block）更形枯竭，我真的要抓狂（tear my hair out）了。每一次收到垃圾電話（junk call），我總會裝作不懂說廣東話。大部份打垃圾電話來的人（junk callers）都不懂說英語，於是我總會說：「甚麼？甚麼？」他們就會問：「你懂說廣東話嗎？」我說：「不。」然後他們便會收線。Junk這個字可以有幾種用法。它可以解作中國帆船。

        但在俗語中，它就解作垃圾。Junk food是垃圾食物，即是不健康食物或快餐。Junk calls就是廣告或傳銷電話。Writer's block是當一個寫作的人無論怎樣努力，也寫不出甚麼來。Tossing ideas around in your head即是想到和考慮到不同的想法。To bicker即是在小事上爭吵。A brainless person就是一個愚笨的人。我認為香港有許多愚笨的（brainless）從政者。當你說你想tear your hair out，即是說你很懊惱或憤怒，但你可不會真的扯掉頭髮！我常常想，到底禿頭的人會不會用這個習語。我為自己感到自豪，即使我文思枯竭（writer's block），我仍然寫好了這篇專欄。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

互相制衡 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

13 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　在管理層面上，我們常常面對同事的晉升難題，怎樣才能做到公平呢？甲隊的某同事升職，那乙隊相同職級的同事呢？應該用甚麼評核標準呢？

 

　　現在，我們管理藝術創作和製作的團隊，所面對的困難更大。舉個例子，王家衞導演的電影好看與否，都沒有客觀的評定標準。從事創作工作的，就更加要用到主觀標準去衡量。

 

　　如果我們只是任由部門主管提名和建議來決定晉升，就容易失去制衡，出現「山寨主義」，甚至擦鞋文化。其中一個考慮中的處理辦法，就是以評審委員會的形式決定升職，就好像警察晉升面試一樣。但是，就算安排另一個部門的管理層面試，也可能因為大家的同事關係和本著「互相幫助」的心態，影響了公平性。

 

　　所以，最近我們想出了一個方法：當你建議晉升某同事時，會由其他三組的管理層組成考核小組，一同進行面試。要三位內有兩位同意，才能升職；然後，這位獲升職的同事會被派到兩位同意他升職的部門主管內，其中一位的隊伍內。這樣，負責評核的部門主管就會小心一點，因為這位被建議升職的同事將來有可能加入自己的隊伍。

 

　　我們希望這種互相制衡的方式，能夠令負責評核的部門主管較為負責任，投下公平的一票。

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

China Mandates ‘Social Risk’ Reviews for Big Projects - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

2012-11-12

BEIJING — The cabinet of China has ordered that all major industrial projects must pass a “social risk assessment” before they begin, a move aimed at curtailing the large and increasingly violent environmental protests of the last year, which forced the suspension or cancellation of chemical plants, coal-fired power plants and a giant copper smelter.

The announcement came at a news conference on Monday held in conjunction with the 18th Party Congress, at which several senior officials addressed social issues ahead of the once-in-a decade transition of power in the Chinese leadership.

“No major projects can be launched without social risk evaluations,” Zhou Shengxian, the environment minister, said at the news conference. “By doing so, I hope we can reduce the number of mass incidents in the future.”

When the protests began, they drew mostly middle-age and older Chinese who had little to lose if the police put disparaging remarks about them into the files that the government maintains on every citizen. But over the past several months, angry youths have gathered from several towns and have used social media to coordinate their activities during clashes with security forces — trends that are certain to have dismayed the country’s political leadership.

The national government had previously said on several occasions that it was studying ways to conduct social risk evaluations, and the current Five-Year Plan through 2015 calls for a mechanism to be created to make such assessments. Some local and provincial governments already have procedures for assessing whether a community will reject a planned project, separate from environmental risk assessments.

But Mr. Zhou is the first to say that the cabinet, known as the State Council, has actually ordered that no more major projects be started without a social risk assessment, said Ma Jun, the director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, one of the best-known environmental groups in Beijing.

Mr. Zhou also noted that effective Sept. 1, all government agencies in China had been ordered to make public all environmental impact assessments by posting them on the Internet, with a description of what the government planned to do about the assessments. The decision was announced at the time, but received limited attention.

Mr. Zhou said that mass protests tended to happen because of one or more of the mistakes that the government now intends to remedy. These mistakes involve projects that start without official approval, without proper environmental impact assessments and without an assessment of community sentiment, he said, and weak local governments may also be a factor.

He did not provide a description of how social risk assessments would be conducted, but he indicated that they would involve looking at the likelihood that a project would set off a public backlash.

Societies inevitably become more aware of environmental issues as they develop, and this is happening in China, Mr. Zhou said. He took a fairly sympathetic tone toward the protesters, changing tack only once, when he used a derogatory term for those who object only to the proximity of a project and not to its environmental fundamentals.

“We are beginning to see a ‘not in my backyard’ phenomenon,” he said.

Each new protest in recent months has set off frenzied national discussions on Sina Weibo, the popular Chinese microblogging site, soaring repeatedly to the top of the list of most-searched subjects.

