2012年6月28日 星期四

梁振英僭建風波的玄機 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

28 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

  香港候任特首梁振英被揭發其山頂大宅有六處地方屬僭建,猶如一枚炸彈,引起輿論譁然。如果這件事在特首選舉時報導出來,梁振英會否當選,很成疑問。

 

  當時唐英年的落選,在頗大程度上,是被發現其家居地下建有千呎地庫,傳媒形容為「地下行宮」。當日梁振英也加入「剿唐」行列,理直氣壯地指唐的「僭建」是誠信出現問題,如今竟然是他與唐英年同坐「僭建船」,可謂啼笑皆非,演出了一幕香港前所未有的特首荒誕劇。


  梁振英未正式上任特首已鬧出了難以容忍的天大笑話,論者的分析不出下列四點。

  其一是如梁所說,屬無心之失。但此一說法難以服人。雖然梁解釋他是產業測量師不是建築測量師,對僭建條例不熟悉,然而香港一般市民,在天台或平台花園搭建一個太陽篷也屬違規,這幾乎已成常識,何況是梁的有蓋玻璃屋﹖梁已居住香港多年,理論上不會不知道。

 

  其二是梁所承認,是他的嚴重疏忽。如前所述,「疏忽」云云,難以令人接受,而且即使是「疏忽」,因屬「嚴重」,在未上任前已犯此「嚴重」錯失,那麼港人更有理由懷疑他的管治能力,能否勝任特首此一職位﹖

 

  其三是梁的誠信問題。梁的誠信似乎比唐更有問題,關鍵不在其「僭建」。梁的「僭建」,是在原有的建築圖則再加建﹔而唐的「地下行宮」,其規模之大,很可能不是加建,而是在最初建築時違建,屬兩個不同圖則,所以才需要廉署介入調查。但梁令人失望的是,自己其身不正仍去指摘對方不是,大有欺瞞港人之嫌。而且作為特首而欠誠信,如何得到港人擁戴﹖

 

  其四是梁的政治敏感度不足,而此點才是耐人尋味之處。論政治敏感度,豈獨梁振英一人為然﹖他已曾多次在其大宅的玻璃屋接待傳媒及其智囊團,怎麼沒有人一早覺察玻璃屋屬僭建﹖再說,反對梁振英的人,同屬感覺遲鈍,否則僭建問題愈早指出,特首選舉便有變數。

 

  除了上述的四點分析,僭建風波是否還另有玄機,使梁振英始料不及﹖事實上,香港屋宇的僭建問題,多如牛毛,名義上是犯法,當局是管無可管,許多時是去信警告了事。梁及其智囊,或以為其「僭建」是小兒科,不以為意,甚至深信特首選舉若有「中聯辦」的支持,等於有中央撐腰,則做特首應是穩坐釣魚船。

 

  梁振英的僭建風波在此時此候提出,也未必是偶然的。所謂「成也蕭何,敗也蕭何」,當初向傳媒舉報唐英年有「地下行宮」,到如今梁振英的僭建,都屬同一幫人的所為。支持梁的「中聯辦」,如今也遇到對手,因為內地自薄熙來、陳光誠、李旺陽等事件一波接一波而來,左右兩派的角力日趨激烈,也波及香港,而城門失火,殃及池魚,梁振英很可能成為另一個政治犠牲品。

 

  當然,梁振英是否得到港人擁護,其認受性仍是最重要的。如今已有人向港人供應可去除梁的燃燒彈,且看港人會如何運用。

 

  七月一日的回歸日有多少人上街遊行倒梁,是一個重要訊號,或者當日狂風雷暴,而影響上街人數,梁會喘一口氣。

 

 

2012年6月21日 星期四

A Darkening Jobs Picture - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-06-21

The jobs picture is darkening. The latest batch of economic data has been fairly weak, especially surveys from the manufacturing sector. As a result, The Times's weekly jobs tracker, based on forecasts from Moody's Analytics, now shows a projected employment gain of only 125,000 in June, down from a projection of 150,000 last week.

Economists at Moody's write:

June is shaping up as another difficult month for the U.S. job market, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve will have to do more, potentially as soon as August. ...

