T he expression has a very simple meaning. In the song, a gambler on a train tells another passenger, who looked very sad, that he'll give the sad passenger some advice in exchange for the sad passenger's remaining last mouthful of whisky. After the gambler drinks the whisky and smokes a cigarette, he tells the sad passenger: "You've got to know when to hold 'em (them) and when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away, know when to run." In the card game of poker, smart gamblers know when to fold and when to hold. To fold in poker means to give up when your cards are so bad you know you cannot win. To hold means to keep on playing.
Do the people taking part in the Occupy protest know when to fold them and when to hold them? Do they know when to keep on playing and when to give up? Recent public opinion polls show over 70 percent of Hong Kong people feel the Occupy protesters should give up their protest because they have already played long enough. When so many people want the protests to end, it means the Occupy protesters are holding bad cards. People who hold bad cards will lose in the end. Do the Occupy protesters know when to walk away, when to run? Is it time for them to fold? Smart gamblers don't play with lousy cards. They know when to fold and wait for new cards.
你可知道 when to hold them and when to fold them？我相信香港許多人也沒聽過這個習語。這個習語因着美國歌手肯尼羅傑斯一首名為《賭徒》的歌而為人所共知。這首歌紅得讓他在1980年拿下格林美獎。我最近上網收聽一個美國電台時聽到這首歌。歌詞中"know when to hold them and when to fold them"令我想起雨傘運動。未知參與佔中的年輕人，又是否know when to hold them and when to fold them？
這個習語的意思很簡單。在那首歌裏，火車上的一位賭徒跟另一位面容憂傷的乘客說，他會給予這位傷心乘客一點忠告，以換取他那一口僅餘的威士忌。當賭徒喝過威士忌、抽過煙後，他跟那位傷心的乘客說：「你得知道何時叫牌，何時棄牌（know when to hold 'em (them) and when to fold 'em）。何時走開，何時速逃。」在撲克牌遊戲中，精明的賭徒會知道甚麼時候棄牌（fold）和甚麼時候叫牌（hold）。在撲克牌中fold就是當你的牌很爛，你知道自己沒有勝算時棄牌。 To hold就是繼續玩下去。
那麼，參與佔中的人，又是否知道該何時棄牌，又何時叫牌（know when to fold them and when to hold them）？他們是否知道，甚麼時候應繼續玩下去，甚麼時候該放棄？最近一個民意調查顯示，超過七成香港人認為佔領示威者應放棄示威，因為他們已經做得夠久了。當有那麼多的人希望示威結束時，也即是說，佔領示威者手上正持着（holding）一副爛牌。手執（hold）爛牌的人最終都會輸掉。佔領示威者又是否知道何時走開，何時速逃？這是他們該棄牌（fold）的時候嗎？精明的賭徒不會玩糟透的牌。他們知道該甚麼時候棄牌（fold），等待下一局的新牌再來。
mickchug@gmail.com
中譯:七刻
Michael Chugani 褚簡寧
Source: http://news.stheadline.com/dailynews/headline_news_detail_columnist.asp?id=310989§ion_name=wtt&kw=126