China has led the world in economic growth for the past three decades, but it has paid a heavy environmental price. Acrid smog coats most large Chinese cities for much of the year, while many lakes and rivers are contaminated with heavy metals and toxic chemicals.

Thousands of young protesters fought with the riot police for two nights in early July in Shifang, in western China, prompting the local government to announce the cancellation of a giant copper smelter that was seen by the demonstrators as a pollution threat. The government also issued a public warning on the Internet that any further protests would be met with force.

But the next night, the largest crowd yet gathered to demand the release of dozens of protesters detained during the two previous nights, and the local government backed down and released them.

Many environmental officials in China want the introduction of social risk assessments because protests against industrial projects often involve broader issues than just the environment and may extend to questions like whether the land for the project was lawfully obtained with proper compensation for its previous owners, Mr. Ma said.

Powerful vested interests often have stakes in projects, and they have far more influence than local environmental officials. But when projects set off rioting, environmental regulators tend to be blamed for having allowed construction to begin.

“The environmental agencies feel they have been put under too much pressure, beyond the authority they’ve got,” Mr. Ma said.

At the news conference on Monday, other senior officials also described problems with surprising candor, although always careful to say how they planned to address the problems.

Zhu Zhixin, a vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that many citizens found it hard to afford medical care at big hospitals in large cities, despite rapid moves in the past decade to introduce at least some health insurance for 95 percent of the population. The government is trying to expand the availability of clinics and other medical institutions in smaller cities and towns, he said.

Jiang Weixin, the minister of housing and urban and rural development, said the government was not ready to relax its strict real estate regulations, which are aimed at discouraging speculation to improve housing affordability. Developers have been complaining that the rules, including limits on the purchase of second and subsequent apartments, have depressed demand and hurt the construction industry.

......

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/world/asia/china-mandates-social-risk-reviews-for-big-projects.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

ATV的教訓 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

12 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　早幾個星期，《經濟日報》專欄作家「活力先生」給我八條問題。其中一條問題是：「ATV的日子最深刻的教訓」。

 

　　在亞視做了12日行政總裁，已經是四年前的事，大部分事情已經很依稀。最記得、最經典的是我在公司內找不同通訊錄。一家有幾百名員工的公司，竟然沒有內部電話號碼的通訊錄。有一次，和公司內六個主要部門的主管開會，每個部門帶兩位下屬出席會議，我到場時發現各部門的同事正在交換卡片。確是很獨特的文化，一家幾百人的公司，同事之間沒有任何溝通，互不認識。

 

　　當時我想，要重振這個電視台，一定要推倒重來，重新建立品牌。所以，和董事會討論之後，我大力推行改革。可是，後來發現，即使某些在會議中大家同意的決定，到後來因為某些原因要有人負責，甚至出來「祭旗」的，這個角色就一定落在我這個打工仔身上。

 

　　那12天給我最深刻的體會是，要有膽量做老闆；若果你沒有做老闆的膽量只能做打工仔的話，就不要意見多多，絕對不能輕言「改變」，因為你根本無法改變老闆，只會被老闆改變。

 

　　所以我要當一個能被改變的老闆。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

 

Heavy Lending Creates a Surge in Chinese Economy - NYTimes.com by Keith Bradsher

2012-11-09

BEIJING — The Chinese economy grew faster than expected last month even as inflation slowed, official statistics showed on Friday, as the government continued heavy lending through its state-owned banks to rekindle growth.

The latest data, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and electricity generation, were stronger than most economists had anticipated. They presented a consistent picture of an economy that is starting to show real growth again after a very weak spring and summer.

“It has become increasingly clear that the Chinese economy is now moving in a better direction,” Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, said at a news conference Thursday, before the October figures were publicly released.

Bank economists increasingly agree. “October’s growth data delivered pleasant upside surprises across the board, providing fresh evidence that the economy has indeed bottomed out thanks to the filtering through of Beijing’s policy easing,” Sun Junwei, a China economist at HSBC, wrote in a research report Friday afternoon.

To be sure, the economic statistics released by the government Friday showed a return to the fairly strong economic expansion that prevailed through much of last year and early this year, and not a return to the torrid, double-digit growth that China has enjoyed for much of the last decade.

Australia & New Zealand Banking said in a research note that the latest figures were consistent with 8 percent economic growth in the last quarter of this year and even faster expansion in the first quarter of next year.

Growth had weakened to 7.4 percent in the third quarter and 7.6 percent in the second quarter, according to official statistics. Many economists have been suspicious that even the figures from earlier this year might have been overstated, given the weakness in categories like electricity generation, which grew barely at all in the second quarter and only slowly in the third quarter.

By contrast, the economic expansion this autumn appears more broadly based. Business executives have begun to describe recovering exports and domestic sales, and cranes have begun moving again on the skylines of big cities like Guangzhou and Beijing.

Steel mills and concrete factories are busier. Power generation increased 6.4 percent last month from the same period a year ago, its strongest gain since March, although still well below the double-digit annual gains in previous years.

But the renewed growth has been fueled by rapidly mounting debt, as state-owned banks and the central bank have funneled hundreds of billions of dollars in additional lending to state-owned enterprises and government agencies to finance further investment projects.