Manufacturing has been the backbone of the recovery, but industry is showing signs of fatigue; factory output has declined in two of the past three months. Manufacturers' confidence appears to have been rattled, as the first two regional manufacturing surveys for June were weak, including the employment details. ...

Initial jobless claims failed to drop appreciably in the week ending June 16, leaving them up 15,000 between the May and June payroll survey weeks. The four-week moving average of new filings is at its highest level this year. Still, initial claims haven't spiked, which signals that businesses are retrenching.

With Moody's also downgrading its projections for July and August, the latest outlook revises the projected average monthly job growth for the six-month period before the presidential election to 149,000, from last week's 157,000. That is still squarely in the range historically associated with a close electoral outcome, but not an encouraging direction for the incumbent.



Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/a-darkening-jobs-picture/?pagewanted=print

發給神舟九號的電郵  / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

21 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

 神舟九號飛船,掀開中國航天史突破性一章。中國計劃在2020年建成自己的太空家園,屆時中國的空間站估計在世上先拔頭籌。

 

  這次神九有多項前所未有。其一,是首次實施神九與天宮一號的載人空間交會對接﹔其二,是首次搭載活體蝴蝶(卵和蛹)升空。破蛹成蝶和蝴蝶升空,代表著夢想的實現與飛躍﹔其三,航天員是兩男一女的飛行組,男的是景海鵬和劉旺,女的是劉洋,而神女劉洋,則可提供女性上太空的生理和心理的實驗數據﹔其四,是實現地面與飛船進行物資往返運輸,以及用電郵形式從地面向航天員傳送信息,內容包括音頻、視頻和文本文檔等數據格式。

 

  關於中國航天科技的發展,早已從1960年開始,在新疆的戈壁沙漠邊沿建設火箭試驗基地,開始研製人造衛星和運載火箭﹔到1970年,利用長征一型火箭,成功發射第一個人造衛星﹔在1980年,已有能力回收人造衛星﹔在1999年及2001年分別發射「神舟號」及「神舟二號」無人飛船﹔在 2002年3 月發射「神舟三號」無人飛船,但裝有人體代謝模擬裝置,也進行意外時的逃逸試驗﹔該年12月又發射神舟四號,在其返回艙內增加兩個座椅,坐著兩個模擬航天員,他們的工作、生活和醫護物品一應俱全,飛船且在太空展開太陽能帆板、調姿等動作。

 

  2003、2005年,神舟五號、六號載人飛船分別發射,並安全返回地球。神五升空,楊利偉整套重10公斤的宇航服沒有離身,他只在艙內進行簡單的科學實驗。神六在返回艙之外加了軌道艙,並首次在軌道艙展開微重力等多項實驗。2008年,神舟七號三名航天員有兩人首次出艙活動,並在艙內把宇航服換成連身操作服,除出艙外,還進行空間材料科學實驗。而神舟八號則於去年11月發射升空,並開展中德合作空間生命科學實驗。

 

  中國如今已是世界上繼美、俄之後,擁有載人航天技術的國家之一。這些科技不一定是最新的,卻是「懂得如何做的竅門」(know -how),並且累積其中的關鍵技術。作為中國人,此舉不但有助提升中國的國際聲望,也令相關科技,如生命及生物科技的研發水平全線提升。此外,航天科技也帶來經濟效益,令中國對研發過程的生產技術,擁有知識產權。

 

  作為中國人,理應對中國的航天科技引以為榮。如今航天員所收到的電郵,主要包括通過地面專用的平台傳送指導性視頻、飛行計劃、家屬來信以及收取自己喜歡的電影、音樂等。不過很多網民已急不及待,私下發出電郵,不理會航天員是否收到,而是借機批評當局,重視發展航天科技,神九光是燃油就燒掉三十多億人民幣,相對下較忽視老百姓面對的社會問題、民生問題。眼看內地的房價和物價標升、大學生就業困難、福利保障不足、食品安全失效、貪污腐敗盛行、貧富差距擴闊,航天科技先進又有何用﹖

 

  難怪有網民在慨嘆,今日中國是「飛船上天,道德探底」。這種映照固然令人痛心,但平情而論,航天科技與民生難道不可以兩者兼顧,而要勢成水火嗎﹖

 

2012年6月14日 星期四

Jobs Forecast Is Steady, but Stay Tuned - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-06-14

The economic data of the past week has been close enough to expectations that Moody's Analytics, a research firm, has not changed its forecast for job growth in coming months. As it did last week, the firm forecasts an average of 157,000 net new jobs a month in the six months leading up to Election Day. But the data has been weak enough to make the Moody's economists nervous.

