2013年2月11日 星期一

Price for a New Hip? Many Hospitals Are Stumped - NYTimes.com by Elizabeth Rosenthal

2013-02-11

Jaime Rosenthal, a senior at Washington University in St. Louis, called more than 100 hospitals in every state last summer, seeking prices for a hip replacement for a 62-year-old grandmother who was uninsured but had the means to pay herself.

The quotes she received might surprise even hardened health care economists: only about half of the hospitals, including top-ranked orthopedic centers and community hospitals, could provide any sort of price estimate, despite repeated calls. Those that could gave quotes that varied by a factor of more than 10, from $11,100 to $125,798.

Ms. Rosenthal's grandmother was fictitious, created for a summer research project on health care costs. But the findings, which form the basis of a paper released on Monday by JAMA Internal Medicine, are likely to fan the debate on the unsustainable growth of American health care costs and an opaque medical system in which prices are often hidden from consumers.

"Transparency is all the rage these days in government and business, but there has been little push for pricing transparency in health care, and there's virtually no information," said Dr. Peter Cram, an associate professor of internal medicine at the University of Iowa, who wrote the paper with Ms. Rosenthal. He added: "I can get the price for a car, for a can of oil, for a gallon of milk. But health care? That's not so easy."

President Obama's Affordable Care Act focused primarily on providing insurance to Americans who did not have it. But the high price of care remains an elephant in the room. Although many experts have said that Americans must become more discerning consumers to help rein in costs, the study illustrates how hard that can be.

"We've been trying to help patients get good value, but it is really hard to get price commitments from hospitals - we see this all the time," said Jeff Rice, the chief executive of Healthcare Blue Book, a company that collects data on medical procedures, doctors visits and tests. "And even if they say $20,000, it often turns out $40,000 or 60,000."

There are many caveats to the study. Most patients - or insurers - never pay the full sticker price of surgery, because insurance companies bargain with hospitals and doctors for discounted rates. When Ms. Rosenthal balked at initial high estimates, some hospitals produced lower rates for a person without insurance.

But in other ways the telephone quotations underestimated prices, because they did not include the fees for outpatient rehabilitation, for example.

In an accompanying commentary, Andrew Steinmetz and Ezekiel J. Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania acknowledged that there was "no justification" for the inability to provide estimates or for the wide range of prices. But they said that more rigorous data on quality - like infection rates and unexpected deaths - were required to know when high prices were worth it.

"Without quality data to accompany price data, physicians, consumers and other health care decision makers have no idea if a lower price represents shoddy quality of if it constitutes good value," they wrote.

But, broadly, researchers emphasized that studies had found little consistent correlation between higher prices and better quality in American health care. Dr. Cram said there was no data that "Mercedes" hip implants were better than cheaper options, for example.

Jamie Court, the president of the California-based Consumer Watchdog, said: "If one hospital can put in a hip for $12,000, then every hospital should be able to do it. When there's 100 percent variation in sticker price, then there is no real price. It's about profit."

Dr. Cram said the study did contain some good news: some of the country's top-ranked hospitals came up with "bargain basement prices" in response to repeated calls. "If you're a good consumer and shop around, you can get a good price - you don't have to pay $120,000 for a Honda," he said.

But that shopping can be arduous in a market not set up to respond to consumers. To get a total price, Ms. Rosenthal often had to call the hospital to get its estimate for on-site care, and a separate quote from doctors. And many were simply perplexed when she asked for a price upfront, Ms. Rosenthal said, adding, "The people who answered didn't know what to do with the question."

......

Source: http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/price-for-a-new-hip-many-hospitals-are-stumped/?ref=elisabethrosenthal&pagewanted=print

匯率紛爭不斷 歐債憂慮又起 by 陶冬

2013-02-11

  在動盪中,風險資產繼續前行。上周初,歐債危機陰霾重臨,西班牙、義大利的政局出現了不確定的跡象,兩國國債利率抽升,歐元貶值,全球股市動盪。星期三歐洲央行主席德拉吉在例會後提及增長風險,市場擔心更甚,風險資產再跌。但是接下來美國經濟數據理想,中國進口需求遠強過預期,在石油和大宗商品的帶領下,風險資產價格止跌反升,美國S&P500站上五年新高,債市亦有上升,美元回軟,商品上揚,黃金走疲。

 