Stock markets in China, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea were all down about half a percent in late afternoon trading, or about half the loss Thursday on Wall Street, as good news from China seemed to partially offset global worries about the so-called fiscal cliff in the United States and economic troubles in Europe.

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said Friday that industrial production had risen 9.6 percent in October from the same month a year earlier, compared with 9.2 percent in September and 8.9 percent in August. Retail sales were up 14.5 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with 14.2 percent in September, even though slower inflation at the consumer level was acting as a brake on the increase in retail sales.

Fixed-asset investment was up 20.7 percent for the first 10 months of this year, after having been up 20.5 percent for the first nine months of this year. China releases only year-to-date figures for fixed-asset investment, partly because of the difficulty in tracking when money is actually spent on big construction projects.

Consumer prices were up only 1.7 percent in October from a year ago, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in September. Western economists had expected inflation in China to stay steady in October instead of slowing.

Producer prices were down 2.8 percent in October from a year ago, a slightly faster pace than the 2.7 percent decrease that economists had expected but not as fast a decline as in September, when they were down 3.6 percent.

China has begun a once-a-decade leadership transition at its Party Congress, which began in Beijing on Thursday and will last through the middle of the coming week.

......

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/business/global/heavy-lending-creates-a-surge-in-chinese-economy.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/B/Bradsher,%20Keith?ref=keithbradsher&pagewanted=print

有自唔在 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

9 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　城市電訊和香港寬頻一直有個傳統，就是每年都會為中級至高級管理層舉辦一次海外活動；多年來，我們去過很多地方，很久以前去過澳洲黃金海岸和關島；近年也去過德國的黑森林露營、日本輕井澤滑雪，以及到柬埔寨的志願機構做義工。

 

　　今年，香港寬頻的同事去了美國的拉斯維加斯。

 

　　有同事在第一晚已經透過WhatsApp通知我，很多人已經喝醉了，很開心。收到這個信息，我心�有些茫然，說不上是不開心，但總有點酸溜溜的感覺。若非我當日決定賣掉電訊業務、重頭再來搞電視業務，若非我一直被免費電視牌照的漩渦捲住，我早已和這班出生入死的戰友在拉斯維加斯享受收成。

 

　　早幾天和香港某家互聯網公司的行政總裁午聚，得悉他將會轉工。那刻，我想問他為甚麼要自討苦吃，現在的公司生意已上軌道、收入穩定更加是行內大哥大，為甚麼要轉到一家小規模公司任職呢？廣告界亦有位翹楚，數月前亦離開全球知名的廣告及媒體公司，自己出外創業。

 

　　我們這批年過五十的中年人，是否特別喜歡接受挑戰呢？我們電視台也有個綜藝節目叫做《挑戰》，看到當中的精華片段，接受挑戰的藝人走過丘陵的峽谷、經歷九天八夜沒有水洗澡、走在火山灰上只能吃麵包和香腸的日子，為甚麼這班人要選擇一條難行的路呢？

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-08

Is Leung Chun-ying jinxed? I am beginning to think so. He became chief executive only four months ago but has been dogged by scandal after scandal. He has been hit by so many scandals that I have lost track. Every time his administration is struck by another political earthquake I wonder to myself how much longer he can remain as chief executive. Some critics of Leung say he won't last a full five-year term but I think that is wishful thinking. I believe C.Y. Leung will remain as chief executive for a full term unless he is hit by such a big scandal that he completely loses the trust of the people.

        T he latest scandal dogging Leung is accusations of illegal conduct by Executive Councillor Franklin Lam Fan-keung in the selling of two flats. The first scandal to dog Leung was the illegal structures found in his home on the Peak. There have been numerous other earthquakes in between. His first development secretary, Mak Chai-kwong, resigned after the ICAC arrested him for having cheated in claiming government housing allowance. Mak's successor Paul Chan Mo-po was dogged by a scandal involving illegally subdivided flats he and his wife owned. He was also photographed by the media driving after drinking beer. Hong Kong was hit on the October 1 national day by a tragic ferry collision, which killed 39 people. Before that, we were struck by a political earthquake involving national education.

        Have I forgotten any others? As I said, I have lost count. To lose count means to forget the number of times something has happened. It is similar to the expression "lose track". When a person is jinxed it means that person brings bad luck or is unlucky. When someone is dogged by scandals it means he is always being followed by scandals. The expression wishful thinking means believing that something that you want to happen will really happen even though it won't. For example, it is wishful thinking that C.Y. Leung can quickly make flats affordable for everyone. Do you think Leung is really jinxed or are some Hong Kong people not giving him a fair chance to govern?