They write:

Our forecast for June employment, which currently calls for a net 150,000 payroll increase and an 8.1% unemployment rate, may be too upbeat and will need to be revised unless next week's data on unemployment insurance claims and readings from upcoming business surveys improve.

This post is part of Economix's weekly look at the job market in the run-up to the presidential election. Previous posts have more detail on the relationship between job growth and election outcomes. Average growth between 100,000 and 175,000 in the months leading up to the election would tend to suggest a close race.



Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/14/jobs-forecast-is-steady-but-stay-tuned/?pagewanted=print

李旺陽之死錯綜複雜 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

14 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

  八九民運人士李旺陽,經歷了二十多年牢獄生涯後,於2012年六四事件23周年紀念日翌日傳出死訊,據說是自殺,但很多人都質疑這是「他殺」,因而引起很大爭議。有兩三萬香港市民,於周日(6月10日)上街遊行至中聯辦,要求中央調查李旺陽的死因。

 

  1950年出生的李旺陽,1989年因積極參與湖南邵陽的民運活動,六四鎮壓後被當局以顛覆國家政權罪被判監禁23年,直至2011年5 月才被釋放。李旺陽出獄後身體非常虛弱,雙目失明,雙耳失聰,要在醫院療養。他之死,確有許多疑點:-

 

  其一,李旺陽死前曾接受香港有線電視採訪,提到自己在獄中受到殘酷對待,而該採訪在六四前夕播出後,邵陽當局派出十多名武警到醫院看守他,並且不准家屬陪護。他之死,會否與此採訪有關﹖

 

  其二,李旺陽被親屬發現死時,是面向窗口站立,頸上綁有一條布條,另一端纏在窗簾上,雙腳沒有離地,而從照片上觀察,他當時頸上布條所打繩結,為專業攀山者慣常使用,以其殘疾狀況應無能力打此繩結,因此上吊自殺的可能性甚低。

 

  其三,李旺陽死後,屍體便被馬上運走,其死亡時間和死因,本須等驗屍報告才知真相,但如今屍體已被迅速火化,查無可查,大有毀屍滅跡之嫌。

 

  其四,李旺陽生前朋友都說,李的意志堅定,毅力不同尋常,生性樂觀,不會輕易自尋短見。而在他死前訪問他的有線電視記者林幼誠哭著說,李旺陽思想清晰,生命力強,不似有輕生念頭。

 

  其五,正如本港快要離任的食物及衛生局局長周一嶽指出,以李旺陽性格,即使自殺也應會留下遺書,任何人如要犧牲自己去做驚天動天的事,應會留下遺言。

 

  由於有此五大疑點,李旺陽含冤而死,大有可能。香港雖行一國兩制,港人仍擔心當局對李旺陽事件的處理手法,將來會引申到港人身上,可以理解。但港人的抗議會有甚麼影響﹖港區人大代表,也是只能去信至人大委員長吳邦國,轉達港人的關注,當局若不瞅不睬,或做點官樣文章,能奈其何﹖

 

  但中央至今對李旺陽之死仍噤若寒蟬,是否另有玄機﹖此事顯然直接與湖南公安局有關,而公安局上面,則是中共的政法委員會。1980 年才正式成立的政法委,本為中共憲法所無,它管轄著公安局、檢察院、法院和司法局等所有「法權」部門,在江澤民時代,其權力日益膨漲,而近年來不斷擴大的武警部隊甚至可以與軍隊抗衡,儼然成為第二軍事機構,造成胡、溫中央「跛脚鴨」的現象。

 