  歐洲擔憂再次浮起,實非意外。歐洲央行的流動性注入,的確穩定住銀行的流動性危機,再由銀行購買本國國債,拖低發債成本,紓緩了歐債危機的短期壓力。但是歐洲危機的核心,是債務的結構性入不敷出和經濟競爭力的消減,這些無法靠貨幣政策來解決。但是歐洲領袖們作出結構性改革的動力,隨著市場和匯率的企穩而減弱。筆者看來,由於早前歐洲央行狂發信貸,歐洲危機在流動性層面暫時問題不大,令沽空勢力收手,金融資產價格回穩。但是如果結構性改革無法展開,危機重燃只是時間的問題。今年2-4月是義大利、西班牙國債續期的高峰期,還有義大利大選,當為歐債問題今年第一個高危期。下半年法國的主權信用評級可能被下調,帶來歐洲的第二個高危期。

 

  近期歐元強勢,出乎不少人的意料。歐元走強,美元走弱,更與兩大經濟體的經濟基本面走向背道而馳。首先目前歐元強勢中,最重要的是歐元沽空盤在兩個月內幾乎完全消失,這使歐元匯率直線上升,愈升愈有。其次,由於銀行流動性和國債發行成本的改善,歐元區的金融防線有所修復,令其估值低殘的資產價格得以反彈。不過強歐元已經分化了歐洲兩大盟主。法國經濟外強中乾,增長、就業與稅收狀況全面惡化,它迫切需要弱歐元來帶動出口。德國經濟增長強勁,南歐的資金外逃令德國流動性過分充裕,失業率為兩德統一以來最低,消費信心強勁,通貨膨脹壓力顯現。德國因此反對干預匯率,認同強歐元趨勢,令夾在中間的歐洲央行左右為難。德法在又一個領域出現意見上的南轅北轍。

 

  本周關注點聚焦在周末於莫斯科召開的二十國集團(G20)財長及央行行長會議,圍繞匯率的爭論與交鋒尤其令人矚目,會議前後匯率也可能有較大的波動。美國一月的零售和二月的消費信心估計都強過預期,不過工業生產在一月份回落。在歐洲,英格蘭銀行發佈通脹中期展望,預計通脹壓力略高。同日公佈的歐元區GDP增長預計也是收縮0.5%。在亞太區,周四日本第四季度GDP料收縮0.5%;韓國央行可能降息25基點。

 

  (本欄主要內容每周一9:30am會在央視2台交易時間中出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法,並非任何投資勸誘或建議)

 

全球石油軍事大揭秘158:零點出擊 by 鄺社源

2013-02-11

  馬蘇德希望美國支持他與塔利班作戰,並要求三點,一是在華盛頓開設大使館;二是美國提供食物藥物、人道救援;三是財政上的支持,但這只是如意算盤而已,因為美國認為馬蘇德的北方聯盟是靠種植鴉片毒品為生,而且支持馬蘇德會令巴基斯坦反感,故此一直未有表態,只是間中供應軍火敷衍了事。

 

  至2001年春天,中情局各路線人收到的情報,都顯示阿爾蓋達和拉登會有大動作,而所有重要人物都似乎四出活動,拉登更通過衛星電視播放對他的採訪,聲稱美國將會受到襲擊,但中情局卻查不出確切的受襲目標,以及何時何地會發生。其實911恐襲之前就有不少預兆,白宮反恐專家理查德.克拉克(Richard Clarke)就覺得事態不尋常,並通知國防部長拉姆斯菲爾德美國將會有突襲,但拉姆斯菲爾德則謂此事不可足信,而輕視了這個線報,再者FBI及國安局在這個事情上又不通氣,讓拉登有機可乘。

 

  美國曾派特使到阿富汗警告塔利班,假若發生任何事故,塔利班將難咎其詞。塔利班則裝作不知情,當時小布殊已上任為美國總統,他的牛仔作風與克林頓的懷柔不決截然不同,他要求中情局重新審閱馬蘇德的提議。至2001年6月, 中情局收到線報,指拉登等人已開始預備偷襲。至7月10日,阿富汗來的情報更確認襲擊是百分之百會發生,但美國方面依然不知襲擊計劃的詳情。

 

  2001年8月23日,以色列摩薩德特工就拿到阿爾蓋達死士共19人的名單,並提供給中情局,但美國卻想不到襲擊會來得那麼迅速和兇狠。911發生前幾天,中情局就截聽到拉登打電話回敘利亞給他的「五太」,叫她立即動身返回阿富汗,在911前48小時,又截聽到兩句暗語,一是「遊戲即將開始」;二是「明天就是零點出擊」。但由於國安局人手短缺,未能即時傳譯解碼,至911後一天才往上報,但已經太遲。

 

  與此同時,15個死士已陸續進入美國,加上月前進入的4名飛行訓練學員, 一共19人已經就位,哈立德亦通過電匯方式匯來了最後的行動經費,給這19人買不同航班的頭等機位之用,一切就緒後,只等待拉登的「最高指示」!