        ＊　　　　　　　＊　　　　　　　＊

        梁振英是否不祥（jinxed）人？我也開始這樣相信了。他當了特首不過四個月，一宗宗醜聞纏身（dogged）。他所受的醜聞多得我也數不清（lose track）了。每一趟他的施政又被另一個政治風波打擊，我總會暗忖，他這個特首到底還可以做多久？有些批評梁的人認為，他不會完成五年任期，但我認為這只是他們的癡心妄想（wishful thinking）。我相信梁會做滿五年特首，除非有一單醜聞，大得令他完全失信於人。

        最新一宗纏繞（dogging）梁的醜聞，是有關行政會議成員林奮強違規賣出兩個單位的指控，而第一宗纏上（dog）梁的醜聞是他在山頂大宅的非法僭建，在這兩宗之間，還有無數的震盪。他的第一位發展局局長麥齊光，被廉署以瞞騙政府租金津貼罪名拘捕，其後辭職。麥的繼任人陳茂波，則被他和太太經營的非法劏房醜聞纏着（dogged）。他又被傳媒拍到酒後駕駛。而於十月一日國慶那天，則發生導致三十九人死亡的撞船慘劇，震驚全港。在那之前，別忘了還有國民教育的這個政治動盪。

        我有沒有數漏了哪一件？如我所說，我早已數不清楚（lose count）了。To lose count就是忘了事件發生的次數，與習語 "lose track" 有點類近。說一個人是jinxed即是說他很不幸或帶來厄運。說一個人dogged by scandals便是指他常常尾隨着種種醜聞。習語wishful thinking是指，相信事情會如你所期許的發生，即使事實不是這樣。例如，期望梁振英會迅速壓抑樓市，令人人負擔得起，這個想法根本就是癡人說夢（wishful thinking）。你又是否認為，梁確實不祥（jinxed），還是有些香港人根本沒有給他施政的公平機會？mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

甚麼更重要 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

8 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　上星期六，我們在青衣城做了一個商場show，介紹我們的電視部，包括製作理念及籌備情況等，也有約二十位藝員到場介紹我們的劇集，和現場觀眾進行遊戲互動。在場約有幾百位觀眾，氣氛熱鬧開心。

 

　　活動當中，我們播放一條長達七分半鐘、介紹公司和節目的影片；播映尾段，很多同事都被感動了，女司儀更未能控制自己情緒，表現略微失準。

 

　　為甚麼大家會感動、會流淚呢？因為大家都深深感受到這個團隊的同心，都感受到大家很努力地希望取得成功。

 

　　最近，有跟我共事十多年的同事問我，為甚麼我對電視業務的要求比以往做電訊時降低了。以往做電訊時，我會對同事破口大鬧，要求非常之高，事事要求完美，不容許絲毫差錯；現在做電視，我的態度完全轉變，能夠接受和理解那些我認為不是最好的事情。

 

　　我的解釋是，因為現在我需要的，不是一隻最可口的燒鵝，而是一個能夠燒出美味燒鵝的焗爐。我要的，不是一齣完美的劇集、完美的劇本、完美的演員、完美的拍攝或完美的試片；我要的，是要把現在的七百多名同事變為公司的核心，將來擴展至一千八百名同事時，大家都向同一方向發展。所以，這班人的凝聚和向心力，遠比短期的劇集質素更加重要。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

 

誰明白這世界？ / 維基解碼 by 王維基

7 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　怎樣才可以在家中做到4D電影的效果，令家中的椅子能隨劇情而郁動呢？

 

　　昨天提到我為一個比賽做評審，有同學建議我們做4D電視劇，聽到建議那刻，我突然想到家用的電動按摩椅。試想一下，若果那張按摩椅安裝了無線上網裝置接駁互聯網，當電視劇播放時，劇情會透過互聯網傳送控制信息到按摩椅，控制它的動作和搖晃。

　
　　雖然未能做到戲院內相同的效果，但也大概可以做到4D效果的感受。就算家中沒有大型按摩椅，也可以在腳部按摩器或者放在背部的按摩器裝上無線裝置，控制按摩和郁動程度。

 

　　其實，我並不是個具創意的人。我只是不停逼自己去想解決方案，嘗試接觸不同年齡、不同層面的人。有些人聽到家中4D影院，已經立刻覺得不可能；但當我在做評審的安靜環境下，面對那位二十歲小伙子勇敢提出建議，我就會努力地想，怎樣可以滿足他的要求。

 

　　那班小朋友在比賽中提出很多新的概念，雖然他們不一定能提出解決方案，但他們告訴我他們的世界是怎樣的，作為評審的大學教授和作為商業機構領導的我也未必清楚。所以，當很多人說香港沒有給年輕人機會的時候，我跟他們說台上的人可能擁有權力，但台下的年輕人才真正感受這世界正在發生甚麼改變。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

Chinglish by Michael Chugani

2012-11-06

Americans will go to the polls today. The expression “go to the polls” means to vote in an election. You can also say: American voters will cast their ballots today. This also means they will vote today. Hong Kong voters went to the polls (or cast their ballots) on September 9 to elect members of the Legislative Council. But they could not cast their ballots on March 25 to elect the chief executive because only 1,200 members of the Election Committee were allowed to vote. Hong Kong does not have universal suffrage for The Chief Executive election but Beijing has promised universal suffrage starting in 2017. The expression universal suffrage means the right of all adults to vote in an election.

        T he word cast has several meanings. To cast a stone means to throw a stone. The past tense is also cast. Many Hong Kong people wrongly say “casted”. In addition to voting for a president, Americans will also cast their ballots for members of the US Congress and for politicians in their own states. Many people think the president is directly elected by the people but the president is elected by an electoral college of 538 electors. A candidate must win at least 270 of the 538 votes to become president.

