2013年2月26日 星期二

頭條日報 頭條網 - FS is lousy at making budget predictions. by Michael Chugani

2013-02-26

Source: http://news.hkheadline.com/dailynews/headline_news_detail_columnist.asp?id=227892§ion_name=wtt&kw=126


Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will unveil (reveal, make public) his budget tomorrow. Once again, he has got his figures wrong. He had predicted (forecast, guessed) a budget deficit of about $3 billion. You have a deficit if you spend more than your income. For example, if the government gets $10 billion from land sales, taxes and so on but spends $13 billion on public housing, health care and so on, it will have a deficit of $3 billion. But instead of a $3 billion deficit, many accountancy firms now say the government will have a surplus of about $60 billion or even more. You have a surplus if you spend less than your income. For example, if the government gets $100 billion but spends only $40 billion, it will have a surplus of $60 billion.

        T his is not the first time the financial secretary predicted a deficit but had a surplus instead. He has done it many times before. That means he is lousy at making budget predictions (noun). His salary is over $300,000 a month. I think he should use part of his salary to hire a feng shui master. I am sure a feng shui master will be better at making budget predictions than John Tsang Chun-wah. He is a stingy (miserly) and gutless (no guts, weak) financial secretary who protects himself by always predicting (verb) a deficit so he won't have to spend too much money.

        But Hong Kong people suffer every time he wrongly predicts a deficit instead of a surplus. This is because when he predicts a deficit he will spend less money on things such as education, health care, and social welfare for needy people. If his prediction had been accurate, he could have spent the $60 billion surplus on public housing so people wouldn't have to wait three years or more for a flat. He should either be fired or have his pay cut to the minimum wage of about $6,000 a month if he makes a wrong prediction again.

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        財政司司長曾俊華將於明天披露(unveil)他的財政預算案。他又再一次算錯數了。他曾經預計(predicted)會有大約三十億赤字(deficit)。Deficit在你入不敷支時出現。舉例,若然政府從賣地和稅收等取得一百億,但在公屋、醫療等方面花了一百三十億,那就會有三十億赤字(deficit)。但現在有許多會計師行聲稱政府會有大概六百億或更多的盈餘(surplus),而不是三十億赤字(deficit)。Surplus就是你支出少於收入,例如,若政府收了一千億但只用了四百億,那就有六百億盈餘(surplus)。

        財政司司長預計有赤字(deficit),最後卻得出盈餘(surplus),已非首次,屢見不鮮。這就證明他在財政預測(predictions,名詞)方面簡直糟透了。他的月薪超過三十萬。我認為他應該用部份收入去請個風水師。我肯定一位風水師傅也比曾俊華懂得做財政預測(predictions)。他是一個吝嗇(stingy)又膽小(gutless)的財政司司長,總是以預測(predicting,動詞)赤字(deficit)來保障自己,以免花費太多。

        然而,香港人卻因為他每一次預算(predicts)赤字(deficit)而非盈餘(surplus)而受苦連連。全因他預計(predicts)有赤字(deficit),他就會在教育、醫療、給有需要人士的社會福利等方面減少支出。若他的預測(prediction)準確,他本就可以將那六百億盈餘(surplus)用在公營房屋上,好讓人們不用等上樓等個三年或以上。要是他又預測(prediction)錯誤,他好應被炒,或將月薪減至最低工資約六千大元。mickchug@gmail.com

        中譯:七刻

        Michael Chugani 褚簡寧