  本來政法委與中央已成兩條路線鬥爭,而薄熙來事件打壓了政法委勢力,故李旺陽之死會否是政法委的一次反撲,而成「一石三鳥」之計﹖一鳥是針對異見人士,消除平反六四呼聲﹔二鳥是讓港人群情洶湧,給胡、溫中央製造麻煩﹔三鳥是此事勢必要追究到湖南省委書記周強,而此人是共青團出身,正是胡、溫要扶植上位的人,但如今他可能要背黑鍋了,否則便會激怒民情。港人只知義憤填膺,不知此中也許涉及極左派與改革派的政治角力。

 

2012年6月7日 星期四

Jobs Tracker Holds Steady - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-06-07

This week's economic data have brought few surprises, and The New York Times weekly jobs tracker shows no change: Moody's Analytics forecasts average monthly job growth of 157,000 in the six months leading up to Election Day.

Economists at Moody's note that the labor market has weakened in recent months, after a surprising burst of hiring during the unusually warm winter. But the economic data since last Friday's disappointing jobs report, including this morning's report on jobless claims, have not been as bad as the jobs report was. Economists still expect job growth to accelerate in June.

The Moody's economists add:

June will be telling. Any weather-related payback has run its course and we should get a clean assessment of the health of the job market in June .

Layoffs are not holding back the labor market, rather its businesses reluctance to hire. Hiring plans in our weekly business confidence survey have weakened but are holding up reasonably well given the volatility in global equity markets and uncertainty surrounding Europe.

Also, U.S. productivity has declined in three of the past five quarters, including the first quarter of this year. Companies have exhausted their workforces and will now need to add more employees in order to keep up with demand. Because businesses have the financial wherewithal to hire, the missing piece is confidence.

The projected pace of hiring suggests a close election between President Obama and Mitt Romney.



Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/jobs-tracker-holds-steady/?pagewanted=print

曾蔭權辭職與否也難除污 / 論盡中港台 by 岑逸飛

7 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

  下月任期屆滿的特首曾蔭權,被審計署揭發在07年上任至今年四月,外訪次數達55次,而由港府支付的住宿費,有41晚入住總統套房,五年來總開支超過一千萬元,且無足夠理據解釋入住總統套房的原因。

 

  按本港公務員離港公幹,可按政府《公務員事務規例》申請膳宿津貼,若酒店住宿費用超過津貼六成,需符合工作需要和沒有其他較便宜酒店選擇為理由,向部門首長申請調高金額。 如今曾蔭權此舉,顯然是揮霍了本港納稅人的血汗錢。

 

  對於特首揮霍一事,曾蔭權上周已當眾揮淚致歉,說明此事屬實,對他並無抺黑,只是他的道歉,未能平息公憤,一來其道歉不代表他真有誠意,二來即使他真有誠意,其誠意有多大也成疑問,如今要求曾蔭權立即下台的呼聲愈叫愈響,稱他為「貪曾」。

 

  就特首外訪開支過高,民主黨將於周五(六月八日)內務委員會提出不信任動議,現時已有23名議員簽名彈劾,相信動議不難通過,但特首在6 月30日便要滿任,而立法會能否排期在此日之前辯論,則是未知數,因現時已累積大量議案要討論,除非曾蔭權因彈劾而引咎自動辭職則另當別論。

 

  有種意見認為,特首尚餘任期不足一月,且恰好是新舊政府交接時刻,所以理應對曾蔭權有所包容,放他一馬。只是曾蔭權犯的不是小錯,他雖是特首,並不表示他就有特權,任何人要受到公平對待,是香港的核心價值。難怪有市民堅持他需要辭職,給公眾一個交代,以及給日後當政者一個警惕。

 

  古人教導當官的務須清廉。所謂「清廉」,指的是清白正直,奉公守法,不受財物,拒絶腐蝕,如《呂氏春秋˙忠廉》所說:「臨大利而不易其義,可謂廉矣」,而大利固然如是,小利又何嘗不然﹖漢代劉向有「受魚失祿」的故事,謂「昔者有餽魚於鄭相者,鄭相不受。或謂鄭相曰:『子嗜魚,何故不受?』對曰:『吾以嗜魚,故不受魚。受魚失祿,無以食魚;不受得祿,終身食魚。』」

 