        The states share the 538 votes depending on how many members they have in the US Congress, which is determined by the size of their populations. California has the largest population and so has 55 members of Congress. This means it also has 55 electoral college votes. The candidate who wins the majority of votes cast by the people of a state will also get all the electoral college votes of that state. For example, if Barack Obama wins the majority of votes cast by the people of California he will get California's 55 electoral college votes. The east and west coast states usually support a Democrat candidate while states in the south and the middle of the country usually support a Republican. A few states, such as Ohio, are known as "swing" states. No one knows for sure if they will swing towards (support) Obama or Republican Mitt Romney.

        ***

        美國人今天會去投票（go to the polls）。習語 “go to the polls” 即是在選舉中投票，你也可以說成：美國選民今天會去cast their ballots。香港選民在剛過去的九月九日，就去了投票（went to the polls或cast their ballots）選立法會議員。但他們在三月二十五日那天，卻不能投票（cast their ballots）選特首，因為只有選舉委員會那一千二百人個成員才能投票。香港沒有特首普選（universal suffrage），但北京承諾二○一七年便會有普選（universal suffrage）。Universal suffrage意即所有成年人，在選舉中都有投票權。

        Cast這個字有多重意思，To cast a stone即投擲石頭。它的過去式也是cast，但許多香港人錯誤地說成 “casted”。除了選總統，美國人也可以投票選美國國會議員和自己州份的參政者。許多人以為總統是由人民直接選出，但其實是總統是由五百三十八個選舉人團選出。一個候選人必須在這五百三十八票中，贏得至少二百七十票才能當選總統。

        這五百三十八票是按州份於美國國會所有的議員數目攤分，議員數目則取決於州份的人口。加州有最多人口，所以在國會有五十五位議員，也即是說，它有五十五張選舉人票。候選人若贏得該州份的人所投（cast）的選舉人票的大多數，那他就能全得該州的所有選舉人票。例如，若奧巴馬取得加州選民所投（cast）選票的過半數，那麼他便可以全取加州的五十五張選舉人票。東岸和西岸的州通常會支持民主黨候選人，而南部和中部的州則通常會支持共和黨人。有些州，例如俄亥俄州，被認為是「游離」州（"swing" states）。沒有人可以確切肯定，他們到底會搖擺（swing）往奧巴馬，抑或共和黨人米特羅姆尼的一邊。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧

從林奮強事件看管治危機 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

6 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　行政會議成員林奮強的賣樓風波引爆，成為熱門話題。事緣政府近日整頓樓市，包括收取買家印花稅以及加重額外印花稅，而林奮強在新招生效前兩周內，連沽兩個半山單位，賺了一大筆。

 

　　雖然林奮強強調，事前不知有關措施，行會秘書也證實他沒有參與會議程序，如今各級政府官員及行政會議成員，也一致支持他賣樓無利益衝突，但憑常理推測，林奮強的背景有可能事前毫不知情嗎?

 

　　林奮強畢業於英國曼徹斯特大學經濟系，曾任地產分析員，精於分析地產市道，1998年已獲委任中央政策組兼任非全職顧問，2006年於瑞銀環球資產管理擔任董事總經理，2011年離開瑞銀，創辦非牟利政治研究組織「香港黃金五十」。

 

　　今年6月29日，林奮強獲梁振英委任為行政會議成員。眾所週知，行會是港府決策機構，其成員會視乎各自專業分工，以林奮強對樓市熟悉，他在行會被分派負責與房屋政策有關事宜，不足為奇。畢竟行會的集思會眾多，而政府打擊樓市措施已醞釀一段長時間，所謂「春江水暖鴨先知」，林奮強即使不知道具體調控，仍有機會洞悉政府意向，故很難相信他事前對政策懵然不知。

 

　　另一問題是，林奮強在加入行會前已信誓旦旦，表明任職期間不會買賣香港物業，避免妨礙政府工作，而如今竟有「偷步賣樓」之嫌，其誠信操守，自然惹起爭議。當年前財政司司長梁錦松因「偷步買車」要引咎辭職，如今林奮強事件所牽涉的金額更大，難怪輿論要求他辭職的呼聲愈來愈大。

 

　　在香港的管治架構，行政會議討論的事項，列為機密，而林奮強作為行會成員之一，更應謹言慎行，即使他對政府遏抑樓市措施，事前並不知情，他在這時段賣樓而不避嫌，其政治敏感度等於零。加上在此敏感時刻，他在電台節目竟會說漏了嘴，謂與地產代理議定單位「底價」，如代理以較高價售出，差額便成代理佣金。但此舉因沒有在臨時買賣合約寫明，即構成涉嫌違反《防上賄賂條例》，而他事後即改口說，有關佣金會捐作慈善基金。如此前言不對後語，啟人疑竇，即使不懷疑他想逃避指控，也會認為他怎有資格擔任政治要職？

 

　　因林奮強自招提供非法回佣之嫌，頓成廉政公署調查目標，如今他申請無限期休假行會，特首梁振英迅速接納，也許一來可讓林奮強起到「避風頭」作用，二來也不想廉署的調查波及政府的整體威信。

 