 

  在此之前,在2001年8月,兩個阿拉伯的記者由摩洛哥到達巴基斯坦,然後前往阿富汗的喀布爾,他們持比利時護照,能操流利英語和法語,他們是代表摩洛哥一家著名的電視台前來向馬蘇德做專訪,他們在喀布爾見了著名的前抗蘇戰士西亞(Sayyaf)長老,因為他認識馬蘇德並知道他的下落,而西亞在當地德高望重,部族甚至馬蘇德的北方聯盟都對他非常敬重。經他介紹,馬蘇德派手下把兩位記者用蘇制米格Mi-25直升機,從喀布爾運載至馬蘇德的總部,在塔吉斯坦邊界的一個小鎮巴哈丁(Bahaddin),把他們安置在村上,等候馬蘇德有時間才安排他們作採訪,而不知道死神已找上門來!

  (未完待續)

今朝有粩今朝吃 by 李碧華

中國各地過年小吃都有特色。如果在台灣,除了糕點餅酥脆物之外,有一古早經典食品很吸引,春節前必出現,大型百貨公司設臨時專櫃,以手工現做最新鮮可口。


那是字典中查不到的「粩」。我見台灣人唸「米老」,還以為拆開二字,原來指的是「米粩」,除此還有蔴粩、花生粩……新研發的紫米粩、杏仁粩、海苔粩,仍以百年老店最原始的蔴粩受歡迎。不但當零咀小吃,還是百搭的祭祀供品,拜天公、迎媽祖、觀音誕、中元節、中秋節、過大年……都有它。


不知此名之由來。不過賣相奇特,就像一條條大便。當然是美味的大便了。


單從「粩」字看以為是米製點心,其實主要原料是「狗蹄芋」(一種小芋頭)磨成粉,和已蒸熟的糯米團拌勻、壓平、切小片、烘乾製成粩片(也稱果乾),先倒入鍋溫油炸過,再以二百多度的熱油翻炸,便會迅速像吹氣球般膨脹十來倍,呈金黃色,放涼後裹上麥芽糖和花生、米花或芝蔴。香甜鬆脆,咬下去中間蜂窩狀,口感很好,不會太膩,不過易扁易碎──雖喚「粩」,但不宜久放,也不許變老。正好今朝有粩今朝吃。

笑說蛇年 by 陶傑

蛇年是比較奇怪的生肖年。


中文一個「蛇」字,不像「牛」、「羊」之方正,也不如一個「馬」字之生氣勃勃,「蛇」字的象形,看上去已經是一條昂首吐信的軟體爬蟲,所以大陸人為子女配名,有叫牛牛的,有叫羊羊的,有叫小二狗子的,當然也有叫瓜瓜、豆豆、點點的,就是沒有叫蛇蛇的,可知其問題所在。


「蛇」對女人充滿歧視:「水蛇腰」、「蛇蠍美人」、「青竹蛇兒口,黃蜂尾後針,兩者皆不毒,最毒婦人心」,嚇死人了。中國的民間小說,最多這類稱呼,要不要「投訴」呢?中文書店裏全是這類蛇蠍呀女人什麼的「文化」作品,都撤下架來,燒掉了,好不好?


中國「知識份子」,提起一個「蛇」字,也不堪回首。一九五七年,中國人的偉大領袖毛澤東「引蛇出洞」,叫「知識份子」大鳴大放,說明「言者無罪,聞者足誡」,這伙有文化的笨蛋信以為真,從此紛紛被打為「敵對勢力」,成為後來「文革」的伏筆。


本來,這些事已經定了性,反右捉蛇,是血淚史,文革都稱為「十年浩劫」,但是這兩個月來有了新的說法:這頭三十年,是一種「探索」、「反右」和「文革」並非與後來的「改革開放」割裂而「對立」、「不能互相否定」,所以,中國的文人,到了蛇年,快快快,趕快再統一你們的思想,重新歸隊,學習一下「反右」和「文革」的探索精神。


我們香港人,也要學習此一辯證:香港一百五十年的所謂「殖民統治」,也不能跟現在的董梁時代──本來當中還有曾蔭權,但這個名字,看看氣候,可以抹掉了──互相割裂、互相否定,英國人為中國失敗的歷史,提供了寶貴的探索,讓你今天還跨境過來買奶粉,找水貨客,做「奶蛇」,或爭相送去英國的寄宿學校,年紀小小,就做了教育人蛇。