  意思是說,鄭相喜歡吃魚,有人送給他,他不接受,有人問他,為甚麼不收下?鄭相說,我因為愛吃魚,所以不收別人送的魚,收下魚丟官,就沒有薪俸買魚吃。不收魚才能保有官位,一輩子都有魚吃。這故事是教訓人不要貪小失大,接受小好處,卻把飯碗弄丟了。可見曾蔭權沒有智慧,他想住總統套房,大可自掏腰包,何必貪圖公家津貼﹖

 

  古人常講「公生明,廉生威」,所謂「一生正氣,兩袖清風」,是「清廉」的最好詮釋。而「清廉」的對立面叫「貪枉」,指的是貪污受賄,徇情枉法,假公濟私。而且不可不知,任何人處於領導位置,必然會面臨金錢和權力的考驗,時間久了,是非榮辱易錯位,定力日漸衰退,一旦耐不住寂寞,忍不住清苦,經不住誘惑,就會進入貪賄的「地雷區」,而前功盡棄,全盤皆輸。

 

  無論如何,不管特首曾蔭權辭職與否,他所蒙受的政治污名,歷史上勢難抹除。貪枉是陷阱,它所帶來的是黑暗,害人害己留罵名。

 

2012年6月1日 星期五

The Spring Slowdown Has Arrived - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-06-01

Friday's jobs report was the most important in a while - and it was terrible.

When the jobs market weakened in March and April, economists could tell a sensible story about why the weakening wasn't as severe as it looked. The unusually warm weather had caused people to spend more money than they had planned, pulling forward economic activity - and hiring - into late 2011 and early 2012. The slowdown in March and April seemed as if it might simply be payback, rather than a truly worrisome new trend.

But you can't tell that story anymore. Some combination of problems - Europe's new troubles, the rise in gas prices from several months ago, the continued cuts in government employment, the continued hangover from the financial crisis - has clearly slowed the economy. You can look at either survey that the Labor Department does, of businesses or households, and you can look at any time period. The message is the same.

For the third straight year, the economy has fallen into a spring slump.

Over the last three months, the economy has added an average of only 96,000 jobs a month, down from a three-month average of 252,000 in February. The growth of the last three months is the weakest since August. It's weaker than the three-month growth in most of 2011 and half of 2010.

Job growth in the private sector has slowed, while the federal government and local governments are cutting workers. (State governments are no longer cutting, but they are not adding many, either.)

What happens now? Don't expect much action from Congress, despite the talk you will hear on Friday. The jobs numbers will certainly raise the odds of further action by the Federal Reserve, but it's not clear by how much. Perhaps most important, the decisions of European policy makers loom even larger now.



Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/the-spring-slowdown-has-arrived/?pagewanted=print

Jobs Forecast Shifts the Electoral Outlook - NYTimes.com by David Leonhardt

2012-06-01

The disappointing jobs report released Friday suggests that the economy is weaker than most analysts thought - and that job growth in coming months will be weaker.

Forecasts from Moody's Analytics, which we are updating weekly on this blog, now suggest that average monthly job growth in the six months before the election will be 157,000. (Those six months include May, the month for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its initial estimate this morning.) The forecast is down from 184,000 just a week ago.

Even the newly sober forecast assumes that the economy will pick up next month and add 150,000 jobs, compared with only 69,000 in May. Why the predicted uptick? Moody's economists note that other indicators of the labor market - initial jobless claims, a monthly survey by the payroll processor ADP, regional Federal Reserve surveys, and the pace of growth in gross domestic product - suggest that job growth should be faster than it was last month. "Odds are the labor market is better than it appears, but only modestly," the economists wrote in a blog post on Friday.

Going by history, monthly job growth of 157,000 would suggest that the economy would be roughly neutral in the presidential race, pointing to a very close election. But there is no question that the odds of a 2012 mini-boom that would help President Obama have fallen markedly in the last few months. And unless job growth accelerates substantially - and quickly - from its May pace, the economy will make Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, a favorite.

"The bottom line is that the U.S. recovery has hit another wall," the Moody's economists wrote. "Until Europe resolves its crisis and U.S. lawmakers address the fast-approaching fiscal cliff, the economy will continue to struggle."



Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/jobs-forecast-shifts-the-electoral-outlook/?pagewanted=print