　　林奮強事件令人聯想到梁振英政府的管治危機。以林氏與地產界關係千絲萬縷，他出任行會成員是否適當已成問題。再看他創立的「黃金五十」，提醒香港人要用眼前的五年黃金期，影響香港未來五十年，雖是言過其實，但他表明信者得救，要觀眾舉手決志，十分像個佈道大使，推銷能手。也許他是商界奇才，但不是政治人才。

 

　　縱觀梁振英上台後，從麥齊光事件到陳茂波事件，以至吳克儉處理國民教育的方寸大亂，加上如今的林奮強風波，一波未平一波又起，會否癥結在於用人不當，還是目前的社會風氣喜歡窮追猛打，當官的一言一行要加倍小心﹖

 

家中的4D影院 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

6 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　近十年，花旗銀行和科大都會舉辦一個比賽，邀請來自全球12個國家、18間大學包括來自埃及、芬蘭、荷蘭、美、加、日本和新加坡的同學，就某家指定商業機構的個案和業務發展提出建議。過往被選中的機構包括香港國際機場和貨櫃碼頭，今年，就選中了我們這家仍未有牌，但正籌備開台的電視台。各組同學要在26小時內，就我們所遇到的困難，制定策略和解決方案。

 

　　每次做類似比賽的評判，都會考慮到只有26小時，這班還未接觸商業社會的大學生能想出甚麼呢？但是，出席完評審之後，才了解到現今科技讓他們迅速找到大量所需資料，我甚至覺得他們對我公司的熟悉程度，可能比某些同事還要深。

 

　　他們的提議，當然有可行的，也有不可行的。但對我來說，最大的得益是透過幾小時的評審過程，讓我靜下來思考應怎樣處理面對的困難。

 

　　有同學建議我們製作4D電視劇。我想，3D電視劇就可行，但4D要連椅子都可以隨劇情搖動，觀眾又不是在戲院內，怎可能在一個普通家庭做到呢？當時，那位同學啞口無言。我裝出一副很兇的嘴臉，那位同學非常害怕，以為我很生氣；其實，我在認真地想，怎能在家做到4D效果呢？終於讓我想到了，解決辦法留待明天揭曉。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

 

工作熱誠 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

5 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　前一個周末，我去東莞看其中一套劇集拍攝。由於我們的劇集都是實景拍攝，並非在錄影廠內取景，所以我們沒有控制室，監控拍攝鏡頭及收音。我們拍攝時，鏡頭及畫面等會跟著拍攝隊移動。

 

　　這齣劇的其中一場是在一個住宅單位的大廳內拍攝，於是我、導演和收音師都要擠在小小的房間內，透過屏幕和儀器去監察拍攝效果。漸漸，我留意到收音師在每一個鏡頭完成後，都會跑出去幫助其他同事，例如搬燈、代替演員站在即將拍攝的位置，讓燈光師打燈等。他是否需要這樣做呢？我沒有確實答案，只知道他其實可以選擇躲在房間內只做自己的工作，但他選擇了團隊工作。

 

　　日常工作中，或許會有很清楚的分工，各自有自己的工作和責任。但是，這些界定只包括了較主要的責任，而不是全部。就像一隊足球隊，就算你不是後衞，但當你看見敵方帶球上前，難道你不去攔截？

 

　　團隊精神不是光說的，而是要不計較地付出。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

 

Q. and A. on Forecasting Based on Voter Expectations - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-11-02

A new academic study concludes that poll questions about expectations  - which ask people whom they think will win - have historically been better guides to the outcome of presidential elections than traditional questions about people's preferences. From my article about the study, by David Rothschild and Justin Wolfers, and the reaction to it:

Most recently, Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination despite at various points trailing other candidates - Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Perry - in polls of Republican voters' preferences. Even when Mr. Romney was behind, Republicans typically told pollsters that they expected him to win the nomination .

In presidential races since 1952, the expectations question has pointed to the winner in 81 percent of states, based on data from the American National Election Studies. The question about voting intentions pointed to the winner in 69 percent.

Below is a lightly edited interview with Mr. Wolfers, conducted by e-mail, focusing on the implications of the study for current presidential polls.

Q.

In the article, I discussed only briefly the expectations polls about the 2012 race, and some of the Twitter feedback was eager for more. By my count, there have been five recent major polls asking people whom they expect to win - by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University, New York Times/CBS News, and the University of Connecticut. There is also sixth from Rand asking people the percentage chances they place on each candidate winning. How consistent are the polls?

A.

There's a striking consistency in how people are responding to these polls. The most recent data are from the Gallup poll conducted Oct. 27-28, and they found 54 percent of adults expect Obama to win, versus 34 percent for Romney. Around the same time (Oct. 25-28), there was a comparable New York Times/CBS poll in which 51 percent of likely voters expect Obama to win, versus 34 percent for Romney.

But these results aren't just stable across pollsters, they've also been quite stable over the past few weeks, even as the race appeared to tighten for a while. Politico and George Washington University ran a poll of likely voters on Oct. 22-25, finding 54 percent expect Obama to win, versus 36 percent for Romney. The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll of likely voters got a somewhat higher share not venturing an answer, with 47 percent expecting Obama to win versus 33 percent for Romney. Finally, the ABC/Washington Post poll of registered voters run Oct. 10-13 found 56 percent expect Obama to win, compared to 35 percent for Romney.

I'm rather surprised by the similarities here - across time, across pollsters, across how they word the question, and across different survey populations (likely voters, registered voters, or adults) - but I suspect that is part of the nature of the question. You just don't see the noise here that you see in the barrage of polls of voter intentions, which are extremely sensitive to all of these factors.

I always throw out the folks who don't have an opinion, and count the proportions as a share of only those who have an opinion. By this measure, the proportion who expect Obama to win is: 61 percent (Gallup), 60 percent (The New York Times), 60 percent (Politico), 59 percent (Hartford Courant), 62 percent (ABC). The corresponding proportions who expect Romney to win are: 39 percent, 40 percent, 40 percent, 41 percent and 38 percent. Taking an average across all these polls: 60.3 percent expect Obama to win. Or if you prefer that I focus only on the freshest two polls, 60.7 percent expect him to win.

Q.

The results do seem have tightened somewhat since the first debate, which Romney was widely seen to have won, right? Do the patterns - or lack of patterns - in the numbers help solve the issue of what most people are thinking of when they answer the expectation question: Private information (their friends' voting plans, yard signs in their neighborhood, etc.) or public information (media coverage, speeches, etc.)?

A.

The results of the polls of voter intentions seem to have tightened a bit since the first debate. There's an interesting school of thought in political science that basically says: voters are pretty predictable. But they don't think too hard about how they're going to vote until right before the election. So what happens is that public opinion through time just converges to where it "should" be. And viewed through this lens, the first debate was just an opportunity for people who really should always have been in Romney's camp to figure out that they're in Romney's camp.

So why did the expectations polls move less sharply than intentions polls? One possibility is that your expectations are explicitly forward-looking, and perhaps people saw the race tightening as they saw that some of the support for Obama was a bit soft. Let me put this another way: There are two problems with how we usually ask folks how they plan to vote. First, the question captures the state of public opinion today, while the expectations question effectively asks you where you think public opinion is going. And second, polls typically demand a yes or no answer, when the reality may be that we know that our support is pretty weak, and it may change, or we aren't even sure whether we'll turn up to the polls. The virtue of asking about expectations is that you can think about each of your friends, and think not just about who they're supporting today, but also whether they may change their minds in the future.

I worry that it sounds a bit like I haven't answered your question, but that's because I don't have a super-sharp answer. If I had to summarize, it would be: expectations questions allow you to think about how the dynamics of the race may change, and so they are less sensitive to that change when it happens.

Q.

Based on your research and the current polls, what does the expectations question suggest is the most likely outcome on Tuesday?

A.

If a majority expects Obama to win, then right there, it says that I'm forecasting an Obama victory.

But by how much? Here's where it gets tricky. The fact that 60 percent of people think that Obama is going to win doesn't mean that he's going to win 60 percent of the votes. And it doesn't mean that he's a 60 percent chance to win. Rather, it simply says that given the information they have, 60 percent of people believe that Obama is going to win. Can we use this to say anything about his likely winning margin?

Yes. I'll spare you the details of the calculation, but it says that if 60.3 percent of people expect Obama to beat Romney, then we can forecast that he'll win about 52.5 percent of the two-party vote. That would be a solid win, though not as impressive as his seven-point win in 2008.

The proportion who expect Obama to win right now looks awfully similar to the proportion who expected George W. Bush to win in a Gallup Poll at a similar point in 2004. Ultimately Bush won 51.2 percent of the two-party vote.

Right now, Nate Silver is predicting that Obama will win 50.5 percent of the popular vote, and Romney 48.6 percent. As a share of the two-party vote, this says he's forecasting Obama to win 51 percent of the vote. Now Silver's approach aggregates responses from hundreds of thousands of survey respondents, while I have far fewer, so his estimate still deserves a lot of respect. I don't want to overstate the confidence with which I'm stating my forecast. So let me put it this way: My approach says that it's likely that Obama will outperform the forecasts of poll-based analysts like Silver.

We'll find out soon enough. Thanks.

---

Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/forecasting-based-on-expectations-not-intentions/?pagewanted=print

逼真和認真 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

2 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　常強調我們的電視節目製作認真，要媲美日劇和美劇。那麼何謂「認真」呢？

 

　　最近，我們在內地拍攝劇集，取景地方是一個未入伙的豪宅樓盤。由於未正式入伙，那�的單位都沒有正常食水供應。有一場戲發生在冬天，男主角剛沖完熱水涼離開洗手間，拍攝這個鏡頭時，攝影機會有一至兩秒拍攝到洗手間內的沐浴間。為了令畫面更逼真，劇組要令內洗手間內的玻璃充滿水點和霞氣，問題是，那�既無食水供應又無熱水爐，怎樣可以做到那個效果呢？

 

　　結果他們決定自己燒水。但是，即使他們燒了兩煲水，始終霞氣不足，效果不夠真實，終於要把其他熱水壺的水都倒出來，最後，想要的效果做到了。但在場的演員及幕後人員超過三十人，卻苦等了超過三十分鐘。

 

　　這兩秒鐘的「煙幕」花了劇組數千元成本。要逼真，就要認真；要認真，就要真金白銀地付出。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk

 

中共十八大真的怕「死」嗎? / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

1 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　內地知名音樂人高曉松，1969年生於北京高級知識分子家庭，他於1988年考入清華大學電子工程系，後退學進入北京電影學院導演系。畢業後早期以電視編劇、音樂創作及製作人為主。他自1994年出版《校園民謠》到1996年的個人作品集《青春無悔》，令他聲名大噪，攬獲多項音樂大獎，並且時常擔任各大選秀比賽的評委。

 

　　最近高曉松在其網頁透露，當局對歌曲的審查空前嚴格，歌曲中不能出現有「死」字等不吉利字眼，他還透露一名歌手翻唱了《死了都要愛》一歌而遭停播，提醒同行選歌要「慎重」。此事即時引發網友熱議。網民紛紛提出改名建議，例如把「死了都要愛」改作「不活了都要愛」、「掛了都要愛」或「犧牲了都要愛」等。

 

　　其實「生、老、病、死」，是每個人必經之路。可是人從年幼開始，很多便對死亡產生恐懼，而中國人對「死」字有所忌諱，古已有之。漢語對人的死亡描述的詞彙極其豐富，據研究不同的說法共有兩百多種。古人對不同身份的「死」，有不同稱呼。例如天子死叫「駕崩」；諸侯死叫「薨」；大夫死叫「卒」；士死叫「不祿」；庶人之死才稱「死」。

 

　　另外，和尚之死叫圓寂、涅槃或坐化﹔道士之死叫羽化或登仙﹔中國穆斯林稱死為歸真﹔若是美人之死則雅稱為「香銷玉殞」或「天妒紅顏」﹔民間也常將死亡改稱歸天、棄世、仙逝、仙遊、逝世、升天、作古等。如今的共產黨人，大可對死稱為「見馬克思」﹔而喜講中國文化的，則可說是「見老祖宗去了」。

 

　　由於時代變遷，中國人已經沒以前般保守，對這個「死」字不那麼敏感。事實上，「死」字許多時也只是代表非常、極其等意思，像死硬派、臭死了、愛死了、辣死了、酸死了、酷死了等，說的人沒有忌諱，聽的人也不以為意。而近期在北京音樂圈內盛傳帶「死」字的歌不能在電台和電視台播出，不見得真有其事，因為上海、湖南等地的電視台和電台綜藝節目單位都表示未接到相關通知。至於高曉松拿此事在其網頁炒作，可能是譁眾取寵而已。

 

　　倒是網民已將此事與中共十八大拉上關係，指「十八大到底想幹甚麼？連文革也沒有在九大召開時禁止歌曲帶有死字，八個樣板戲中都有死字，難道十八大想要刷新文革新紀錄？」﹔又稱「中南海到了連歌曲中的死字都害怕的地步，可見是何等虛弱。」

 

　　人生自古誰無死，毛澤東也說，「一不怕死，二不怕苦」，對「死」忌諱或害怕就躲得了嗎？不忌諱或不害怕就一定會比較快會遇上死嗎﹖從心理學上看，怕「死」在情緒上是一種怕輸心理，而反觀在11月8日在北京召開的十八大，會有很多人事調動，有人怕「死」可能就是怕被迫下台。

 

　　過去的黨代表大會，到了召開前夕，早已有了確切消息。今次十八大則不同，流傳著不同的「名單」，好的看法是代表威權主義時代已結束﹔壞的看法是仍存有權力鬥爭的暗湧。畢竟內地政治是黑箱作業，大家只能隔箱子瞎猜，愈黑愈猜。當十八大結束了，便知誰人怕「死」!

 

前線的信任 / 維基解碼 by 王維基

1 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

　　有很多人問我，為甚麼常常要去探班，是否去監工呢？一般來說，我都會客氣地表示，自己是到場學習學習。那真正的目的又是甚麼呢？

 

　　真正的目的是，藉著探班和最前線的員工建立關係。

 

　　當我決定踏入電視圈時，其中一個目標就是要改變電視圈內，幾十年來的行規和做事方式。當我們要改變的時候，或許可以用老闆的強權去逼他們改變，但我選擇另一條路，要令到前線同事明白改變對行業是好的。但以我一個在電視圈資歷尚淺的人，如何建立同事對你的信任呢？

 

　　因此，一有時間，無論是夜晚、周末和假期，我都會去落場探班，親身經歷在他們身上發生的事。例如，以往他們使用變焦鏡拍攝，現在我們用的是定焦鏡，拍攝時需要用上七、八支鏡頭，換鏡頭有甚麼工序、為甚麼需要額外人手和時間等，如果不親身觀察，你根本不會明白當中過程。

 

　　有時候我們會說：「我很明白你現在的情況。」但說這話時，別人心�又是否認同你真的明白他呢？甚麼叫做明白？我相信「明白」是種感受，就是你有沒有感受到別人所感受到的。要做到有同一感受，就是要和別人一起生活、一起捱。

　　在這場仗上，最大的風險並不是甚麼慣性收視或能否找到男女主角，而是我能否得到前線同事的信任。

 

轉載自晴報http://skypost.hk